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Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

126 pointsby nabaraz3 months ago

45 comments

hardwaregeek3 months ago
Thinking Basketball is one of my favorite resources for basketball analysis. He recently made a video debunking myths about the modern game [1]. While yes, there’s far more analytics and knowledge in the game, it hasn’t lead to monotony or poor quality. It’s instead resulted in a Cambrian explosion of tactics, counter tactics, and really diverse team strategies. But the commentary and analysis in mainstream basketball hasn’t caught up, so your average viewer is watching a chess match but not even understanding the basic moves. Which leads to frustration and confusion.<p>[1]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;fp4but75EjY?si=YdOqZZ5-sH6lQHd9" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;fp4but75EjY?si=YdOqZZ5-sH6lQHd9</a>
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meisel3 months ago
This article presents a readable overview of today’s NBA trends, but IMO is too absolute in its judgment. Basketball is not a solved sport. There is still innovation, for example with OKC’s historically good defense that relies on playing 5 smaller but faster players. There are still good all-around players. There are still people that hit a lot of mid range shots. We have trends going the other way, sure, but they have their own set of tradeoffs and are neither a total solution nor totally embraced in the NBA. Teams will continue to evolve based on the talents of people at their disposal and their own innovative ideas.
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jordanmorgan103 months ago
This reads as someone who looks at data but doesn’t actually play basketball, coach basketball or generally know basketball. Numbers can only tell you so much, and 2025 Celtics and the rise of Steph have led to more 3s but the <i>sport</i> of basketball is not as predictable as the author suggests. For example, look at the college game, which doesn’t reflect this trend as much as the NBA does.
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deeg3 months ago
I play and watch a lot of basketball and this article seems to be written by someone who doesn&#x27;t do either.<p>The idea that players are more specialized is wrong. In the 90s there were plenty of defense-only players like Denis Rodman and Ben Wallace; they might not start in today&#x27;s NBA, let alone make all-star teams, because they are too one-dimensional.<p>A good counter to these arguments is made on the Thinking Basketball podcast. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=fp4but75EjY" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=fp4but75EjY</a>
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Xenoamorphous3 months ago
&gt; Recently, teams have realized three-pointers have higher point value despite their lower scoring percentage.<p>This was such an eye-opener for me. A high-stakes sport like basketball&#x2F;the NBA went on <i>for decades</i> without realising the simple math that three pointers are more valuable than two-pointers if you just do the basic math. How many areas in our lives are yet to be optimised with really basic math?
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jackschultz3 months ago
Stolen bases in baseball is similar to this. In 2023, MLB made two rule changes with stealing being at all time lows (and them thinking fans love stolen bases): 1) Limiting the number of pickoff attempts by pitchers, and 2) Slight enlarging of the bases. Take a look at the jump[0].<p>It&#x27;s been interesting to follow some changes teams have made the past two seasons where teams are figuring out how to better time steals when a pitch is thrown, and which players to go after. For example, pitchers with slow releases and bad catchers.<p>Base running aggressiveness that some teams have been doing as well. The value of going 1st to 3rd on a single is massive and getting speed, and judgement and wanting your players to do that will be more and more valued.<p>I actually searched &quot;base running aggressiveness&quot; to see what articles had to say, and two months ago Statcast put in a new stat called &quot;Net Bases Gained&quot;[1]. Crazy.<p>This mimics the changes in NBA talked about here, where value in players changes over times when new ways of playing show their value. It&#x27;s kind of like the 4 minute mile though, where until someone went out and was able to run under 4 minutes &#x2F; make all those 3s &#x2F; run that aggressive on the base paths &#x2F; go for it on more 4th downs, teams are scared to be the first.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.baseball-reference.com&#x2F;leaders&#x2F;SB_leagues.shtml" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.baseball-reference.com&#x2F;leaders&#x2F;SB_leagues.shtml</a> [1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.mlb.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;breaking-down-statcast-s-new-baserunning-stats" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.mlb.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;breaking-down-statcast-s-new-baseru...</a>
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tclancy3 months ago
Ah, this is the current grouse about the league, that it is all pace and space and somehow the art is lost. Sports go through eras. I will simply assume the author was not alive to watch Pat Reilly’s Knicks play their version of juego bonito, but while the over reliance on threes can make individual games hard to watch, the league has more talent that I can remember and there are so many fun players. It is bold to declare basketball is now deterministic in Year Two of Wemby and with all the other people capable of doing things we thought unique a generation ago. Plus there are some great minds as coaches right now. I think Spolestra, Daigneault and Mazzula will have something to say about how the game is played.
