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I'm Betting on Elon

124 pointsby danielodioover 12 years ago

26 comments

cjbprimeover 12 years ago
My problem with the "I'm betting on Elon" approach is that the market is clearly <i>already</i> betting on Elon, to the point of somewhere between 10-40x a sensible company valuation. If you buy now, you're betting on a clearly ridiculously-optimistic valuation being not quite ridiculously-optimistic enough. You're not the first person to have considered that the company might be successful and grow exponentially in the future -- that's already priced in to the stock!<p>Talking about long-term bets, it would be interesting to read about how the electric car future might tie into the driverless car future. My understanding is that we'll have many fewer cars around in the driverless future, even if the cars that we do have are electric.
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codexover 12 years ago
The lesson I draw from Tesla is that it's possible (even straightforward) to produce an amazing car if you're willing to lose a ton of money on each one and your competitors (mainstream auto makers) aren't. I say this because Tesla has, to date, been poor at controlling costs, enough so that the feds (Tesla's creditors) are concerned about their balance sheet, and Wall Street has hammered the stock.<p>For example, Tesla used to lose $30M a month. Last quarter it brought in hundreds of millions more in revenue, but still lost ~$30M a month. At some point, they hope to stop losing money, but then they're about to create two new products which will also incur large R&#38;D costs. To date, Tesla has lost about a billion dollars, or $50K per car sold, assuming they sell 20K cars next year.<p>So to a consumer, Tesla's cars look amazing compared to what else is on the market (after all, they're losing money on each one, which their competitors are unwilling to do); to an accountant, the company looks worrysome, and to an investor, the company looks like either a tremendous deal or a fantastic lemon, depending on the investors views about the size of the market, competition, and ability to control costs. At current rates, they will have more liabilities than assets three months.<p>Once Tesla can reign in their costs they can rewrite this story, and there's a good chance they can. Whether they can make electric cars more cheaply than mainstream automakers in the long term is, in my mind, an open question.
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timdorrover 12 years ago
From the article he references:<p>"Are there that many luxury car buyers out there who are willing to live with the limitations of an electric car? It seems doubtful to me."<p>Limitations? What limitations? I've been driving mine for 2 months and it's been a freeing experience. It doesn't go as far? My old ICE didn't go as far on a tank and required 10x the cost to fill up. I no longer feel guilty about driving to the grocery store a few miles away because I know I'm running my car at it's least efficient state. I just took a trip this weekend to some relatives in another part of my state (GA) with no concerns about range or having to compromise to extend it. Google Maps in the car has already saved me many times from heading into bad traffic (I would never remember to check traffic on my phone beforehand).<p>Honestly, if I'm being limited in some way, I'm not seeing it.
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VeejayRampayover 12 years ago
Besides the stocket market evaluations and all those considerations, I have to say that I am amazed how spoiled America is sometimes.<p>How I wish we had such an entrepreneur in Europe, someone willing to shake the status quo and speed up the process of making the future happen.<p>Tesla is a company that is trying to make AMERICAN electric cars, he should encouraged and cheered. People with some money and liberal views should be jumping on those cars, it's History in the making, a true revolution. I really hope he suceeds, that'd be an encouraging sign that science and technology can actually have a good impact on climate and consumer practices vis à vis greenhouse gases and the approach to modernity.
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quuxover 12 years ago
Sometimes I feel like Tesla is the NeXT of cars. Technologically impressive, but ahead of its time.<p>In 15 years electric cars will have much more market share, question is, will Tesla still be there leading the pack?<p>Maybe they can reverse acquire some ailing car company ;)
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eCaover 12 years ago
That page is in an eternal redirect loop (FF19/Win7). With a redirect to self every three seconds it is not easy to read.
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rdlover 12 years ago
I love Tesla as a company, but TSLA as a stock is broken. There seems to be serious manipulation going on -- right before long annual options expiry, the price drops, then pops right after. There was shadiness the previous year related to a drop, then announcing a departure of some mid-level exec, then a pop. I generally stick to options for playing things like AAPL, TSLA, etc. where it will move based on some specific accomplishments, but TSLA is one I own as stock directly.
