One day offices will be a thing of the past

In general, predicting that something that has been around for centuries will be gone in decades is a bad bet. I wonder if Richard Branson has ever spent long periods of time working alone.<p>I spent six months working remotely in 2004. What led me to start my company in 2005 was not the desire to make money; I had enough back then. I really missed the in-person interaction with other hackers. I was living in Buenos Aires at the time. What I wanted did not exist there so I had to create it.

I recently had a friendly debate about this with a friend (ex-Yahoo of the golden years). The interesting thing is that a distributed organization, such as Yahoo or Google, or pretty much any multi-national, telecommuting is already in their work practices - whenever you have to coordinate across office locations, you are effectively telecommuting to that office.<p>However, that's not the interesting part of the conversation. What we pretty much both agreed on is that as the technology progresses, what we term in person interactions will change drastically. Today, when we talk about virtual reality, we are still bound in our conduits into that world.<p>Imagine if we had the ability to completely immerse ourselves into a virtual reality, Matrix-style. In that world, your commute is nothing more than going to a chair and loading the program. From there, you can appear anywhere in that virtual reality. It can be in the shape of an office, or a green field with desks, or no desk, pretty much anything the organization/group of people wants. With the totality of human senses present, neither of us debating the issue could see anything missing that a physical presence would provide.<p>Throw in the current trend of shrinking employment, and the future of the office buildings in the next few hundred years seems to be in question.<p>Technologically, we are not there yet and it's not clear if this will happen in our lifetime. However, it no longer feels like a pure sci-fi notion.

<p><pre><code> Choice empowers people and makes for a more content workforce. </code></pre> ...<p><pre><code> people are going to look back and wonder why offices ever existed </code></pre> The choice employees make is always going to be to work from home? Surely <i>forced</i> attendance at an office every day 9 - 5 will be looked back on as something that should never have existed, but offices disappearing completely seems unlikely.

We make machines to replace workers, for lots of really great reasons. But, where does that end?<p>I'm struggling to think of a task that a machine cant or wont be able to do. I cant get further than art and thinking up things for machines to do, but even then I'm not so sure. I'm sure even philosophical issues could eventually be determined by a computer program. Robots can perform most mundane tasks, and equally highly complex tasks we cant even do. We even have machines that design and build machines.<p>So yeah, offices will be a thing of the past, because workers will be a thing of the past. Well, just a few workers who watch over the machines. But, wont they be deemed inefficient?

I've read a lot about telecommuting here on HN lately. While I do this myself, I'm hoping that one day infrastucture and cost of living near the workplace will be at a point where everyone can just walk to the office (in 5-10 minutes). This is the best of all possible worlds for me: healthier, allows working from home and still dropping in at work for meetings or lunch or whatever comes up and no getting stuck in rush hour traffic (not in the car and neither in the subway/tram), no dangerous biking (in the city).<p>Also, Mr. Branson does not look too comfortable in his outdoor chair next to the street. ;-)

These kinds of black-and-white views need to stop.<p>Some jobs (highly self-directed, autonomous, don't need teamwork) can be done just fine from home.<p>Other jobs (collaborative, creative, culture-building) just can't, or it's very difficult.<p>And then there are obviously a lot of gray areas in the middle, since a lot of jobs are a mix of things, as well as accountability and productivity-measurement being a big factor too (some people will get away with slacking off if they can).<p>Every kind of job and company is different, and needs to figure it out for themselves. And when you don't work at a specific organization, it's hard to know what they really need.

People seem to think there is only one answer to this question but companies need to figure out what is best for them depending on their employees, culture etc. Right now I think the core problem of remote work is verifying that people are in fact working efficiently. Also people really need to use better metrics to make judgments; parking lot 'emptiness' or even VPN access logs do not hold meaning if projects are on time, and the deadlines are not lax.

A lot of proponents of home working seem to ignore one of the big reasons people may want to work in a centralised space (be it an office, co-working space, somewhere else..) - the interaction with other people.<p>I hate working at home - I get cabin fever, bored and lonely. I prefer being around other people and having that interaction (IM, video calls just aren't the same). I like a change of scenery during the day.<p>It's nice to have the option to work from home when necessary (e.g. to avoid having to take a sick day, wait in for a delivery etc) - but I'd hate to do it every day.<p>I don't doubt that the nature of offices will change (e.g. I find it hard to imagine that cubicle farms have much future), and that the number of people working remotely <i>will</i> increase, but I'd be very surprised if offices disappear completely.