grandempire3 months ago
E sports actually gave me a lot of insight into regular sports which decreased my interest. The real power is with the league, not the players. And they steer the sport to promote business engagement. If the sport is hyper optimized and boring they will change the rules. If teams from smaller markets keep winning they will do what they need to, to help other teams win.<p>Playing sports is a fun activity to get exercise, it’s not worth getting emotionally invested in teams or leagues.
beoberha3 months ago
I don’t think this is a particularly well written article, but I sort of agree with the sentiment. Basketball just isn’t THAT complex and the talent pool is homogenous enough that most teams can find these archetypes and build rosters that get you to the playoffs.<p>That said, trends are cyclical. Look at the role of the running back in the NFL. There will always be outlier players like Shaq who will buck the trends and exploit matchups.
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necovek3 months ago
While there is obvious winning strategy, rule changes around salary caps have already limited any one team&#x27;s ability to dominate like GSW did for a couple years.<p>They mention Boston Celtics, but they are only a single time champion, and we can see plenty other teams with good chances to beat them.<p>And I&#x27;d argue we are moving further away from specialization: now centers are required to shoot 3 pointers at a high clip and high percentage, they have high number of assists (it&#x27;s not just Jokic, look at Iannis, Sabonis...).<p>And centers need to defend smaller, faster players when switching, just like smaller players need to defend centers.
streptomycin3 months ago
<i>Danny Green is probably the father of [the 3-and-D] model, with his 40% career three-point field goal percentage and he also made into all-defensive team.</i><p>Obviously people shot fewer 3s back then, but as far as I remember, Bruce Bowen was really the first 3-and-D player back in the 90s.<p><i>Gone are the days of an all-around player. There is no longer a need for a player who does everything. Look at players like Kobe Bryant and Lebron James (early career); they not only scored but guarded defense, caught rebounds and played the role of playmakers.</i><p>Not sure how true that is. People sometimes call the modern style &quot;heliocentric&quot; - one star who makes the offense work, surrounded by a bunch of role players. These star players often do basically everything, albeit most are better at some things than others. But that&#x27;s always been true, stars in the old days were not always perfectly balanced.<p>And stars these days have a ton of variability. Look at the best players in the league - Jokic, Shai, Giannis, Luka, Embiid (when healthy..) - those guys all play very different styles of basketball, and that&#x27;s awesome!<p>But I do agree with the overall point of the article. I find it annoying when I&#x27;m watching a game and so many possessions there&#x27;s just not much happening. A couple passes around the perimeter, someone jacks up a moderately contested 3, rinse and repeat. Not the most exciting basketball. That doesn&#x27;t happen every play, and there&#x27;s still plenty of exciting plays and players, but it happens a lot more than it used to.
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lawgimenez3 months ago
I think the NBA needs to focus on how to make more people tune in to the first half of the season. And player’s load management is getting ridiculous.
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bmitc3 months ago
Not a particularly well written article, but I haven&#x27;t ever really believed that jacking up threes is a global maximum in the basketball optimization problem.<p>For example, if you have a team that posts up in the middle, actually moves the ball around and not just around the perimeter, and utilizes the shot clock well, this is going to wear down a team by forcing them to play rough defense, reducing the effectiveness of the three point shot over the course of the game.<p>Part of the reason of the decline e of interesting basketball is the insane relaxation of rules. Offensive players can travel, carry, flop, ect. all the while knowing that defensive players are handicapped in the contact they can initiate.
