I agree with the fact that we are in a "D-process", but I'm skeptical about the "long" part. Something new is happening with the widespread availability of information through multiple channels, and I think because of this our economic cycles are "compressed".<p>My prediction is that the rate at which businesses change/modify/adapt (especially in the financial sector) will be readily reflected in the information that is spread through multiple channels, resulting in a compression of the time frames of the current "D-process".
Very interesting interview but I was confused about his predictions for gold and inflation.<p>He makes the point that deflation is a serious concern so the Fed will devalue and gold will be a great investment.
But then he says that the devaluation will barely produce a single digit rate of inflation and stocks will be a great buy.<p>So which is it, low inflation and cheap stocks, or gold?<p>Gold doesn't pay dividends so the only way you make a profit is by it going up, or you simply preserve your wealth when there's inflation.<p>But why would you hide in gold with low single digit inflation?
There's a good article in the FT today on a similar theme: how this recession is/isn't like past recessions, particularly the Japanese "lost decade".<p><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/774c0920-fd1d-11dd-a103-000077b07658.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/774c0920-fd1d-11dd-a103-000077b076...</a>
finally someone is pointing to one of the real fundamental issues
<a href="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-DC115_BATOPC_NS_20090206234459.gif" rel="nofollow">http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-DC115_BATOPC_NS_...</a><p>when you have huge negative savings for many many years that is unsustainable. we are now correcting.
It seems like everyone's a prophet these days. I understand why, I think -- we all hate uncertainty. But no one knows the future; this is all too chaotic to predict. Let's hope that fact actually works to our advantage.