Today:<p>- I go to the supermarket: the screen calling the next customer at the register and running Windows 11 (sic) crash all the time, so chaos.<p>- I can't make a bank transfer online because the transfer system is unavailable<p>- I walk in my street: the lights are turned on during the day and turned off at night (and I usually don't even notice the government related stuff anymore, it is hopeless)<p>I see computer related things in need of a serious fix everywhere, all the time. Most of those are "local" systems. But those companies won't recruit and empower anybody to fix it, because everybody got used to things not working.<p>In the meanwhile, engineers are told there is no more jobs for them "because of AI". But it seems the AI they were sold can't figure out lights need to be turned on at night and not during the day...
Why would you start the graph from 2020? The only thing it shows is that Covid was such a strange time.<p>Stretch the graph to 1995 and then we can talk.
Interesting would love to learn more about their methodology.<p>Like are they straight searching “software developer” on indeed?<p><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE</a><p>—-<p>It’s rough out there, I see former coworkers laid off last year and the year before still struggling to find work
Charted: The Decline of U.S. Software Developer Jobs after a recession<p>Charted: The Rise of U.S. Software Developer Jobs up to a new peak<p>Charted: The Decline of U.S. Software Developer Jobs from this peak
When you hear the AI folks screaming about "AGI" (Which is a scam), this is what they are really talking about.<p>The problem is that there will be less jobs and it won't recover and nothing to replace those lost jobs. Not even "UBI", which is unsustainable at a larger scale and really doesn't work at all.<p>Remember when the whole industry also was screaming about Jevon's paradox? Well, as AI gets more efficient, it benefits the LLM providers (not you) and creates <i>more</i> job-destroying AI (not more jobs). It enriches AI use-cases <i>for</i> companies that own LLMs or the systems that run them to <i>keep you</i> out of a job.<p>Even if 1 job is available, a growing list of candidates per job to compete and will just continue to increase.<p>You see, I hope you realized that the bullsh*t in AI, over-valuations and the the rapid race to zero are all factors that have not only caused this decline in SWE jobs, but will also cause a crash like it's the year 2000 + another AI winter.<p>Right now we are in late 1999 and just need a new surprise to reset the industry. Likely to happen before 2030.<p>So I'd prepare for that and you are 5 years early to do so before the "intelligence age" advances far into 2030, which is the dealine. [0]<p>[0] <a href="https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2025/digest/" rel="nofollow">https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-repo...</a>
Lots of college students will regret their CS degrees. And it's a shame because it's not an easy degree to get like, say, communications. Imagine all that hard work just to work at McDonalds.
In case anyone wonders why the peak was in 2022, which of course makes no sense if COVID really was the cause of a permanent decline.<p><a href="https://www.onlycfo.io/p/new-tax-rule-is-terrible-for-software" rel="nofollow">https://www.onlycfo.io/p/new-tax-rule-is-terrible-for-softwa...</a><p>TLDR: software jobs were tax free in the US until 2022, when congress who widely promised and were expected to repeal a Trump tax raise ... didn't. Now software engineers in the US are expensive for US companies and software engineers outside the US are 3x more expensive.<p>This was financial engineering by Trump. Not by him personally of course, but by GOP "strategists" that lowered taxes on the extremely wealthy.