asimpletune3 months ago
I think this article doesn’t do the sport justice. Modern basketball is amazing and light years ahead of where it was even ten years ago. Watch “explain one play” on YouTube and you’ll begin to understand how much thought goes into even 5 seconds of normal basketball. The craziest part is how teams now days know how to punish a mistake, and virtually every point comes from very slight mistakes happening. Being too slow to close out, miscommunication on the dribble handoff, size mismatch, etc… in this way it’s like chess where you make threats but they’re just threats until your opponent commits an error. You still have to be able to punish the error.<p>A big conversation I see now days is what’s “wrong” with the modern nba, with too many 3’s being the most common refrain. That’s silly. I will tell you what’s actually wrong about the nba. They’re playing the most amazing basketball the worlds ever seen, but the entertainment ecosystem around them hasn’t changed at all. Literally they just talk about the stupidest stuff, like who’s the GOAT, instead of actually educating their audiences about the incredible level of play that exists now days.<p>You could argue that people aren’t interested in seeing that, but I don’t think we will ever know until it’s been tried. Instead, sports pundits are just being negative about the sport and filling the airwaves with low effort, toxic cliches while providing zero information about the brilliance we’re seeing. As to why I think people would actually care to know, I think it’s because once you’re exposed to this stuff it sticks and then you can’t unsee it. You start to notice the patterns and enjoy the game again.<p>So anyways sorry for the rant but it drives me nuts. Basketball is so cool right now once you start to get what you’re actually seeing and players can be so smart too. It’s amazing.
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rambambram3 months ago
I haven&#x27;t looked at the NBA in more than 20 years and recently started watching it again. I was shocked. Not necessarily by all the three point shots, but more about the carrying of the ball, the multiple extra steps that players take before dunking or laying up, and getting extra free throws when it&#x27;s the offensive players who rams into a still standing defender. If I want to watch rugby or ice hockey, then I watch rugby or ice hockey, this jumping into defenders has nothing to do with basketball if you&#x27;d ask me. And this Donkic trade to the Lakers because of gambling money, ughh... it&#x27;s an ugly organisation.
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RugnirViking3 months ago
I&#x27;m surprised the author is so upset about the specialisation of players. Soccer has that in spades and it&#x27;s endlessly fascinating because of it.
11235813213 months ago
Basketball rules will change. It&#x27;s becoming a more widespread view that the corner 3 should be eliminated, and perhaps the 3 line moved back in general. In the meantime, threat of 3s makes proactive defense more necessary and that&#x27;s exciting to watch. Defense has evolved so much since the Jordan era. Some matches are not exciting right now, though.
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bentt3 months ago
This article has reduced it too far. Yes, the game has gotten optimized... for the moment. However a few years ago the complaint was that it was only about 3s. Now it&#x27;s about 3s... and defense... and floor spread... and layups... and small ball... and big men who can shoot the three... and rim protectors... and it goes on and on. There&#x27;s no one thing and the number of combinations of tactics, players, and circumstances make it pretty dynamic.<p>If there&#x27;s any problem with basketball right now it&#x27;s that Adam Silver is trying too many radical things and leaving history behind in uncomfortable ways. I mean, he&#x27;s talking about going to 10 minute quarters! That will invalidate basically every record ever. I could go on and on, but the NBA game itself is not broken.
sylens3 months ago
Interesting to see this pop up on HN because this topic has dominated some sports circles over the last year- the NBA has become unwatchable for some, as teams like last year’s champion, the Boston Celtics, just throw up three’s constantly, regardless if they feel confident that they’ll go in.
pfisherman3 months ago
This article was written by someone who has very little knowledge or appreciation of the history of the game. The NBA has always been a league of specialists revolving around a few superstars with a couple of “glue guys” thrown into the mix.
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atmosx3 months ago
&gt; In the end, it’s all about optimizing every ball possession.<p>While I partially agree with the article&#x27;s stance, you can&#x27;t optimize for this[^1] or this[^2] because they’re unpredictable—historically great outliers that defy averages and planning.<p>[^1] Luka Doncic WCF G5 against the Twolves <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=5H3bGEXk3GA" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=5H3bGEXk3GA</a><p>[^2]: Giannis Antetokoumpo scoring 50p in G6 of the 2021 NBA Finals (featuring 17&#x2F;19 FTs) <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=wHPLeWsAQw4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=wHPLeWsAQw4</a>
Tarsul3 months ago
The point about 3 pointer shots being worth more than 2 pointer shots is generally true. However, in the playoffs, when the going gets tough, usually the jitters set in and the teams hit a lot less 3 pointers than in the regular season. Especially with the season on the line in endgames[1]. Which means: In those cases easy baskets and also mid-range shots (from people who are used to making those) regain their importance. Thus, if you have your playoffs in mind, don&#x27;t forget to plan for those middies!<p>[1]the worst were the conference finals 2018 game 7s: Cavs (9&#x2F;35); Celtics (7&#x2F;39). Rockets (9&#x2F;44); Warriors (9&#x2F;33).
