I speak Chinese, as disclosed on my user profile here. I have been reading the official Chinese press since the end of the Cultural Revolution, just after when Chiang Kai-shek (Jiang Jieshi) died and while Mao Tse-tung (Mao Zedong) was still alive. Chinese people have aspirations for freedom just like people in most parts of the world. Quite a few years ago, I heard a comment by a Chinese journalist that if all the people of China had full access to uncensored news, the Communist Party of China regime would last only a week.<p>Anyway, I've seen a culturally Chinese society living under a dictatorship turn into a democracy with a free press and free and fair elections that can turn a ruling party out of power. I've lived in Taiwan both under its dictatorship (a three-year stay in the early 1980s) and as it transfered power in a free election (another three-year stay, spanning the turn of the last century). People I know personally were imprisoned for leading peaceful street demonstrations on the way to Taiwan's democratization, but despite the dictatorial regime's attempts to stop diversification of political power, the people of Taiwan eventually gained an uncensored press, multiparty elections, and complete freedom to express their opinions in speech and by voting.<p>The presence of Taiwan as an alternative model puts as much pressure on the P.R.C. regime as the presence of West Germany put on the "Deutsche Demokratische Republik" regime to the east. China still has huge gaps in the common people's access to information. Provision of basic primary schooling, of mass communication, and especially of telephony and travel has been so backward in China for so long that according to an official Chinese government survey,<p><a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-03/07/content_5812838.htm" rel="nofollow">http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-03/07/content_5812838...</a><p>barely more than half of the population in China is even conversant in the national standard language. But word about official corruption and repression of people speaking up about corruption does spread through China by personal observation and word of mouth in dozens of dialects. That is enough to prompt change. China has gone out of its way to study how dictatorships have clung to power even in today's era of much freer flow of information, but if it desires to be economically strong and to have "soft power" influence on the world, China has no choice but to change its political system and press regulation to be more open to pluralism.
I guess no society can keep itself developing beyond a certain point without becoming a democracy. The point is simple: when the vast majority of population starts taking for granted that they will never face starvation (meaning: they never experienced real long-term hunger in their lifetime). For Soviet Union, it came in the late 1970s - with median age about 30 years back then, and last major famine with mass casualties in 1946, most people never knew the fear of hunger. They naturally moved up the Maslow ladder, demanding human rights and freedom, and while it took another 10 to 15 years to happen, it was inevitable. For China, that moment is probably still in the future, as far as i understand, mass hunger was still a norm in 1980s, so most people remember it, and they rather obey the oppressive government.
Can anyone with insight into Chinese politics comment on these observations? They seem salient, but China to me is just such a mystery that I never really know what to believe when I read press coverage about it.
The hard news parts are interesting. The commentary added seems to reflect (US-biased) wishful thinking. It'd sure be nice if China transitioned peacefully into a democratic egalitarian nation, but the evidence suggests it's heading more towards a Russia-like klepto-oligarcy.