Robotaxis are "scheduled for volume production starting in 2026". Sure.<p>"On stage at the Tesla Autonomy Investor Day in Palo Alto, California, Musk boasted about Tesla’s self-driving technology, predicting his company will have more than 1 million robotaxis on the road next year." CNBC, 2019<p>[0] <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/elon-musk-any-other-car-than-a-tesla-in-3-years-like-owning-a-horse.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/elon-musk-any-other-car-than...</a>
Numbers:<p>- Q1 EPS $0.27, Est $0.43, wow, hard to remember a fumble this large for such a big company.
This is a big canary in the coal mine for US markets earning season, things are going to get really ugly.<p>- Q1 Revenue $19.3B, Est $21.7B<p>- Model 3 deliveries down 12%,<p>- Model Y deliveries down 12%<p>- CyberTruck deliveries down 24%<p>- production of Model 3 down 16%<p>- production of Model Y down 18%<p>- regulatory credits $600M for Q1<p>- powerwall passed 1GW in deliveries for the first time, that's positive<p>- Q1 gross automotive margins are at 12.5%<p>Notes:<p>- could Elon announcing he's leaving TSLA be the biggest single personal catalyst for a companies stock price, since Balmer announced he was leaving MSFT?<p>- They are providing guidance that tariffs will affect the power business more than the automotive business, which makes sense as North America makes up 5% of global Lithium-ion battery production and China makes up 84% of it<p>- Cybercab status is now "in construction"<p>- dropped their old sales guidance<p>- dropped their prediction that sales would grow on the year<p>- nothing in the deck about Elon staying on, but they did add a new risk about the changing political climate may affect their sales<p>- New Texas Lithium refining and cathode production plants are on track to start production next year
Watch For:<p>- Does Elon provide a hard target for when he starts working again?<p>- Energy storage has been growing, but batteries will be hit hard by tariffs, rare earths, does that hit energy storage yet?
or do we see a pump from pulling forward demand to beat tariffs?<p>- Any tie ins with xAI? Elon seems to be throwing everything he can to pump up xAI's valuation, he clearly has some loans now tied to its price<p>- Tone of earnings call, Typically earnings calls have been essentially blowing smoke up Elon's ass with no tough questions asked/answered at all.<p>Even one hard question would indicate that wall street has shifted from the Elon can do no wrong mindset<p>- Will TSLA blame tariffs for bad sales like other companies have?<p>- What will they say about a new Tesla models?<p>- China sales will dominate what the market thinks, Therefor Tesla will almost certainly not break them out,
If Tesla was trading on actual fundamentals, it'd be about $30/share. It's got like a 200x+ P/E ratio, and it's no longer a growth stock.
woof; huge drop all across the board. definitely looks like a bloodbath to me.<p>anecdotally, two people, who don't have EVs, reacted negatively to me renting a model 3 recently.<p>this was definitely not the case last year.<p>tesla has a reputation problem. they need to admit it.<p>i agree with the hivemind that this is 100% the reason behind the massive drop. given that they still have the best EVs on the market with the best EV supercharging network on the market, this is the only possible reason.
It's interesting the rationale within the update as to the decline, with no mention of political/reputational linkages. Obviously that is less tangible than those listed but it is interesting and of course unfavorable to disclose.<p>When the auditors come in EOFY they look at the various accounts and their opening/closing balances year on year and look to explain at a high level what has impacted the increase and decrease of those accounts in the current FY. They will certainly pick up on reputational and political reasons.