3amover 12 years ago
The idea that TSLA's valuation should be modeled in the same was as Ford, GM, et al is so preposterous that I have trouble comprehending how someone can make the point in an honest fashion.<p>I think TSLA is richly valued and I would not buy it now (nor do I own shares), but saying it should have a similar P/S or EV/FCF to F is like saying that VMWare is overvalued by virtue of it having a higher valuation than HP.
brown9-2over 12 years ago
Of course, every other person who bought stock in a company after bad news where the company ended up going on to fail had the same reasoning:<p>- critics don't understand the master plan<p>- I'm betting on CEO X, and the market just doesn't understand him/her
lifeisstillgoodover 12 years ago
There is a lot of Elon love on HN - but the analysis here is fundamentally correct - bet on winners. And Elon will either win big or blow up big. Its a pretty good bet IMO.<p>And I am amazed to see the "relentlessly resourceful" tag be dropped casually in here - even if the author is part of the SV-mafia its still amazing what impact one mans' essays are having.<p>So that makes two people to bet on ...
blumentopfover 12 years ago
A minor correction to this article, to the best of my knowledge Mercedes-Benz uses batteries produced by Deutsche Accumotive (a joint-venture of Daimler and Evonik) both in the smart electric drive and the forthcoming B-Class E-Cell. The Tesla batteries were only used in pre-production smart electric drives, as a replacement for the old ZEBRA NaNiCl batteries.
moakleafover 12 years ago
Well... If the profit margin guidance for the next quarters is correct, and they are not hit by anything unexpected, the company should be trading at around 15 P/E by the end of 2013 at the current share price. Which would be great... But that means that there isn't likely to be any significant share price growth until then.<p>One problem with that analysis is that they have overpromised and underdelivered a bit in the past.<p>Another issue is that they only got 6000 new reservations in the last quarter. For them to have significant growth they need a lot more. And this is in a quarter where they were awarded car of the year and got fantastic reviews (except that NYT one).<p>I bet these reasons, combined with a standard sell-off of a stock that has increased by a lot the last quarter, and that you now really have to be patient for another or two quarters before anything significant happens, is why the stock is down today.<p>Personally, I am disappointed by the number of new reservations. I think it is far too low for a car with such stellar reviews.<p>I had hoped they would have more than 20000 reservations currently. 15-16000 is not even enough to use their full capacity for the year, so they need to start selling more.<p>I had also hoped the production rate would have been higher. 400 cars per week is also not enough in the long run. Elon talked about reaching 500 by the summer, and that really isn't that great. He also said that theoretically they didn't need to get more reservations in 2013, as they would have enough to use up their capacity. That also worried me.<p>I have seen analyst say they will produce 30000 cars in 2014. If that is the case, the share price is really not going to move a lot from current levels. Because the growth is just too small.<p>So I think a lot of shareholders feel like me, that the growth isn't significant enough.<p>I guess we need to wait another couple of quarters before we can say anything.
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nigglerover 12 years ago
Full Disclosure: I shorted a few weeks ago when the NYT article came out and covered today.<p>I would not bet on TSLA the stock just yet. They can be successful and profitable and yet still not come close to the current stock price (P/E contraction, future equity dilution). Most importantly, the thing which stemmed the drop today was a short-sale restriction (a circuit breaker after it falls 10%)<p>What would be a buy signal for me is when the car cost can be brought down to the 35-40K range (which, based on reports from mercedes benz and bmw, is the most profitable segment)
colmvpover 12 years ago
I think it's weird to bet on the person instead of the company. I'd hate to be in a company or team where outsiders focused on one person.