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refulgentis3 months ago
This has many &quot;not even wrong&quot; observations, and if it was, is so surface-level as to be meaningless regardless. It&#x27;d be like reading how software engineering has evolved into a game of prompting AI.
rurban3 months ago
&gt; The Golden State Warriors, led by Stephen Curry, probably jump-started this trend with 34 three-pointer attempts per game in the 2018-19 season, twice as much from five years ago.<p>No, it was Daryll Morey&#x27;s Houston Rockets around the James Harden era, who started advanced analytics player selection and shot selection. They started with enormous video analytics and Morey runs the yearly Analytics Sports Conference.<p>Moreyball was way more advanced than Moneyball. You go by the three and die by the three. He still didn&#x27;t win a championship though.
layer83 months ago
Sean Carroll had an interesting podcast episode with Daryl Morey on that topic (among others): <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.preposterousuniverse.com&#x2F;podcast&#x2F;2021&#x2F;03&#x2F;15&#x2F;138-daryl-morey-on-analytics-psychology-and-basketball&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.preposterousuniverse.com&#x2F;podcast&#x2F;2021&#x2F;03&#x2F;15&#x2F;138-...</a>
xdavidliu3 months ago
&gt; In the past, the team built its roster around a big name like Shaq. Most of the offense were from the center.<p>This is the first time I&#x27;ve ever heard this.<p>&gt; they not only scored but guarded defense, caught rebounds and played the role of playmakers.<p>This is also the first time I&#x27;ve ever heard the phrases &quot;guarded defense&quot; and &quot;caught rebounds&quot;.
exabrial3 months ago
I find basketball (College and NBA) incredibly hard to watch. Beyond the basic necessary ball handling skills, the games are largely decided by the acting for the refs.<p>I much prefer the street ball route: make it a contact sport and stop the flopping.
threemux3 months ago
This happens at times in all sports. The NFL is a prime example. QBs were lighting up big, heavy defenses with deep passes. Then teams ran two high safeties to prevent this. This year, offenses adjusted again to run more against the smaller linebackers and nickel&#x2F;dime packages.
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Mountain_Skies3 months ago
&gt;Rise of 3-and-D model<p>Maybe the solution is with a different type of 3D model, namely the Wilson 3D printed basketball. It has more drag than the regulation basketball, making long shots more difficult. This could restore the balance between long field goals and shots near the basket.
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sandworm1013 months ago
Teams try to win, but basketball as a sport is entertainment. The opposing teams actually work <i>together</i> to put on a great show for the fans. If those fans don&#x27;t want to see an endless series of 3-point shots, basketball will indeed change its rules.
andrepd3 months ago
We see this a lot in football as well. Some say it&#x27;s &quot;lost its flair&quot;, I still can&#x27;t tell if it&#x27;s rose tinted glasses or if truly something was lost in with the omnipresence of data-driven optimisation. I tend towards the latter.
legitster3 months ago
Professional athletes are freaks of nature being given millions of dollars to optimize for the problem. If you give them an unopposed chance to score, you&#x27;re going to have very unfun sports.<p>The same problem is happening in baseball pitching and football kicking.
krustyburger3 months ago
Even if true this has nothing to do with the value of the sport to the spectator or the competitor. Seeing world-class athletes push themselves to their physical limits is intrinsically exciting even if everyone is on the same page on how to win.
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Animats3 months ago
So Moneyball has come to basketball. Optimize the team, not star power.
111010100011003 months ago
Once I realized that I could use gillespie&#x27;s algorithm to model a basketball game, I felt like I was &#x27;trading on the inside&#x27;.
nabaraz3 months ago
I personally think the 3-point line needs to be uniform distance. It is 22 feet from the corner compared to ~24ish feet from the center.
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littlestymaar3 months ago
&gt; Gone are the days of an all-around player.<p>Yet Wemby is the most hyped young player since LeBron because of his incredible versatility.
brm3 months ago
Knowing what to do in a situation and being able to do it in a situation are two different things.
thakoppno3 months ago
My proposal to fix this is to automatically award a point for all non-reboundable free throws.
