Do you really want to be making this much money when you're 50?

The author is a bit naive in his cheerleading, extrapolating his situation in his location to a nation-wide situation. That is just simply not the case.<p>As a business-owner in my mid-40's, I travel around quite a bit. There are locations where the employment picture is similar to what the author describes. But what he describes is far from the norm in the places I travel to, or from what I hear from friends and old coworkers during lunches. Ageism, low-salaries, "sweatshop"-like/highly-political work environments, lack of diversity in companies/economic sectors, lack of interesting problems to solve. All are observations of mine, as well as old friends' concerns voiced softly after looking over their shoulder during lunches over the past year or two.<p>Very good IT people (programmers/developers, DBAs, infrastructure, the whole gamut) wanting to leave their current job, but wondering where to go, because their friends in other "just as bad" companies are looking too. Discovering they can still get interviews--but maybe not the job--after age 35; and discovering the difficulty in even getting interviews after age 40. Watching their companies hire either H-1Bs for 40-50% of what they're paid, or college interns (or even recent grads for intern salaries) for even less.<p>Yeah, people would like to be making this much money in technology when their 50. But in most places, it's a pipe-dream.

Money is about being good at something. I know of lawyers that barely scrape by on insurance law suits because all they know how to do is prey on the fear and pain of injured people. Such lawyers have to buy $500 suits and drive BMWs and belong to country clubs to stay presentable, and thus have to scrape by on 80-100k a year.<p>Similarly, I know carpenters and plumbers who will get the job done - and make a lot more than the aforementioned lawyers. These pros can demand hourly rates of anywhere from $60-$80, but more often will make $250-$500/hr by quoting a job price and doing it quickly. And it's no problem for them to drive to all their appointments in their 1997 Ford E series wearing flannel and jeans.<p>I could also introduce you to janitors that make six figures a year because they know how to penetrate insurance bureaucracies and get black mold cleanup jobs.<p>If money is your aim, pick a job out of a hat and be excellent at it - and not just the actual execution, but the promotion, estimation, and pricing of your talent too. If you can get into the 25th percentile of solving problems in your expertise, you'll be well compensated for it no matter what it is.

&#62;<i>"The fact is that your material well-being is rarely in jeopardy because of a missed deadline, so your reaction is fully up to you.</i>"<p>Much of what the author says is true, currently. This is a fantastic market for programmers, and anyone being born into this era is lucky.<p>But the forces of supply and demand will sort this market out in the future, to which the author seems ignorant. Name another profession that requires "Little or no education", and "no physical effort" (not to mention the ease of globalizing coding) that has sustained the kind of market pressure where agents are required to fend off recruiters, or kids right out of school can demand six figure salaries and four weeks of holidays right off the bat.<p>America (and the world) will churn out programmers until being a programmer is a marginal decision, equal among many occupations. It will lose its luster; it has already happened to lawyers. So planning on having a blase attitude towards deadlines and stress-free work in this field at 50 (assuming you're ~30 now) is a tad naive. I believe this will be an <i>extremely</i> competitive field in 20 years.

I'm one of those guys programming in my 50s. Technically my jobs involve project management and consulting as well but I still love programming the most.<p>Saying that programming "requires little or no education" is from the perspective of either a naturally smart person or the Dunning–Kruger effect. Like any profession, there are some self-motivated people who can do the job effectively without formal education. Yet it saves time to have everyone on the same page with knowledge of basic algorithms, terminology, and problem-solving methods.<p>If money is your motivator for programming in your 20s, the odds are that you will find some other way to make more money and not last until you're 50. At least I hope so.

"Programmers who can program at all - as in, print out a binary tree correctly"<p>Strikingly succinct and useful benchmark, just sort of thrown in there like it was jam on toast.<p>There are some tidbits of wisdom in this article, but overall it boils down to a life that has lost all meaning and passion and has succumbed to the lowest common denominator: money. True, maybe, but sad, really.

I'm a software developer (MS Comp. Sci.) in my late thirties. I've always had the impression that software development was really well paid. But lately many of my friends (doctors, lawyers, MBAs) has started to make way more than I can get as a regular employee. And for the doctors it's all part of their standard salaries. They don't need to demonstrate any particular high level of competence. And from here on their salary will increase until retirement, while I expect mine to flatten or decrease. I love programming and didn't choose it for the money, but my view on software as a high paying job has changed. Of course everything is relative.

