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Taleb: The future will not be cool

133 pointsby mck-over 12 years ago

35 comments

astineover 12 years ago
I was going to say something to the effect of "Who is this guy and why do we care what he thinks? He seems like an idiot." But it turns out that he's actually a respected thinker and has published some respected books so maybe I'm not allowed to say that.<p>However, I still think this particular essay is insulting drivel. Taleb uses a lot of 10 dollar words to mast his 10 cent thoughts. He wears his vocabulary and enculturation on his sleeve like a badge so that he can pour scorn on <i>neophiles</i> and other people he doesn't like. Now, this may merely be the predjudice of an "autistic" technophile, but I prefer reasoned arguments to intellectual muscle flexing.<p>He makes a few good points. As the old saying goes: "The more things change the more they stay the same." Some things about society will possibly never change. But his actual argument is so vapid: We still use glasses to hold liquids that we intend to drink? Just like the Mesopotamians? No kidding. But chances are that glass he was drinking out of was manufactured in China hundreds of miles away with techniques wholly unavailable to Mesopotamia and shipped across a distance, inconcievable to a Mesopotamian, and at a price, proportionally less that the price of the rudimentary earthenware mug that a Mesopotamian would use.<p>Taleb accuses technophiles of not studying history, but I <i>have</i> studied history, and the world <i>has</i> changed, quite a bit.
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ChuckMcMover 12 years ago
I always find these sorts of essays curious, here is a guy who is eating lamb and noting that the fork is an old invention. Except that the lamb he is eating is probably from New Zealand, a country that is mesopotamian ancestors couldn't even imagine existed, much less imagine trading with. He might as well remark that his sperm is using the same sort of gamete structure that was fashionable in the neolithic period. <i>That isn't the point.</i><p>The future is going to be new, and different, and it is hard to predict. Your phone (for some definition of phone) can give you answer to nearly any fact based question you can imagine. Right now, in under 500 mSec. The future doesn't look different when its entered into gradually, it looks hugely different when it is punctuated.<p>So if Taleb really wanted to 'check' on his futurist mantra, he should pick a number, 10 years, 25 years, 50 years. And then 'spend a day' in that time by removing everything in his possessions, environment, and activities that were not created or possible at that previous time.<p>I would predict that its a matter of opinion as to whether the future is or is not 'cool', most people would agree that the past <i>sucks</i>. :-)
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russellover 12 years ago
Taleb of Black Swans fame says that predictions of future technology dont pan out, flying cars for example. He says that the predictable new technology is a replacement of older less capable or less adapted technology. I suppose your could have predicted cell phones, having see analog wireless phones.<p>What he doesnt say in this book excerpt is that truly disruptive technology is usually around in the labs or experimental form 15 or so years before its disruptive phase. Could you have predicted today's internet from the early ARPANET? I was there and I didnt. Or the iPad from the integrated circuit? Good grief, Ted Nelson demoed Xanadu of a group of us in the 1980's and I didnt see the social implications of the Web.
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lolcraftover 12 years ago
This is, surprisingly, a warning for entrepreneurs worldwide. You should read it.<p>"After I left finance, I started attending some of the fashionable conferences attended by he new class of technology intellectuals. I was initially exhilarated to see them wearing no ties, as I used to live among tie-wearing abhorred bankers."<p>"But these conferences felt depressing. It took a while for me to realize the reason: a profound lack of elegance."<p>Take its message as a humbling lesson: "Technology is at its best when it is invisible."