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ks20483 months ago
I read something about Go - that very unusual (maybe even considered bad) playing could beat the super-AIs. They are so tuned to opponents in a &quot;typical&quot; style, that they don&#x27;t know how to beat a player outside this distribution.<p>Maybe an NBA team will come up with something like that.
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waderyan3 months ago
Easy fix. Get rid of the corner threes and push the three point line back.
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mmooss3 months ago
The author does not know basketball, either watching or playing, which is evident from their claims and from their language.<p>&gt; Players are no longer do-it-alls; they are now given specialized roles.<p>&gt; they not only scored but guarded defense, caught rebounds and played the role of playmakers.<p>Anyone who even watches games would instinctively use different language. Nobody in basketball speaks this way.<p>As far as the veracity, I&#x27;d really need to see some data.<p>First, nothing in cutting edge, 3-and-D basketball says to stop playing defense. Defense is the D in 3-and-D.<p>As just one counter-example to the author&#x27;s claims, big players - centers and power forwards - have become more generalized. Instead of just playing near the basket on offense and defense, many now handle the ball, pass, and also shoot from outside - the old-style guys who lack those skills have taken big pay cuts. The primary ball-handler for the author&#x27;s local Golden State Warriors is Draymond Green, their center. The best player in the world is a center renowned especially for their passing, Nikola Jokic.<p>Wing players (small forwards and shooting guards) do it all. The local Golden State Warriors also have Steph Curry, the best shooter ever and an excellent ball-handler and passer. And they recently acquired Jimmy Butler, an all-star all-around player; here is the coach:<p><i>&quot;Jimmy, he&#x27;s a real deal,&quot; Kerr said. &quot;I mean, just a complete basketball player, methodical, under control all the time, plays at his own pace, never turns it over, sees the game and then can get to the line frequently. Great closer, not in the traditional sense where he&#x27;s going to be Kevin Durant and make four straight midrange jumpers, but it&#x27;s more of a complete game. Get to the line, make the right pass, get somebody else an open look, get a defensive stop, get a rebound. He&#x27;s a fantastic player.&quot;</i><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;abc7news.com&#x2F;post&#x2F;warriors-draymond-green-calls-new-teammate-jimmy-butler-franchise-changer&#x2F;15904858&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;abc7news.com&#x2F;post&#x2F;warriors-draymond-green-calls-new-...</a><p>What&#x27;s changed in the NBA is that 3-point shooting has become more valued, partly supported by analytics, partly because Steph Curry redefined what is possible for 3-point shooting for both playing and for being a star: Before Curry, every kid wanted to be Michael Jordan or others who made miraculous drives to the basket through crowds; after Curry, kids were heaving up shots from ridiculous distances, just like their hero.<p>You won&#x27;t be surprised to learn that many people say, &#x27;it&#x27;s not like the old days&#x27;, and are debating changing the rules to make everyone play like they did 20 years ago.<p>Supporting my theory of the author, here is their bio (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nabraj.com&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nabraj.com&#x2F;</a>)<p>&gt; Hi, I&#x27;m NT (Nabaraj T), a full-stack engineer in Northern California. ... ten years of professional experience<p>&gt; Besides software development, my interests are in embedded circuits and astronomy. I have started my startup to research space technologies. When not tangled with 1s and 0s, I usually watch football, cheering on Chelsea.
ano-ther3 months ago
I wouldn&#x27;t be that pessimistic. Just like Stephen Curry discovered the value of the three-point shot, someone will come along and spot an opportunity by going against the grain of today&#x27;s paradigm. Perhaps an AlphaGo for basketball will help to find it.
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mooreds3 months ago
Wish OP had presented some data beyond &quot;people are shooting more threes&quot;. From the bit of basketball youtube I&#x27;ve watched, there seems to be a bevy of data. I roll my eyes a bit at announcements like &quot;he&#x27;s the first person ever to have X points, Y assists and Z steals in 3 quarters&quot; but they are pulling that data from somewhere.<p>Would be really interesting to read about team records when they field a bunch of specialized players vs generalized players (due to injuries or foul trouble). That would be far more convincing.
timewizard3 months ago
Oh.<p>Is that why I don&#x27;t enjoy watching it at all anymore?