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Aliens Cause Global Warming – Michael Crichton [pdf]

14 pointsby truro3 months ago

7 comments

kerp3223 months ago
The article had a promising start, and I had hoped it would offer some valuable insights to the present day anti-science movement in America, but it instead delivered the same kind of unscientific extrapolation it sought to criticize.<p>I am tempted to cut it some slack since it was written in the early 2000s, but i think the author fundamentally misunderstands the role of computer models and predictions in climate science. These models have always been treated with great scrutiny even by climate scientists, and in the present day thousands of plausible futures are considered in ensemble when thinking about the future of climate change. No, these models are not used to prove anthropogenic influence on climate. That was already accomplished without predictive models. Models are used as exploratory tools for planning and policy.<p>Despite the article’s issues, i did appreciate the author’s suggestions for removing bias from science:<p>“ Sooner or later, we must form an independent research institute in this country. It must be funded by industry, by government, and by private philanthropy, both individuals and trusts. The money must be pooled, so that investigators do not know who is paying them. The institute must fund more than one team to do research in a particular area, and the verification of results will be a foregone requirement: teams will know their results will be checked by other groups. In many cases, those who decide how to gather the data will not gather it, and those who gather the data will not analyze it.”
MostlyStable3 months ago
What utter nonsense<p>&gt;Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had<p>The majority of all human knowledge has the consensus of scientists. It is only the very bleeding edge that does not.<p>And equating the level of uncertainty in what kind and amount of dust particles produced by a burning city with the uncertainty in rate of abiogensis in the universe is misleading to the point of lying.<p>And those were only the two most ridiculous things I read in the first 5 pages before giving it up as a waste of time.
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trescenzi3 months ago
His rationale for ignoring climate change is a great example of a fallacy, I don’t know if it’s named, where the inaccuracy of extrapolations is used as a reason to fully discount them.<p>&gt; Let’s think back to people in 1900 in, say, New York. If they worried about people in 2000, what would they worry about? Probably: Where would people get enough horses? And what would they do about all the horseshit? Horse pollution was bad in 1900, think how much worse it would be a century later, with so many more people riding horses?<p>&gt; Now. You tell me you can predict the world of 2100. Tell me it’s even worth thinking about. Our models just carry the present into the future. They’re bound to be wrong. Everybody who gives a moment’s thought knows it.<p>He’s not wrong that predictions 100 years out are going to almost always be wrong. What he is wrong about is that fact is a reason to do nothing. It’s become a very common assertion that clearly since extrapolations are wrong it means we actively should do nothing.<p>We’re not not drowning in horse shit because extrapolations done in 1900 were wrong. We’re not drowning in horse shit because someone invented another tool which caused the extrapolation to be wrong.
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throwaway57523 months ago
The Earth is measurably warming in agreement with theory and slightly exceeding estimates, due to atmosphere CO2 levels.
userbinator3 months ago
Isn&#x27;t it just the illegal ones that do?
cs7023 months ago
There&#x27;s now too much evidence to deny that human activity has changed the earth&#x27;s climate, but... that doesn&#x27;t mean we can predict the state of the world 100 years from now, because long-term technological progress is unimaginable, and therefore, unpredictable. We don&#x27;t know how efforts to invent and develop more sustainable forms of energy will pay off over the next 100 years. In the words of the OP:<p>&gt; To predict anything about the world a hundred years from now is simply absurd. Look: If I was selling stock in a company that I told you would be profitable in 2100, would you buy it? Or would you think the idea was so crazy that it must be a scam?<p>&gt; Let’s think back to people in 1900 in, say, New York. If they worried about people in 2000, what would they worry about? Probably: Where would people get enough horses? And what would they do about all the horseshit? Horse pollution was bad in 1900, think how much worse it would be a century later, with so many more people riding horses? But of course, within a few years, nobody rode horses except for sport. And in 2000, France was getting 80% its power from an energy source that was unknown in 1900. Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and Japan were getting more than 30% from this source, unknown in 1900. Remember, people in 1900 didn’t know what an atom was. They didn’t know its structure. They also didn’t know what a radio was, or an airport, or a movie, or a television, or a computer, or a cell phone, or a jet, an antibiotic, a rocket, a satellite, an MRI, ICU, IUD, IBM, IRA, ERA, EEG, EPA, IRS, DOD, PCP, HTML, internet, interferon, instant replay, remote sensing, remote control, speed dialing, gene therapy, gene splicing, genes, spot welding, heat-seeking, bipolar, prozac, leotards, lap dancing, email, tape recorder, CDs, airbags, plastic explosive, plastic, robots, cars, liposuction, transduction, superconduction, dish antennas, step aerobics, smoothies, twelve-step, ultrasound, nylon, rayon, teflon, fiber optics, carpal tunnel, laser surgery, laparoscopy, corneal transplant, kidney transplant, AIDS. None of this would have meant anything to a person in the year 1900. They wouldn’t know what you are talking about. Now. You tell me you can predict the world of 2100.<p>The other big thing that the OP is right about is this:<p>&gt; Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.
truro3 months ago
Pseudoscience has run amok.
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