Beyond timeline predictions, what's interesting are the Singularity's hyperstitional effects - how the very concept creates real causal impacts in the present:<p>"The Singularity prediction ripples backwards through waves of pre-adaptation, responding at each stage to eventualities that are yet to unfold. Change unspools from out of the future, complicating the arrow of time." [0]<p>[0] <a href="https://retrochronic.com/#hard-futurism" rel="nofollow">https://retrochronic.com/#hard-futurism</a>
"Withing 12 months", then "few decades", then put in the mess AGI and artificial superintelligences. Reaching AGI, if ever, won't acheive singularity by itself. And there are more players in the game.<p>The only prediction that sounds like a big maybe, and with a lot of luck within a year, would be reaching something that will be labeled AGI by some actors. But from there to singularity there may be quite a distance, if ever is achieved.