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tubeliteover 12 years ago
Taleb is a Soup Nazi. He (volubly) suffers for his soup. He treats customers with disdain. And yet people line up for the soup, because it's pretty good, actually.<p>I find Taleb's opinionated eccentricity very useful, especially when it consists of a mixture of ideas, some of which you totally agree with and some which you totally disagree. Keeps you alert and thinking, instead of blindly swallowing or blindly rejecting everything depending on religious preferences (e.g. iOS vs Android)<p>Antifragility is perhaps the most important perception-refactoring concept since the selfish gene, and the book deserves to be read purely for that reason.<p>The book is pretty laudatory of engineers and the tinkering mentality, crediting them for most of the inventions of the past age, rather than top-down science.<p>Erudition is great. But it is far easier for the engineer to become erudite than for a liberal arts major to become an engineer.<p>Where Taleb is wrong is that (good) science fiction is not about predicting the future. It is really speculative economics fiction - how would a mix of this kind of intelligent agents and this kind of resource environment work out? The science, futurism and the aliens are merely literary tools to help you get out of a human/today-centric point of view. They are thought experiments which can be sold to the public (at least, the engineering public).<p>And God, I hate longhand as the primary mode of input. Connecting the iPad to ancient tablets is the kind of wankery one gets from the erudite, I guess :)<p>(I'm picking very small nits here; "Antifragile" is overall very thought provoking. Highly recommended.)
lmg643over 12 years ago
I used to be impressed by Taleb (when I was younger and more clueless) but having read two of his books and many articles I find the negativity tiresome and petulant, and his finance theories questionable.<p>Eric Falkenstein:<p>"Another key to understanding Taleb is that he has a French post-modern tendency to write to impress rather than explain. He provides hundreds of loosely related anecdotes, reminding me of the Talmud quote that 'when a debater’s point is not impressive, he brings forth many arguments.' I actually agree with a lot of Taleb, such as the intractability of risk because it is endogenous, and I think he's vaguely libertarian, but he says so many inconsistent things that doesn't mean much (when he's right it's probably a good example of the Gettier problem)."<p>Gettier problem = whether being right by accident still counts as being right.<p><a href="http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/taleb-mishandles-fragility.html" rel="nofollow">http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/taleb-mishandles-frag...</a>
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rizzom5000over 12 years ago
I enjoyed this excerpt, but I was surprised that he used Orwell as one of his examples of someone whose imagination failed to predict the future.<p>As much as Taleb swoons over literary culture in this excerpt, and as much of cultural force as Orwell was as a writer; I'm surprised that that Taleb doesn't view Orwell's imagination as a remarkably accurate, in a literary, if not literal, sense, prognosticator.<p>After all, Orwell's imagination predicted the surveillance society, death of individual privacy, the use of propaganda for social engineering among other things. I may be misinterpreting Taleb's words, "The problem is that almost everything that was imagined never took place, except for a few over-exploited anecdotes...", because it strikes me that he would miss the obvious current reality of Orwell's 'literary predictions' which mostly are very much based on technological achievements such as ubiquitous networks, cheap cameras, cheap and ubiquitous data storage, and so on.
JVIDELover 12 years ago
I would like to point out that the Space Age futurism the author rants so much about wasn't made by the, and I quote, "techno-autistic" guys.<p>Most of the futuristic crap from 50 and 60 years ago was the product of some uninformed scifi authors who mixed fantasy with technology, marketers creating products of the future to create more brand-awareness (with the ironic consequence that some of those companies disappeared decades ago) and many charlatans who simply had no idea what they were talking about.<p>For example, food pills wasn't about a rosy cool future, the whole idea started as a theoretical last-ditch effort to curve a future global famine of catastrophic proportions caused by the at the time unprecedented increase in population. Fortunately other "techno-autistics" were able to find a way to increase crop yields (Green Revolution) which is why we still have real food instead of something closer to dry dogfood pellets.
georgeorwellover 12 years ago
I'd like to see a news aggregator where all of the submissions were as well-written and thoughtful as this one. It doesn't matter whether his perspective is wrong or right, the fact is that the writing here simply makes reading it a pleasure. I'd say that 1% or less of articles have this quality.
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smalterover 12 years ago
Venkat Rao at Ribbon Farm has a great post on this topic: "Welcome to the Future Nauseous" (<a href="http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2012/05/09/welcome-to-the-future-nauseous/" rel="nofollow">http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2012/05/09/welcome-to-the-future-n...</a>).