I hope companies of the future will at least offer working space as a perk. I am much less productive at home with my pets around, and I can't imagine what it will be like once I have children.<p>In my experience, offices are a painful place to watch the clock but a great place to actually get stuff done.

I've worked remotely more often than not over the last 3 years. It's becoming a more common trend. I am glad for it.<p>I was skeptical at first as I was prone to the common, ephemeral ailment of loneliness. However advances in group video chat, online whiteboards, cafes with high-speed wireless and power bars, shared working spaces... I prefer it to working in an office. I can choose when I am distracted, I can change my environment to suit my mood, and I get more work done over all.<p>I also get to spend more time with my family and less time commuting (which is a complete waste of your life).<p>I look forward to offices being "optional," but I doubt they will disappear completely. We are, by nature, social creatures. I predict that we will instead employ communal spaces instead of the traditional, "company office."

Offices are a cost center and have their own set of inefficiencies. I think Mayer was correct in "correcting" an issue at Yahoo! which is that many employees were gaming it. There is a value in face-to-face connection. We can do away with offices as long as there are community spaces (public or private) where people can connect. There is good value in finding a balance between isolation time and collaboration time. Offices might tend towards collaboration time and lose out on isolation time, while the opposite is often true with strictly home offices.

I worked from home as a freelancer for several years until one of my clients insisted that I spend a full, regular work-day at their office at least once a week. When I did that I discovered that I was far more productive, even if the space they gave me was noisier.<p>I'm a lot different from others, though, in that I'm not only easily distracted, I also have chronic problems with motivation. I.e.: when I'm at home I'm a slacker, and when I'm at an office I'm not (or not _as much_).<p>After a few weeks of this I began offering to spend full days, once a week, at some of my other clients, and observed a boost in productivity there, too.<p>I know of some work-at-home freelancers who have set aside a room in their home that they treat quite strictly as their office, even dressing in a suit and tie every morning and "commuting" from their bedroom down the stairs or across the hall. They find that it helps them get into the right mindset so they can more easily suppress the temptation to knock-off for a few minutes and watch TV, or play with the cat, or whatever.<p>Meyer might be doing something slightly different, though, which is that she needs to get Yahoo! onto a new track. This must be accomplished psychologically as well as technically and logistically, and I know many companies have tried a variety of tricks to get their employees to think differently, shift into a different mindset. Changing decor, company colors, cubicles-to-open-space or vice-versa, different dress codes, and so-on.<p>This might be a permanent thing at Yahoo!, or maybe they will begin slowly re-introducing work-at-home. A kind of reverse if what I did, perhaps: one day a week, or month, while keeping tabs on how the employee's performance differs. Some may perform better, some (like me) might not have the discipline.

Working Remotely != Working from home. Often when I'm working remotely, I'm either in a coffee shop or a co-working location, vary rarely at home. I don't like driving, so being able to control when and where I drive is huge.<p>The big issue is that of being able to control my own environment. If it's too hot, I can work someplace where it's not, same if it's too loud. When you require everyone to work in one shared area, this control disappears and you're often left to the whims of either the weak common denominator, the highest paid person, or the loudest (ie the small thin woman that keeps the office incredibly hot)<p>If you want dedicated employees, don't run a shitty company.

Apparently I'm an anomaly, but I like going to the office. Currently my company's offices are utter shit, but I'm still not opposed to the concept in general... and I still come in despite the less-than-inspiring setup we have at the moment.<p>I think what's crucial here, however, is that I don't extrapolate my "I prefer to work in an office" sentiment to everyone, like Bloomberg does. Furthermore, I'm lucky in that I have a choice in this and my bosses are constantly encouraging me to work from home more.<p>So I think if there's one thing it's better to predict, it's that employee choice will be much more of the norm, not that offices themselves will be history.

