Duh. Between the chaos in Washington and the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater) we’re going to see a big crash, probably this year.<p>Tesla and Nvidia are both huge components of the overall market cap and drive alot of the yields in the last year or two. You’re one Elon scandal or Nvidia earnings miss away from a really bad day.<p>Healthcare is the other wildcard. For the last decade, medical practices of all kinds have consolidated into big regional networks that are interconnected. Many of them have cash flow challenges and the fucking around with Medicare/medicaid will drive some to insolvency. My one friend in the space is planning on 30% rif in some scenarios.<p>Be smart. Heads down at work and start unwinding your long positions and increasing cash holdings.
If you want data on it; the St Louis Fed has some really good stats for job postings on Indeed in various sectors going back to 2020. They're rough in a lot of industries:<p>IT Operations and Help Desk: <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPITOPHE" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPITOPHE</a><p>Software Development: <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE</a><p>Banking and Finance: <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPBAFI" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPBAFI</a><p>Hospitality and Tourism: <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPHOTO" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPHOTO</a><p>Scientific Research: <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSCREDE" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSCREDE</a><p>Electrical Engineering is going pretty well though: <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPELECENGI" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPELECENGI</a>
I feel this. A side effect has been a lot of unhappy people in my workplace. People clearly don't want to be here, but they can't move, and there's an air of discontent.
> Kyle M. K., a talent-strategy adviser at Indeed, told me. “Survive Until ’25” became an unofficial rallying cry for businesses across the country.<p><i>All</i> kinds of business? AFAIK that saying is/was specific to commercial real-estate, where nobody wants to admit that the valuation of the property might have gone down, and they're trying to delay and obscure it for long enough that they can pretend it never happened.
The article doesn't emphasize the biggest elephant in the room: The zero-interest economy ended and crashed the economy that rode on bloated valuations and stock prices. And now companies are gutting themselves to float the stock prices.
It's very similar to the US housing market, which is frozen with the fewest homes exchanging hands in at least 30 years.<p>Sellers don't want to sell because most of them are sitting on less than 3% mortgage rate. If they sell and buy a new home now, they'll have to pay 7%.<p>Buyers don't want to buy because of the 7% mortgage rate and the drastically higher housing prices since covid.<p>I think the job market is very similar to the housing market. People don't want to leave because no one is hiring. New people can't get hired because no one is leaving.
Employers are afraid to take new hires in unprecedented and unpredictable times. It's not going to get better until the daily news becomes boring again.
Employers too choosy. It's like everything else in the post-2010s economy: you have to be really talented to get ahead'; otherwise you are stuck or unemployed or menial jobs.
As a software dev should I even bother switching jobs? I really can’t stand my current one, but articles like this and ones about AI are pretty demotivating.
Europe is hiring: <a href="https://europa.eu/eures/portal/jv-se/home" rel="nofollow">https://europa.eu/eures/portal/jv-se/home</a><p>And companies in Europe still embrace home office often even in foreign countries:
<a href="https://euremotejobs.com/" rel="nofollow">https://euremotejobs.com/</a>
They are right about the tariff threats, but orange man is quick to roll those back.<p>Otherwise, it is hilarious to blame orange man for the current malaise. Biden provoked and escalated the Ukraine proxy war, with detrimental effects on energy prices and the world economy.<p>Trump <i>seemingly</i> tries to shut down that conflict, which would be a major boost to the world economy. Whether he'll go through with that against the powerful political interest groups is another question.