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sabjover 12 years ago
A fun article whose real value will likely be missed by many here who will be rushing, misguided, to defend their ideas of 'technology' or 'progress' from attack.<p>The points that Taleb is making here are best discussed, not by considering technology as artifact alone, but technology for what it really is - a set of artifacts, systems, processes, and artifices that take place in a social milieu and as a two-way relationship with society and civilization. To think otherwise is naive folly, from my perspective. (Please see: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_construction_of_technology" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_construction_of_technolo...</a> for a primer on this, it's fun reading if you're unfamiliar).<p>Technophiles (myself included!) will often project things out because they fail to understand that technology does NOT just show up and leave an imprint on the world, deus ex machina style. Instead the world shapes technology back. You can see this for any kind of technology, from the bicycle (Bijker's famous example, shown in the wikipedia article) to the Internet, which has its present design because of the real fears / threats / motivations that abounded during its establishment.<p>It's the (mostly) impossible nature of this dis-entanglement that throws people off track. In some world of scientist-kings of technocratic technophile dictatorships, yes, we'd have moon bases by now. But that's not how it works, and as a result people - messy, annoying humanity - get in the way. For better or, for often, worse.<p>The future WILL be cool - I'm still an optimist. But it will be cool in different ways, and maybe for different reasons, than many here on HN might imagine.<p>Since this thread is already a bit long let me instead just close with a great quote that I reference often. Relevant here.<p><i>The plain message physical science has for the world at large is this, that were our political and social and moral devices only as well contrived to their ends as a linotype machine, an antiseptic operating plant, or an electric tram-car, there need now at the present moment be no appreciate toil in the world, and only the smallest fraction of the pain, the fear, and the anxiety that now makes human life so doubtful in its value. There is more than enough for everyone alive. Science stands, a too competent servant, behind her wrangling underbred masters, holding out resources, devices, and remedies they are too stupid to use. </i> – H.G. Wells, A Modern Utopia (1904)
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kenjacksonover 12 years ago
Taleb is wrong. There's a much better analysis on why futurists predict the future wrong by an author who I forget. This authors central thesis is that technology moves in spurts along any given dimension. For example building were getting taller and taller. Every year a new "talltest building" was built. People began imagining buildings to the moon or at least out of the atmosphere. This eventually stopped. Similarly, planes got faster and faster. In the midst of the increase in plane speeds not many would have thought that we'd have the amount of commercial flights at the current "slow" speeds we have.<p>But people tend to miss a lot of other things. Most futurists wouldn't have predicted that computers 1000x more powerful than ENIAC would fit in our pocket. I recall one prediction about a computer the size of ENIAC might fit in a small room. Notice the low resolution displays in most old sci-fi movies. Or how ubiquitous wireless communication would be. Many sci-fi movies with tethered phones, or data transfer with USB-key like gadgets.<p>It's not that things are subtractive (that's just wishful luddite-like thinking). It's just that things aren't necessarily additive where we think they may be. It may be that in 50 years the web is a lot like how it is today, but nutrition technology has drastically changed so that nutrituous food is tasty and cheap. Or we discover technology to communicate with animals much more effectively.<p>Technology keeps moving forward. And I think his comment about literary culture reveals his bias.
breckinlogginsover 12 years ago
I believe that the future will look more like the past. One thing I'm almost certain we'll see less and less of is <i>gadgets</i>. Smartphones, computers, things like that will all go inside your head (if you're willing, and most everyone will be). Soon we will become tired of living in houses with blank walls upon which are projected whatever we want and, because we can do so, will revert back to more ancient styles of architecture and furnishings (with a couple of blank walls or two).<p>Your stove may look like a wood burning stove, and your fridge may look like a 50's model. Why? Because when almost EVERYTHING is 3D printed to your specifications, people are free to make things that function in a modern way but look like what <i>they</i> want them to look, rather than how the manufacturer's marketing department deems they should look.<p>I think transport will be dominated by self-driving vehicles, but again: think of individual styles. I predict quite a few autonomous "horseless coaches" driving around our cities.<p>Speaking of cities...<p>My hope is that high speed network access will be everywhere, and population densities will equalize as more and more people prefer to live a rural life even while they do cutting edge professional or academic work. There will still be slums and there will still be poor people, but I think that the majority of people who live in cities will do so because they really <i>want</i> to.<p>Further out, I can see even things like traditional healthcare completely disappear. Sure, we may always have emergency trauma centers and doctors, but it's not to hard to fathom a time where a colony of self-replicating bio-robots and ongoing genetic engineering work 24 hours a day inside your body to keep it healthy and let you know of any real trouble before it becomes serious.<p>This is not to say that all these predictions will come true, only that the disappearance of electronic gadgets into the mind and into fabrics, paint, and the air seems inevitable, as does the radical differentiation of physical <i>things</i> like furniture, houses, and vehicles that will certainly come from the 3D printing/replication revolution (if that occurs).
