Nassim Taleb is a wonderful thinker and writer. The fall of Fannie Mae was hinted in his 2007 book 'Black Swan: The Impact of Highly Improbable' the following sentence is a from his book - "The government-sponsored institution Fannie Mae, when I look at its risks, seems to be sitting on a barrel of dynamite, vulnerable to the slightest hiccup". Not only Nassim Taleb, I remember George Soros referring to Fannie Mae and lurking troubled housing market long before the onset of the financial crisis.