Musk is currently claiming that Tesla will have driverless robotaxis on the road in June 2025.[1]<p>Be afraid. Be very afraid.<p>Tesla is in a bind. They've been promising self driving Real Soon Now since 2016, with occasional fake demos. Meanwhile, Waymo slowly made it work, and is taking over the taxi and car service industry, city by city.<p>This is a huge problem for Tesla's stock price and Musk's net worth. Now that everybody in automotive makes electric cars, that's not a high-margin business any more. Tesla is having ordinary car company problems - market share, build quality, parts, service, unsold inventory. Tesla pretends they are a special snowflake and deserve a huge P/E ratio, but that's no longer the reality.<p>Tesla doesn't want to test in California because of "regulation". This is bogus. The California DMV is rather lenient on testing driverless cars, and California was the first state to allow them. There was no new legislation, so DMV just copied the procedures for human drivers with a few mods.
Companies can get a "learner's permit" for testing with a safety driver easily, and quite a few companies have done that. The next step up is the permit for testing without a safety driver, which is comparable to a regular driver's license. It's harder to get, and there are tests. About a half dozen companies have reached that point. No driving for hire at that level. Finally there's the deployment license, which Waymo and Zoox have. That's like a commercial drivers license, and is hard to get and keep. Cruise had one, but it was revoked after a crash where someone was killed.<p>That's what really scares Tesla. The California DMV can and will revoke or suspend an autonomous driving license just like they'd revoke a human one. Tesla can't just pay off everyone involved and go on.<p>Waymos are all over San Francisco and Los Angeles, dealing with heavy traffic, working their way around double-parked cars, dodging bikes, skateboarders, and homeless crazies, backing out when faced with an oncoming truck in a one lane street, and doing OK in complex urban settings. Tesla has never demoed that level of performance. Not even close.<p>[1] <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/tesla-robotaxis-by-june-musk-turns-texas-hands-off-regulation-2025-02-10/" rel="nofollow">https://www.reuters.com/technology/tesla-robotaxis-by-june-m...</a>