venusover 12 years ago
I want to be contrarian here and say I actually liked this article, whose main thrust I might summarise thusly:<p><i>The future will not be as cool as technologists imagine because in the contest of being what it could be, and being what its current inhabits want it to be (especially those in power), the latter wins</i><p>It's nothing profound, but it's worth hearing again, and the arguments here underline that. Technology exists to serve humans, and humans haven't changed for a very long time, for better or worse. Any prediction that fails to take this into account will fail. It's an old lesson, but it seems we need to hear these old lessons again, and again, and again.
marquisover 12 years ago
"It is remarkable that the tools that seem to currently dominate the world, such as the Internet, or more mundane matters such as the wheel on the suitcase of Book IV, were completely missing from these forecasts."<p>This is completely wrong. I can think of at least 2 victorian examples imagining the internet: 1, a series of drawings where video telecommunications is imagined, and the other a story I cannot find, written over 100 years ago I believe, about a son and mother communicating from their pods where all the worlds knowledge is accessible, and the son chooses to go "offline".
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josephlordover 12 years ago
He doesn't mention the smartphone, a pocket computer connected to the Internet that may settle an argument at his dinner without recourse to the library the next day. It may also enable finding out where the friends who are running late are and guide him to the address if it isn't familiar.<p>The smartphone was probably predictable from the early 2000's at the very least.<p>Having said that I'm not that I currently see any similar major leaps coming in the next decade. More accurate and indoor location data could bring useful (and in some ways almost invisible) functionality to the smartphone.
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msrpotusover 12 years ago
Interesting but very over the top. An iPad might be called a tablet but it's very different than what Babylonians used (except in shape and sometimes purpose), contrary to Taleb's assertion.
jvalover 12 years ago
I can agree with a lot of the criticisms in these comments, because the future will definitely be cool, and Taleb has selectively forgotten about a lot of the great technological advancements and focussed on things that haven't advanced.<p>That said, Taleb makes a good point when he is talking about the tendency for 'futurists' to get it all wrong. He is touching on one of the major problems of design which is that bad design is always additive, and constantly bolts on extra useless features in order to strive for something 'newer', whereas good design demands subtraction.<p>The iPhone was released in an era where most nerds still got excited about what Intel was planning to release next year, and yet the most influential computer of the decade didn't even have an Intel processor. By subtracting away the unnecessary, Jobs delivered something that was far greater than the sum of its parts. Most notably, the iOS touch interface was a huge innovation from a human-computer interaction perspective, yet viewed from another perspective all it did was bring us back to an interface that had been used for centuries (I think Taleb can realise the difference between a Phoenician tablet and an iPad, he is referring to the interface).<p>I think ultimately Taleb is touching on something that Steve Jobs would often repeat, which is that the best objects exist at an intersection of the arts and the sciences. Human nature does not fundamentally change as the years pass, and this is ultimately the limiting factor on successful technologies, and the driving force behind the process of disruptive innovation which continues to favour the less technologically advanced yet more customer-centric (or human-centric) technologies. This is something that is often forgotten in the technology world where it took a completely non-technical liberal arts drop-out in the form of Jobs to help technologists realise that computers ultimately have to be made for real people.<p>That said, Taleb is writing outside his domain and therefore this piece could have been much better written.
allenwleeover 12 years ago
I'd really like to know if people on HN "share an absence of literary culture" as Taleb suggests. Can you please respond if you read literature other than science fiction?
