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Probability of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032 is now 2.2%

30 pointsby marcodiego3 months ago

5 comments

generj3 months ago
After the success of DART, we should fund a DART variant to sit in cold storage for a quick asteroid response launch.<p>6 years isn’t necessarily a long time to develop and build a program like this from scratch. And deciding on every potential impact whether to start funding a deflector will cut even further into development time.
abeppu3 months ago
&gt; Find out why the impact probability is changing over time, and why it is likely to fall to zero:<p>If we can make (without new data) predictions about how future predictions (once we have more data) are likely to differ from the current prediction ... then why can&#x27;t we systematically incorporate that into the current prediction? I understand that the size&#x2F;shape of the &#x27;risk corridor&#x27; is related to our current uncertainty given the observations so far. But if we expect the corridor to both shrink and shift to exclude earth, that implies we have a rather informative prior about future observations, which isn&#x27;t &quot;baked in&quot; to the current corridor estimate. Right?
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dyauspitr3 months ago
A 1 in 45 chance is rather significant.
nico3 months ago
Just don&#x27;t look up
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throwaway815233 months ago
&quot;The chances that Lucifer&#x27;s Hammer would hit the Earth head-on were one in a million. Then one in a thousand. Then one in a hundred. And then ... even less.&quot;