I agree with many of the things written in the original post. But I definitely disagree with the notion that the barrier to entry in this profession is low and that any Joe Sixpack can start programming for a living because it's supposedly easy.<p>I can vividly remember my days in back in college where a lot of fellow students in my CS classes had substantial problems writing even the simplest of programs and understanding basic statements and data structures. A lot of them couldn't even write simple programs which would take user input, do something with it and give some output, let alone come up with more complicated solutions and architectures for real world problems.<p>This field is not for everyone and I believe that is often not obvious to many of us because we take our ability to turn mental constructs into code for granted. A lot of people just don't have the mental facilities to do it. I'm not saying this to sound elitist, but it's the way it is.

To the pedant brigade: ease up. It's "little to now education" compared to medicine or law, where you have to toil in years in a very rigid pipeline of exams, internships and certifications. There's plenty of <i>learning</i> in programming, but you can do with little <i>education</i>.

Best quote I've read/heard all month "...but passion burns out, whereas greed is sustainable." I identified with the author and it's one of the major reasons I didn't pursue other career paths even though I could have (Lawyer, Doctor etc.) Thanks for this article.

I think this is a bit cynical (and dangerous) but agree with the premise that currently the number of programming opportunities continues to exceed the number of programmers. However there are signs that this is changing.<p>I do know a programmer who became an IP attorney (doing well at it too) and a couple of programmers who have gone off to do entirely different things (one is a guide in Africa, another drives a tugboat around Puget Sound for fun and profit). I also know some who are not working at their first choice of job, rather they are working at jobs they would not have taken if they had a choice.<p>It is this last bit that suggests we are at the beginning of the end for the programming shortage.<p>NB: I think it is hilarious that the first comment is from a user named Bogdan but I suspect that is just me.

I've seen all kind of different programmers. The ones that are not in it for the money and the ones that hate their job but won't switch because it has a good pay. It reminded me of this animated movie about 'what motivates us' <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc</a> The essence: don't underpay and don't overpay.<p>More and more programmers are looking for good company cultures with a good (but not highest pay). Money will make your life easier but won't make you happy.

I know a programmer who became a lawyer (in Netherlands). It lifted his hourly rate 10x (50-&#62;500 EUR/hour), and while not all time is paid, and he isn't working full time having a lot of time to spare, he's getting like 2x than before.

Just a few comments on a well-written article that makes some good points:<p>&#62; No health or legal risks<p>On the contrary -- the health risk arises primarily because of the sedentary lifestyle. It's hard to imagine anything so hard on one's health and longevity prospects as sitting and typing all day.<p>As to legal risks, they're certainly on the upswing, as people who can't program try to steal the work of those who can, and as people try to take generic methods, known to all, and turn them into private property.<p>Apart from those quibbles, a nice article.

It's posts like these that get me as a programmer worried. Arrogance tends to lead to bad things and the world can change at a pace greater than one can imagine (a good way for me to understand how swiftly things change is to ask myself: Could I have foreseen x years ago what I am be doing today? for me, using the relatively low value of x=5 the answer is a definitive no. And I think that's a good thing).<p>Be humble if people are willing to pay you more money than others for what you do - it might change incredibly fast. The more generic assumption of the post is that people are willing to pay good money for skills that are relatively rare... well, make sure to keep your skill set up to date.

Also, in what other job can you build your own little slaves to do some of your work for you? You don't even have to tell anyone.

I am grateful that I am able to make a lot of money doing something that is fun for me anyways, programming computers. However, a fool and his gold are soon parted. There are some programs best left unwritten, for any amount of money. And some programs worth no money, yet most valuable.<p>The freedom from work as we know it, is the dream that technology is meant to bring... to <i>everyone</i>. When I am 50, I hope that how much money I am making will be largely irrelevant due to advances in technology and society.

&#62;"<i>No health (...) risks</i>"<p>I'd like to see some research to back up this claim, but I'm not aware of any studies into occupational health for programmers. Does anyone know of any?

If what's described is true:<p>a) Tons of money to be made b) Tons of unmet demand<p>Why the outsourcing market isn't growing as much as it should? There are plenty of places with more than capable programmers which are usually paid in peanuts not only when compared with SV, but when compared to people in the same country.<p>That smells like a niche waiting to be disrupted. He who solves the trust and quality perception and control issues, will become very rich.

One of the biggest reason there aren't that many 50-year-old programmers is that a lot of programmers move to other roles in the same company, like line manager, project manager, product manager or various sales roles.