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egypturnashover 12 years ago
I think he's missing an important thing about SF and futurism. The point of them is not to predict. The point is to say "What if...?" and proceed from there.<p>Every now and then someone nails something. And every now and then someone building a device is inspired by something they read or saw; the form of the once-ubiquitous flip cellphone came from Star Trek's tricorders.<p>Taleb's theoretical dinner might be woven through with the Internet: did he and his friends decide to have this dinner by making appointments on the phone? Or did they use email? Or Facebook, or even just kinda hooked up via Twitter when one of them tweeted "hey who wants to go to The Grinning Wok with me tonight #omnomnomsogood".<p>And maybe that choice of restaurant came in part from reviews online? The Internet is no longer cool, this is true. This is because we're used to it. Hell, the tablet I'm typing this on was cool for like a month after I got it; now it's normal. Maybe a little annoying because the onscreen keyboard sucks and the autocorrect is aggressive and occasionally wrong.<p>The real parts of the future go from "cool" to "normal" very quickly. Impractical stuff stays "cool" in imagination forever.
zerostar07over 12 years ago
It's true that our basic needs haven't changed much. We 've become a little more brainy but our basic needs are served by relatively little technology. That's because humans haven't evolved visibly since ancient times. Our way of life will truly change once we start altering ourselves in substantial ways. The future will be very cool in a world where people can grow wings at will.
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zbover 12 years ago
I have long thought that the highest purpose of engineering is to reduce entropy. Although he doesn't express it in those terms, I think Taleb is advocating something similar here. It's not anti-technology in the way that a lot of comments here seem to be interpreting it, but it probably is incompatible with the sort of techno-utopianism that is in vogue at the moment.
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001skyover 12 years ago
<i>Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder [Hardcover] Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author)</i><p>-- You Save: $13.01 (43%)<p>I thought the Amazon-affiliate link was a bit Ironic.
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JulianMorrisonover 12 years ago
A simple way to predict the future is to step back into the past. 5 years ago? Aside from the whole tablet/smartphone revolution, not much. 10 years? Much faster computers, web 2.0, Facebook, Gmail, the whole social media thing. 20 years? The entirety of the modern web. MMO games. Global warming. Cloning. Cell phones.<p>Basically technical progress moves quite fast in the medium term but slower than you'd expect in the short term, except with surprises. (Nobody saw tablets coming. A move <i>away</i> from the web, to native apps? In this day and age?)
bozhoover 12 years ago
Arthur Clarke is one of the futurists that has imagined things right: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxYgdX2PxyQ" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxYgdX2PxyQ</a>
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Vivtekover 12 years ago
Y'know, this is a cute article, but as facilely as he refuses to accept that the present is not as weird as people thought - I'm wearing a flannel button-down right now as I type this in 2012 - the fact remains that I had a nice face-to-face chat with my dad yesterday, even though he's still on the farm in Indiana and I live in Budapest this year.
akaruover 12 years ago
'I will be using silverware, a Mesopotamian technology, which qualifies as a “killer application” given what it allows me to do to the leg of lamb, such as tear it apart while sparing my fingers from burns.'<p>Lost me there. Doesn't even make sense. At a time when people were still hungrily eating meat fresh from the coals, silverware was the least of their worries.
xiaomaover 12 years ago
Sadly, Taleb failed to address the predictions of one of the biggest "neophiles" of them all-- Kurzweil<p><a href="http://www.techi.com/2011/01/ray-kurzweils-tech-predictions-have-been-eerily-accurate/" rel="nofollow">http://www.techi.com/2011/01/ray-kurzweils-tech-predictions-...</a>
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Millenniumover 12 years ago
The future will be plenty cool. What it won't be is what the cool people (or, indeed, anyone at all) thinks it will be. It will be, as it has always been, the cool future that nobody thought of.