Empowering employees with choice is always a good thing as long as results are prioritized above their choices. My policy has always been to present company goals to our staff like so: Get X done, by Y, and be sure it meets our standard of quality. I don't care if you work in your childhood tree house up until Y as long as I am able to contact you if needed &#38; you produce the desired results.<p>Marissa Meyer likely saw that the freedom wasn't producing the results she would like &#38; decided to reel it in. I'm sure it will return when appropriate.<p>The wave of the future will be MORE offices that make people not want to leave.

Choice is a great thing and for some jobs it's reasonable to allow people some flexibility in where and when they work.<p>But I would be less happy flying on Mr Branson's airline if the pilots were allowed to telecommute.

Employers like the current setup because they can make sure people aren’t playing Minesweeper all day. And people still feel that face-to-face conversations have higher information density.<p>But if holographic teleconferencing becomes mainstream, then I could see a lot more knowledge based work being done remotely. That has downsides as well. Why employ an American, if you can get a qualified person in say, Poland, who speaks fluent English, is willing to work in your timezone, and has the equipment to virtually be around in 3D?

I love working from home and also enjoy the occasional day in the office with my peers. But I prefer to work at home most of the time. Avoiding the daily commute is a <i>wonderful</i> thing.

I'd far prefer to work in a well configured space, vs. itinerant coffeeshops. But that might be personal space vs. a business, and wouldn't have much in common with most offices I've ever seen. (I'd like a big hw lab space, smallish but comfortable private office, and various areas on a campus or large building which are either dedicated to a specific task or just interesting.)<p>Maybe closer to a university's layout for a professor or postdoc than most commercial offices.

This has to happen sooner or later, if for no other reason than the tremendous amount of damage that commuting by automobile is doing to the environment. Commuting is also a huge, inefficient waste of time and a major source of unhappiness and poor health.<p>Self-driving electric cars and buses will help alleviate this pain point, but electric cars still cause pollution--just at a (often coal-burning) central power plant instead of an internal combustion engine.

One day jobs will be a thing of the past. How will our current society adapt when we reach a point that we are so productive that we don't need everyone to work?

Offices? Probably not. Entire floors and buildings without any purpose other than holding offices and cubicles? Yes, they were a fairly recent invention and will probably be gone soon.<p>Remote work may be somewhat inefficient now, but when our technologies get good enough to build a room for consistent telepresence, there will be little point in having a cubicle across town when you can own a customized office and virtually project it anywhere.

If the work gets done and deadlines are met working from home should not cause any problems.We have technology to support working remotely but the real issue is that human interaction gets lost if we move towards this trend. This debate depends on the industry you work for its not a black or white issue.

I think that offices will always be around. Yes, being able to work from wherever and connect with people through tech is amazing but there is NOTHING like a face to face discussion. Human contact is essential; especially where company culture is concerned.

"One day people will just swallow a handy pill instead of eating food!"<p>The future will be completely weird and amazing, but it won't be the weird and amazing you thought of...

Whether or not Branson is right (I don't think he is), it's completely irrelevant to the yahoo situation which is just one company at one point in time.

That's a sad prediction. I like going into the office.

"I have enormous respect for Michael Bloomberg and have rarely disagreed with anything he has done or said..."<p>I really could not get past this introductory bit. It tainted my opinion of everything Branson said. If Branson has enormous respect for Michael Bloomberg, I can't really muster much respect for him in turn. Which is a shame, because I essentially agree with him on this point--working from home--in particular.<p>Though I also feel it's any company's prerogative to allow or disallow working from home.

Was anyone else like "wtf is a one day office?"

On the same day, jetpacks and flying cars will be released. With a half-price introductory offer.

Tangential : every time I read this title, I ask myself what a "one day office" is.

This seemed to completely ignore expensive shared capital, like the tens of millions of dollars of digital test equipment engineers use to design iOS devices, Android devices, perform diagnostics in medicine, fly that capital as Virgin airlines, for examples. Nice buzz-generating headline, though.

One day we will have teleportation and this discussion will be pointless. :)

I love how he ends it with a question. Most blogs are so dictatorial.

How about non-performing workers?

Yep, partially due to technology but I also think in 30 years almost everyone will be a freelancer and "jobs" as we know them today will be very very rare.