I think we're about to be in for a whole new console wars, except this time, instead of pushing more bits, it'll be a battle between ecosystems. It won't be a console war, but an ecosystem war.<p>By and large, with the exception of a few exclusives, the 360 and the PS3 have more or less the same set of games. Both were incredibly advanced and were a logical progression of the course that these systems were going. But they both more or less have the same software ecosystem. Most of the library available on one is available on the other.<p>Yet the Wii outsold both of them, using far less advanced technology and offering far inferior on-line play. Many people credit the control scheme, but because of the controls (and an incredible first party development house) Nintendo offered a truly unique software ecosystem.<p>So this current generation we've <i>really</i> had two software ecosystems, the 360/PS3 one and the Wii one.<p>So today we have three new consoles about to hit the market in the upcoming months, Valve's, the Ouya, and Project Shield, right after the Wii U.<p>Valve is going to offer the PC gaming ecosystem and probably the strong on-line offering that PC gamers enjoy, the Ouya and Shield are offering Android (plus some exclusives on either side), and the Wii U will continue to offer Nintendo's ecosystem. This leaves Microsoft and Sony to respond, probably with announcements this year and releases before Christmas of next, with their next offering.<p>Back in the 16-bit days, the market showed that there can really only be two console players. Third place was a very distant third (PC Engine). But it's worth it to keep in mind that the Megadrive/Genesis and Super Famicom/SNES had wildly different software ecosystems as well.<p>In the generation following we had a plethora of platforms as well, and it rapidly shook down to 2 (with 3rd place so bad that Sega made one more go of it with the Dreamcast then exited the business entirely). Nobody remembers the CD-I, 3D0, Jaguar, CD32 from this generation.<p>Following that we had the PS2, XBOX, Gamecube and Dreamcast. It shook down to an unusual <i>3</i> this time, but the XBOX was artificial in this environment with Microsoft willing to lose tons of cash on the investment and if you look at the numbers they really just split 2nd place with the Gamecube.<p>Today instead of two major consoles, we have two major ecosystems. 360/PS3 and Nintendo (in transition to the WiiU)...and we're about to add 2 more to it. I don't think it'll work. Somebody's going to exit the market. It just can't sustain 4 (5 if you count iOS which is kind of stretch).<p>The Console business is <i>hard</i> and the public is fickle.