JDSDover 12 years ago
I can't believe I just read that entire thing... I feel as though the trajectory of technological advancement and "Taleb's" personal vision of the future are two seperate things and he is unable to acknowledge that fact. He is let down because reality isn't living up to his idea of what he thinks reality should be... There are far too many points to refute..<p>Shoes look no different than they did 3500 years ago because they serve a purpose.<p>Once a technology serves a purpose, there is no need to improve that purpose, unless said technology is to be used in another setting which requires change or improvement... Hence sandals, flip-flops, sneakers, skateboarding shoes, high heels, rollerblades, iceskates, snowshoes. I think author touched on this, kind of... You get my point...<p>Chairs are the same as they were because panda's aren't sitting in chairs. People are sitting in chairs, and people haven't physically changed since the inception of chairs. So a device that humans use for sitting is not likely to change... But wait, what about lounging chairs, or baby chairs, or high chairs, or stools? I'm sure if a fish needed a chair, it would look like a bed...<p>Technology is the instantiation of idea's into physicality. This is done for any number of reasons, most of which to solve some type of rudimentary problem. Some become extrusions of ourselves. Human beings are limited in MANY ways, but we are able to identify the limitations and problem solve through technological means.<p>For example, an iPhone is an extreme technological extrusion, not just a device. Think about a text message. Bear with me here...<p>A thought you have makes it's way from being a mere THOUGHT, to then being processed by LANGUAGE, which is processed to WRITTEN LANGUAGE, which is expressed through typing on a KEYBOARD, on a TOUCH SCREEN DISPLAY, on a WIRELESS MOBILE DEVICE, and then SENT THROUGH THE AIR to someone else's WIRELESS MOBILE DEVICE, to be READ, PROCESSED, and your thought implanted in that persons mind.<p>No words were used here. Just transference of thoughts through technological means.<p>Look at a car... Metal exoskeleton with wheels that can change it's rate of speed at will. Another technological extrusion of yourself. Without you driving, the car doesn't do shit.<p>Try explaining that to the shoe person 3500 years ago, or your fork friend, or someone even a mere 150 years ago... "Yeah man, instead of walking in 3500 years you'll get into a 2500lb metal box with rubber wrapped wheels filled with air that burns a a flammable liquid in another metal box of moving parts and listens to commands your right foot gives it!"<p>The internet has allowed people to have access to a network of information no other period in known history has ever had. The library of Alexandria MAY have contained similar amounts of knowledge, but it was in a centralized location that required your physical presence. The internet itself isn't changing the technological landscape, but the access to information the internet provides is. The rate at which thoughts/ideas are physically instantiated is increasing rapidly, as more tools are created by more people having more access to other tools, etc...<p>In short, what I gathered from this piece is that people should give up looking forward, and be happy right where they are, because our prediction skills suck and change is scary and doesn't always have the best outcome...<p>I'm sure glad pre-bigbang conditions didn't feel the same way. Or the primordial soup. Or Einstein. Or Edwin Hubble. Or Carl Sagan. Or Nikola Tesla. Or anyone who's ever had an idea and executed it for that matter.<p>===============================<p>TL;DR Technologies are idea's that solve problems. The future is unpredictable. Problems of an unpredictable future are also unpredictable. Hence, why people are shit predictors of the future technological climate. Doesn't mean we shouldn't try.
marzeover 12 years ago
Reminds me a lot of a 120 year ago prediction that all the good stuff had been invented/discovered. So wrong...
