Pre-war heat pumps were in a steady climb and 2022 was a big jump. I'm certain sales will continue to rise and we can look at those two years as a short boost and reaction to extreme gas prices. I wouldn't be surprised if some homeowners replaced their ageing heating a few years early. Market share of heat pumps is still on the rise. Here's more data and a chart from 2013 onwards. <a href="https://www.ehpa.org/market-data/" rel="nofollow">https://www.ehpa.org/market-data/</a><p>Honestly I don't know why anyone still let's politicians talk or legislate anything related to energy. They killed the solar industry, keep coal alive, want to revive nuclear when we could already be fully solar/wind/batteries and sow distrust in heat pumps over oil and gas. I don't want to see private companies taking over either, but we saw great results from the german Bürgerrat Klima where 160 discussed everything climate and the results are well ahead of what politicians want to do.
It would have helped the story arc to show how many prior sales per economy and plausible saturation level. Remember not everyone is displacing gas, or has solar power, the two lead reasons to move. Or, has access to subsidy: this could be government initiatives being oversubscribed.<p>People who live in tenements and flats and apartment complexes have additional barriers around siting and common property access issues. They bedevil this, and FTTP especially in heritage listed townscapes.<p>I wonder how the communal heating models are playing out in Europe? They have wonderful economy of scale, but not all of them scavenge waste industrial heat.
> The once-obscure devices experienced a surge in popularity in Europe after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sent gas prices soaring.<p>This feels, ah, ahistorical. Looks like sales grew steadily from ~750k/y in 2013 to 1.5m/y in 2020, then surged. Hardly 'obscure'; at least in Ireland most new houses had them by the late 10s (it was quite difficult to meet the buildings energy performance directive without them).<p>What really happened in particularly 2021-2023 was that people were replacing existing non-eol gas boilers with heat pumps, as rising gas prices made this more financially attractive.