If you're into programmer and not in it for the passion there is a high chance that you're a mediocre programmer.<p>But indeed that doesnt matter. Because the demand is high.<p>But for me, this is what drives me: working with an excellent team on a product/service that is heavily used and comes with technical challenges.<p>If managers, business and bad programmers interfere with this, i'd rather stop and get a decent job.<p>The money is not the main driver.

"Little or no required education" really? Sitting at the cashier requires little or no education, but doing programming requires much more education (either on your own or someone has to teach you). From my perspective a lot people I know aren't capable of programming just as they are unable to solve mathematical problems (and a lot of people can't even do basic math when buying at grocery store).<p>Not to mention that here where I work you are tested for your knowledge and problem solving skills - so although there is a high demand there are still very few that are hired.<p>BTW. About 15 years ago I heard that it's not a good choice to go and study computer science because there are a lot of others that do it and the market will be saturated. And we know how it is saturated right now (it isn't). There are more and more "places" where software wasn't needed before (e.g. cars, TVs) and now it is required - demand for programmers increases.

You dont necessarily need FORMAL education, but you have to learn alot to be a good programmer. Its alot about training, experience and talent...

Basic Economics states that with a low barrier to entry and large salary means it won't be for very long. Wish we would professionalise. In the UK now there are software dev jobs being advertised for minimum wage.

I've often times felt guilty that this is almost exactly the reason why I program. I like programming but I also like the salary and benefits. I can then use my 5-9 time to do all the other things I like: cooking, working-out, hiking.<p>That said, I recently founded a startup, where the work is more stressful and the pay is less and I'm hoping for it all to be worth it financially in a few years. This is often not the traditional "Why I founded a company" story you read about hear on HN, but I wonder how common (or misguided) it is.

One reason I'm not confident that the supply problem will be solved anytime soon:<p><a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/11/college-has-been-oversold.html" rel="nofollow">http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/11/col...</a><p>Given that college has been incredibly (over)promoted over the past 20 years and that CS jobs have become more lucrative if anything, the conclusion I drew from this is that there just aren't very many engineers on the margin.

Nice to hear such an optimistic viewpoint. I find some comfortable truths in this essay, but he kind of glosses over some major things.<p>The moving targets that are the latest fads in languages (every six years a new "generation" does the same old thing their way) and shifts in market demand certainly create an environment requiring constant learning. Unless you're in business for yourself and taking on more risk and stress, your earnings will top out in the low six-figures so you have to value daily comfort and health insurance over any grand ambition or ability to disappear for months at a time. Outsourcing and immigrants willing to work longer hours for less money are a constant macro threat to this comfort zone too.<p>To say that it requires almost no education isn't true. An engineering or computer science degree surely makes it easier to get a job. Whether that training makes a difference at work if you started coding at age 9 anyway is debatable but a degree gets you recognition as a professional and shows that you have deep cross-training in math and physics.<p>I do agree coding non-mission critical applications is pretty low stress and for the most part you have a chance at a decent quality of life.

I have a suspicion (albeit a light one), that programming in itself will become a commodity skill, like "good writing" (something you _have_ to know to score well on the SAT/GRE).<p>It would become a necessary skill that simply everyone in a wide variety of fields (doctors, accountants, etc) where programming is the slightest bit helpful would have.<p>In such an age and era, will programmers get paid anything close to what they get paid today?

<i>passion burns out, whereas greed is sustainable</i><p>This blog entry seems to have been written so that it can end up with this sentence and not read cynical.

Either the system is broken, or some people are just <i>gasp</i> not motivated as much by money. There are quite a few internships in programming (just check out glassdoor) that pay about as much as a tenure-track professor, and these days with all the shenanigans in academia I would be hesitant to make a judgement on which will provide better job security...<p>So the economy rewards someone building facebook or groupon more than someone with a PHD and multiple post-docs doing basic research, and while the developers for said companies do add a tremendous amount of value, which is reflected in their sallary -- IMO it is more likely that DARPA or a similar government body is more likely to develop the next step in innovation. Siri was originally a government project, that was then commercialized from CALO. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CALO" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CALO</a> Same goes for the internet.

Good post. I've been doing this for many years now though and I've been burnt out after maybe the first 4-5 on coding, but that is still what I do. It really is about the money though. Early on I had the idea that I would become an architect get all of the certifications (back when that meant something), work my way up management and have a house at the beach, at the lake, and in the mountains. Ha. Yeah, I should have known. Right now I'm hoping that telecommuting becomes the norm. I love working from home, but I don't think I could make what I'm making now as a contractor doing Rails development, which is now primarily what I do. As long as I continue to be employed, I guess that is the main thing. And I guess that is the point of the post.

