The biggest increase is in the price of natural gas. The US is a net exporter of natural gas.
But the US imports from Canada to serve the northern US and exports to Mexico to serve northern Mexico.[1]
So there's cross-border traffic for economic reasons.<p>More pipelines could eliminate this. Texas flares off unwanted natural gas.[2] Tariffs will provide an incentive to collect that. But they won't be built if the tariffs aren't long-term.<p>That's a more general problem. Manufacturing and extraction won't come back to the US unless businesses are convinced this is a long term change, not a bargaining point. This action was taken under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.[3] That's temporary, at least in theory. It's the most expansive use of the IEEPA ever. There will probably be court challenges. The challenges probably won't succeed.[4]<p>[1] <a href="https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/archive/analysis_publications/ngpipeline/impex_map.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/archive/analysis_publications...</a><p>[2] <a href="https://today.tamu.edu/2020/08/03/the-problem-with-natural-gas-flaring/" rel="nofollow">https://today.tamu.edu/2020/08/03/the-problem-with-natural-g...</a><p>[3] <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Emergency_Economic_Powers_Act" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Emergency_Econom...</a><p>[4] <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45618" rel="nofollow">https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45618</a>
2023 review of Robert Lighthizer book, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/16/trump-trade-war-robert-lighthizer-china-economic-policy/" rel="nofollow">https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/16/trump-trade-war-robert-...</a><p><i>> he proposes truly radical policy recommendations to delink the United States and China. He would hike tariffs to towering levels, end the benefits China has received from the United States for joining the World Trade Organization (WTO), cut off investment between the nations, block Chinese social media companies, halt cooperation on technology—and keep the measures in place until China’s trade surplus, now nearly $400 billion, disappears. In other words, for decades if not forever.</i>
Would anyone care to also vouch for Animats top level comment here ( <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42915372">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42915372</a> ) - I have as it appeared to be flagged dead for no good reason ( I suspect a super user <i>might</i> have fat fingered another intended action ).<p>Seems bad form to kill a good faith comment made with effort, at least disagree or counter, etc.
I would just like Trump to be honest with his supporters about what tariffs really are and what they entail.<p>He repeatedly implies that these are fees that other countries will shoulder to “bring them into compliance.”<p>The truth is (as I’m sure you all know) these are fees that <i>we</i> pay to the federal government separately when we import goods from these countries. Other countries don’t pay a dime.<p>On top of that, supply chains don’t (or can’t) change at the drop of a hat. Large scale onshoring takes time and investment.<p>So the reality for the average American is that the crippling inflation we’ve endured for the last 3 years is not going away, and we’re going to pay an extra 25% on top of it for the vast majority of our imported goods (which is basically everything nowadays).<p>The thing I can’t figure out is if he really doesn’t know how tariffs work, or if he’s just a liar. Either way it doesn’t make him look good.<p>And from any reasonable analysis I’ve seen, I just don’t understand how this is going to bring anything back home. It’s just going to raise prices and cause more suffering for those who can least afford it.<p>But I think most people understand that it’s not actually about accomplishing any goal in particular or about solving any problem, it’s just a bro flex.<p>Awesome. Your guy can flex. Congratulations. All your shit just went up 25%, so now you’re paying too. Elections have consequences, as they like to say.
Even if we put the costs associated with Tariffs aside, I feel like a big PITA with Tariffs is enforcing and regulating everything. Tariffs don't seem like smaller government. Or maybe I'm wrong and this is all pretty easy to enforce and regulate?
Recent times have made me ashamed of what this site has become. I'm with jaquesm- this is ridiculous.<p>Tons of new accounts <1mo throwing the discourse out with the bath water and no one stopping them.<p>HN has become the LA of websites. Y'all think everyone thinks like you and anyone who doesn't is just <i>wrong</i>. But when it all burns down and people are cheering you will be left wondering why.<p>It has devolved and only gotten worse. I feel those of us who are more center have slowly but surely gone AFK and now all thats left are the two extremes.<p>Comments flagged for absolutely no reason, the attacks- it even feels like dang has gone hands-off lately.<p>Since Trump's election I've seen nothing but rule-breaking everywhere, and it has become absolutely rampant.<p>I dont even come here for the comments anymore. yall can have the burning garbage heap this has become- it was a good run while it lasted.
And to no surprise, this interesting post about a new phenomena is flagged.<p>HN needs a better way to protect against people who try to suppress stories about inconvenient truths.<p>But maybe that's the point, so the tech-bros can continue to support the fascist government?
Some excerpts:<p>> In the medium-to-long run, the size of the US economy is persistently 0.2% smaller in real terms under the package<p>> The average effective tariff rate would rise by approximately 6.1-6.3 percentage points under the proposal, once consumers and businesses substituted towards domestic or non-tariffed imported goods.<p>> The individual commodity with the largest price increase is natural gas. The average price rises 8.4%<p>> Crude oil prices rise 1.1% in the long run.<p>> Auto prices rise 3.9% on average,
Fiscal effects are what everyone focuses on, but tariffs have many other goals geopolitically. Those other goals include negotiations that may leave the economy better off than before.