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6renover 12 years ago
Elon isn't competing against Ford. He's competing against Exxon.<p><i>EDIT</i> mkt cap: Ford 47.24B <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=f" rel="nofollow">https://www.google.com/search?q=f</a> Exxon 398.83B <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=xom" rel="nofollow">https://www.google.com/search?q=xom</a>
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tomasienover 12 years ago
The absolute best way to buy stocks is to wait until something happens in the market that seems to be based on emotions and then bet the other way. 2 best examples I can remember where I noticed this was when Citi was at $1 despite the fact we knew the bailout was coming (I bought, but not enough) and when Facebook was at $17 because investors kept getting hammered with "Facebook hasn't figured out mobile" shit over and over. Didn't buy then because I was super broke (<a href="http://tommy.authpad.com/the-one-year-anniversary-of-sleeping-in-the-freezing-cold-without-power-or-heat-in-the-middle-of-a-crime-scene" rel="nofollow">http://tommy.authpad.com/the-one-year-anniversary-of-sleepin...</a>)
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droithommeover 12 years ago
I'm looking forward to purchasing a Volkswagen XL1.<p><a href="http://theage.drive.com.au/motor-reviews/worlds-most-efficient-car-20130222-2ev0a.html" rel="nofollow">http://theage.drive.com.au/motor-reviews/worlds-most-efficie...</a><p>Since it gets 261 MPG, I can drive across the entire United States and only make one stop for refueling, using around 9 gallons of diesel for the whole trip. Driving with a friend at 60mph and bringing a sack lunch, we can even make the trip in only 38 hours since there will be no overnight recharging stops.<p>And when the 5.5kWh Lithium Ion battery fails, it will only cost 1/15 the replacement cost of a 85kWh Lithium Ion battery.
tokenadultover 12 years ago
From the blog post, "Tesla stock is down almost 10% today, after its 2012 earnings report became public. Tesla missed its projections and investors hammered the stock in response."<p>I guess that's what you call contrarian investing. Sometimes that works just fine. Sometimes that doesn't work so well. People who have extra money to buy speculative stocks can make their own call on this, I guess.<p>I found it interesting that there were many news reports about the Tesla fourth quarter results call yesterday.<p>"Tesla 4Q net loss widens on costs for new car"<p><a href="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2013-02-20/tesla-4q-net-loss-widens-on-costs-for-new-car" rel="nofollow">http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2013-02-20/tesla-4q-net-loss-...</a><p>"As Tesla Eyes Profit, Elon Musk Wants to Punch Himself in the Face"<p><a href="http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-20/as-tesla-eyes-profit-elon-musk-wants-to-punch-himself-in-the-face" rel="nofollow">http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-20/as-tesla-eye...</a><p>"Loss Widens at Electric-Car Maker"<p><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323549204578316082000311770.html" rel="nofollow">http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732354920457831...</a><p>"Tesla’s Earnings Indicate Some Customer Cancellations"<p><a href="http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/02/20/teslas-earnings-indicate-some-customer-cancellations/" rel="nofollow">http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/02/20/teslas-earnings-indic...</a><p>"Tesla posts revenue of $306 million, larger-than-expected loss"<p><a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-autos-tesla-2012-earnings-announced-20130220,0,7725.story" rel="nofollow">http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-autos-tesla-2...</a><p>So, yeah, some investors will read all that and still bet on Tesla's stock having a rising value over their investment time frame. But customers who are thinking about buying the car might wonder if the company has enough financial strength, while losing money on every car it sells, to provide long-term customer service and the promised completion of the Supercharger network, etc. If it's your money, spend it how you like, but be sure to diversify for maximum safety.
chris_mahanover 12 years ago
I betted on Elon and bought TSLA at 16, 22, 28, and 33. When I saw the CEO of Toyota with Elon behind the same podium, I knew he had been vetted by the best in the business. Ref: <a href="http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/lh9s3JaOMRr/Gov+Arnold+Schwarzenegger+Tesla+Motors+Make/lVfYHyKChJZ/Elon+Musk" rel="nofollow">http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/lh9s3JaOMRr/Gov+Arnold+Schwar...</a>
dkroyover 12 years ago
My first thought for this was, wow cool looking site. I then played around with the responsive nature of it.
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BrainScrapsover 12 years ago
I'm also a Musketeer.<p>I think the company as a whole executes brilliantly, but I decided to allocate a good chunk of my (measly) portfolio to TSLA as a result of Elon's track record and vision.<p>I wonder if we'll soon see a prospectus for the "Musk Fund" containing only companies that he's been involved in...
kirpekarover 12 years ago
At the end of the day, you are only "betting". When you know something for sure, I'll pay attention.
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Scaevolusover 12 years ago
The page refreshes itself continuously. How did you even manage that?<p>(I block 3rd party cookies)
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scottschulthessover 12 years ago
"Tesla absolutely will get to Ford's volume production numbers with this strategy"<p>really? maybe eventually. we are a ways off from mass market all electric vehicles.
rabbitonrailsover 12 years ago
Elon is betting on SpaceX.
Skoofooover 12 years ago
It's not hard to bet on a massively successful entrepreneur.