Anyone want to share their opinion (backed by knowledge or not) on the probable effects of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the moon - and - whether Stephenson's /Seveneves/ is possible?<p>EarthSky: Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 3.8% chance of hitting the moon<p>https://earthsky.org/space/asteroid-2024-yr4-odds-hit-earth-torino-scale-2032/
Yawn. IIRC in Seveneves an 'unknown agent' caused the moon to shatter. I dunno even what it was exactly? Primordial Black hole?<p>Anyway, this thing is not bigger than a 10-storey building, according to latest information, as the article said.<p>Given the nearly infinite amount of impact craters of all sorts on the moon, while it is still unshattered, I guesstimate with my wet thumb and divining dick held into the winds of probability, that any Seveneves scenario is highly unlikely.<p>Except if the composition of that thing would be mainly 'Shatterium', but again, why?<p>So stop hyperventilating, relax, and maybe enjoy some fireworks in the future.