This is a nice response to the other blog post. It is amazing how privileged your life gets when you can do black magic with code that most people don't even dream of ever being able to understand.<p>However, I disagree with this statement: "So I'm not planning to quit programming, not because it's such a great source of joy by itself, but because it looks so good compared to just about anything else."<p>Well, I wouldn't want to miss the high I get from being in the zone for four hours straight either. I wonder if the author implies that programming is no longer fun to him or if its just not the deciding factor. To me, the fun in coding is really a big part of my overall happiness and so contributes a large part of the decision to stay in the field.

I did not even get past the first 100 lines before I want to give this blog post a score off the charts. We need more people programming, lots more, with the honesty and humility of the author. Thank you for saying what you said.<p>yosefk.com +10000

Perhaps I can add my experience in this. I was very good at programming in college. I was one of those guys that left the labs under the hatefull gaze of the entire lab section having finished his assignment early. And boy I loved it too. I was so happy having finished a large programming project or a large engineering design assignment. After getting an interesting assignment I would literally skip on the way back home daydreaming about how I will write it. I was not at the best university, mostly because I was an immigrant so I was not able to get good grades/sat scores, but it was a very decent state school.<p>But while in college I saw that most powerful people in america were lawyers of some kind. These were the days of the Clintons, btw. Then I got into my stupid head that perhaps I should go to law school. You know in order to join the power elite and make a difference and all that.<p>By that time my english was very good, and being naturally intelligent (I will not bore you with false modesty), I got into some of the very best law schools in America. I chose one and did very well there and got jobs at some very prestigous top law firms. Basically, for a while I had the promise of a career that most lawyers would dream of.<p>But now this is all in shambles and I am thinking of getting back into engineering or something more closely related to technology.<p>Oscar Wilde said something very wise (paraphrasing): "I used to have the life of my dreams and I was happy; now I have the life of everybody else's dreams and it is incredibly tiresome"<p>So my advice is if you are one of those natural programmers by all means do it, and do not ever think about what other people say about "what would you be doing when you are 50." Yosef (the author of this article) is one of those people, and to him the answer is very simple and very happy: "programming".<p>You see this question of "can you see yourself as a programmer when you are 50" does not have much to do with ageism or the labor market but about people's inner feelings and desires. Some people are horrified to see themselves as programmers when they are 50, not because of the market but because they secretly loathe it. And to see themselves doing it when they are 50 seems like a life sentence. For others, it is the most natural thing in the world.<p>I remember when I was a lawyer I once had an especially good stretch. Some of our top clients complimented my work. This is a big deal because those clients spent crazy money on fees and it is very rare for anyone to complement a lawyer's work. I thought to myself "wow keep going and you will be a partner in no time". Then I thought about life as a lawyer, doing the same thing over and over again, for the rest of my life and it was the most depressing thing ever. It was horrifying and the thought about multi-million dollar salaries did not help (although now in my much more perilous situation those salaries sure seem nice). I got into a serious depression and that badly affected my work thereafter.<p>So my advice is, if you are good at programming, if you are one of those few for whom this stuff just clicks, go for it and do not listen what anyone says about markets, or ageism etc. Note that those that are really good at programming are very few. Even among programmers, I would say that those to whom programming is annoying and a little scary greatly outnumber the ones that have real talent for it.<p>So people will generally give you many reasons to move away from it, but those are their reasons, not yours. If you are part of this select group just count your blessings. And here are some of these blessings:<p>1. You know how rare it is to have a passion and talent for something, and at the same time have that something be valuable and useful. Think of all the brilliant and passionate people that are into disciplines where only a few thousand people in the world get a decent income. Think of all dancers, screenwrights, directors, painters, poets, chess players, etc.<p>2. You have a wonderful differentiator of skill and ability: things either work or not. When I was a lawyer I had to compete with so many hacks. When I would stay up nights writing complex documents, trying to phrase every single word just the right way, when I would stress out for hours about a particular phrasing or argument, they would slap something together quickly and with no second thought. And their work would look like mine to the client. The consequences of bad legal work are uncertain and tend to be much delayed.<p>3. Your craft requires very little investment. Again, you have no idea how lucky that is. Even startups that require capital, get it mostly for salaries. There is no expensive equipment to purchase, etc. Marx thought so much about how to connect workers to their means of production, and in the end came up with a theory that turned out into a complete disaster and caused untold tradegy. If he only knew that some day there would be a sub $500 means of production that can create wealth worth millions he would not go into silly plans about dictatorship of the proletariat.<p>There is more but I have rambled enough. Heed my advice. If you are one of the lucky ones, ignore what the less lucky ones are saying and do not squander your good fortune.