TeMPOraLover 12 years ago
Obligatory xkcd: <a href="http://xkcd.com/728/" rel="nofollow">http://xkcd.com/728/</a>
corporalagumboover 12 years ago
This post is so poorly argued and sloppy it is unbelievable. Intellectual trash.
ddwover 12 years ago
He picked the perfect example of his point.
michaelochurchover 12 years ago
First of all, I disagree. The future <i>will</i> be cool, at least in the long term. What it won't be is <i>weird</i>, in the sense of people wearing spacesuits in their living rooms. The bizarre visions people have traditionally had of the future (and which, demonstrably, haven't come true) seemed to focus largely on superficial stuff (clothing fashions, which are highly unpredictable but have a long-term mean-reversion) and to exaggerate. That doesn't mean that the world hasn't changed, and won't change, in profound ways.<p>Yes, the pleasures of life (wine, music, books, sex, spiritual experience) don't change all that much and therefore we use a lot of old technologies in daily life, so it can appear like there's nothing new... but there will be more people able to afford them, and they will be much less impeded by the stupid shit that clogged up peoples' lives in pre-technological times. Just to continue Taleb's example: in the 21st century, a lot of people get to drink wine of (by historical standards) exceedingly high quality. Three millennia ago, wine existed but the vast majority of people never got to drink any.<p><i>Many of the modern applications that have managed to survive today came to disrupt the deleterious effect of the philistinism of modernity, particularly the 20th century: the large multinational bureaucratic corporation with “empty suits” at the top; the isolated family (nuclear) in a one-way relationship with the television set, even more isolated thanks to car-designed suburban society [...]</i><p>I'm going to stop there with the quote. His point is valid, but I think there's something missed when people rip on suburbia. Yes, it's outmoded and wasteful and somewhat ugly, but the Levittowns were a lot better than the "company towns" of early-industrial hell, and those were a lot better than being a serf on a medieval enclosure, in a time when it wasn't uncommon for a peasant to have his head cut off by a knight (knights were more like warlords than the noble paladins of romance). People tend to compare the experiences of average people now against those of an elite in the past and conclude that things were better, but that's not fair. The 1800-era analogue of a bored suburbanite of 50th-percentile social status (only one car!) was not an English baron, but someone who started work at seven in the coal mines.<p>People rip on suburbia now because it's outmoded, but it wasn't always this way. Urban freeways are called "parkways" because the vision of Robert Moses (in hindsight we say, "That fucker!", but he was very respected in his time) was for them to be park-like roads for an automotive elite. In the 1920s, suburbia was very much <i>in</i>. The suburban lifestyle, with lots of driving, was designed for the rich and handed down, over a couple of decades, to the working classes in a watered-down form. The result now, almost a century later, is that "suburbia" is no longer cool because the low-quality suburbs of the poor have killed the image of the concept.<p>Oddly enough, has anyone ever noticed how rich people suburbs aren't called that? The Hamptons isn't "suburbia". The Woodbury towns out there are "charming little towns" rather than suburbs, because the rich people who live there have enough time to make zoning rules that keep a quaint little street or two alive. These people aren't morally superior for having houses in high-price towns that still have walkable main streets as opposed to "suburbs". They're just richer.<p>One thing I find interesting is that Ted Kaczynski (Unabomber) wrote an essay about technology and alienation, while most of his complaints were of the industrial-era society, not the <i>technological</i> society we evolved into. He was miserable because, in spite of his extreme intelligence and adept writing, he had no real influence in a world run by corrupt corporate institutions. So he went out and killed people in order to effectively force the New York Times to publish his rant. If he had waited 15 years and not killed people, he would have had the public access and attention he craved. He might have trolled a bit, but no one would have died. Technology was just about to solve many of the problems that had him so upset-- that he blamed on industrial society.<p>My view of technology and progress is that it's nearly monotonic in "goodness", but that the old humanity we're now trying to distance ourselves from is quite tenacious and willing to use technology toward pre-technological purposes, and so the long-term convergence toward democracy that we'd like to see doesn't come nearly as fast as we'd like. For example, one might like to believe that, in an electronic world, old-style industrial pressures like taking orders from managers, showing up in an uninspiring white-box office during certain hours, and writing TPS reports would vanish... but human nature is a certain way and power likes to maintain position, so the transition is actually taking decades rather than the hours that it "should". The result of this is that the technological push toward a better world appears to collapse into an unsatisfying half measure and people end up having to use technology in uninspiring ways (e.g. getting to write code, but still having to take orders from non-technical executives or "product managers"). That's not technology's fault. That's an artifact of humans being slow to improve themselves.
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