Why are all these posts talking about 50?<p>Retirement in Canada just got pushed to 67, and I think most people expect it will go out to 69 before we actually get to retire (I'm 30 now).<p>All these titles should say "<i>Do you really want to be doing this at 66</i>"

You don't get what you deserve, you get what you negotiate. Being good at the job or the market demand or the right size of a company are small variables against your ability to negotiate the rate you want.

If this fellow truly has no passion for his craft, I hope he can find the energy to constantly update his skills when he's 50.<p>I started in FORTRAN in 1968. Today I'm working in Java and MongoDB and studying Scala and Go.

Pretty much.<p>There's also tremendous scope for working from home, or from wherever you want. I can imagine it getting to the stage where job ads for developers will advertise perks like 'work from the beach!'<p>I'm not a full-time developer (though my work involves programming), but I know what I want to be doing in my 30s, 40s... Not just because I like it but because it gives you so much freedom in terms of lifestyle.

Is anyone concerned that over the next 10+ years after many people realize how lucrative the work is that supply will catch up with demand?

<i>&#62; Give me a profession remotely close to programming in the following ways: Little or no required education...</i><p><i>&#62; Programming is money for nothing.</i><p>This is not called programming. It's called monkey job. Programming requires education (i.e. being a knowledgeable professional in computing, software engineering and so on) and it's not money for nothing by any means.

Passion only burns out if you consistently fail to pace yourself, or if it wasn't really innate passion in the first place.

&#62; I haven't met programmers who became lawyers.<p>For what it's worth, I'm a programmer in the middle of law school.

If money is your primary motivation for any long term choices, you are doing something wrong.

Honestly, I don't want to read articles about "doing x when you're 50" when I'm 50.

You won't have to worry about that. They'll be hiring 23 year old Stanford kids who don't have a family and who can pull all nighters. They won't be hiring you.

Computer programming jobs in the USA have been in decline since 1990.<p>Stats from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (USA):<p><a href="http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/c...</a><p>2010 Median Pay $71,380 per year $34.32 per hour<p>Number of Jobs, 2010 363,100<p>Job Outlook, 2010-20 12% (About as fast as average)<p>Especially worth a look:<p><a href="http://americawhatwentwrong.org/story/programming-jobs-fall/" rel="nofollow">http://americawhatwentwrong.org/story/programming-jobs-fall/</a><p>"Over and over, Americans are told that education is the key to their job future. The more education you have, the better your shot at getting a job that pays middle-income wages to take care of your family. If we as a nation are better educated, the theory goes, we’ll be able to compete more effectively in the global economy, which in turn will generate more good jobs for everyone.<p>But some major flaws in this theory are playing out today in a field that was once thought to have the brightest future — information technology...<p>...In its 1990 Occupational Outlook Handbook, the U.S. Department of Labor was especially bullish: “The need for programmers will increase as businesses, government, schools and scientific organizations seek new applications for computers and improvements to the software already in use [and] further automation . . . will drive the growth of programmer employment.” The report predicted that the greatest demand would be for programmers with four years of college who would earn above-average salaries.<p>In 2000, the Labor Department predicted America would have 839,000 computer programming jobs by 2008. The department warned of competition from "programming businesses overseas where much routine work can be outsourced at a lower cost," but was nonetheless confident that "jobs for both systems and applications programmers should be plentiful." Things didn't quite work out that way. The number of programming jobs has fallen steadily, in part because of outsourcing.<p>When Labor made these projections in 1990, there were 565,000 computer programmers. With computer usage expanding, the department predicted that “employment of programmers is expected to grow much faster than the average for all occupations through the year 2005 . . .”<p>It didn’t. Employment fluctuated in the years following the report, then settled into a slow downward pattern after 2000. By 2002, the number of programmers had slipped to 499,000. That was down 12 percent–not up–from 1990. Nonetheless, the Labor Department was still optimistic that the field would create jobs–not at the robust rate the agency had predicted, but at least at the same rate as the economy as a whole.<p>Wrong again. By 2006, with the actual number of programming jobs continuing to decline, even that illusion couldn’t be maintained. With the number of jobs falling to 435,000, or 130,000 fewer than in 1990, Labor finally acknowledged that jobs in computer programming were “expected to decline slowly.” "