Holy cow. It was worth $60 last time I checked (last time a story was discussed on HN). I'm not one usually to play Chicken Little, but doesn't a 50% rise in a matter of a week or two seem a bit unsettling? Unless adoption has risen similarly, which I doubt -- it's not like Amazon just announced they'll be accepting BTC.<p>Enjoy the run, speculators. But don't get greedy -- remember the tulips...
Bitcoin definitely has potential. I doubt if it's in a bubble. Its a right mix of need and want for the global economy. It is also getting a lot of traction. As more enterprises adopt, the more its potential for disruption. [Disclaimer: I have bitcoins in my wallet]
Anyone know if there is a good bitcoin futures/options market with good liquidity?<p>The vol on this asset class is out of this world and given that it's so new, pricing on these things must be so out of wack that it'll be good to exploit.<p>Only if there's a good futures exchange like Mt.Gox that's very very authoritative.<p>And also important for the bitcoin infrastructure, that way merchants will take bitcoins for less risk since they can hedge it against dollar or euro's. A big money potential out there. Some one please take the idea and build one so everyone can profit.
I find bitcoin fascinating, but everyone who's bullish on it should understand the fundamental issue with its price stability, as pointed out by libertarian GMU economist Tyler Cowen (among others, presumably):<p>> It is a privately created fiat currency, bundled together with an anonymity scheme for transactions. The anonymity scheme means there is some reason to grant one-time seigniorage to the original currency issuers. Eventually the anonymity scheme, in some form or another, will be available without the fiat currency. At that point, or more likely before then, the fiat currency will fall to near-zero in value. Hold it at your own risk. The original issuers will have kept some of their initial gains.<p><a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/04/the-economics-of-bitcoin.html" rel="nofollow">http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/04/the...</a><p>Essentially, the value of a bitcoin is set by the value of all worldwide transactions desired which utilize bitcoin's advantages (anonymity, security from government intervention, etc) divided by the total number of bitcoins, which is capped. However, there is nothing to stop someone from starting a competitor (perhaps with some slight improvement) which duplicates all of bitcoin's functionality and essentially inflates away bitcoin's value. In fact, it might not be crazy to suppose governments would do this on purpose.
That's a lot of money. What is this $1 billion being used for? Is this money just circulating for the sake of making more money, or is it being used to buy goods and services?
If you're trying to figure out how to buy bitcoins, check this out:<p><a href="http://howdoyoubuybitcoins.com/" rel="nofollow">http://howdoyoubuybitcoins.com/</a><p>I recommend Bitfloor at the moment because they offer free capitolone360 transfers as well as cash deposits at local banks for only 1%.<p>If you're an accreted investor, check out <a href="http://tradehill.com/" rel="nofollow">http://tradehill.com/</a>
By design, the supply of new bitcoins is slowing down. If there continues to be utility for people to use bitcoins, and this usage is increasing, the value of an individual bitcoin vs. other currencies will increase (averaging out speculative action).<p>This pattern will very likely continue until an alternative is found. Perhaps the alternative will simply be for holders to return to national currencies, perhaps it will be to adopt a new bitcoin rival for transactions and value storage.<p>In the short-run, there may be speculation, bubbles, and pops. That gets the attention. But look beyond that. In the long-run, the bitcoin economy may indeed "grow" to many times its current "size".
The price chart looks a lot like the transaction volume chart, which is usually how I make my guesses as to whether we're in a bubble or not - increase in price without similar increase in usage = bubble. That said, it's anyone's call.
There have been some strong signs of an inflection point in the last couple of weeks.<p>The FinCEN guidance was a major step forward for Bitcoin, allowing companies to start taking Bitcoin as a serious option.<p>For example, see this announcement today, from a company that processes payments for local governments. They plan to offer bitcoin acceptance to those governments for all sorts of online payments. You might soon be able to pay local taxes using bitcoin!<p><a href="http://www2.egovlink.com/press-release-bitcoin.cfm" rel="nofollow">http://www2.egovlink.com/press-release-bitcoin.cfm</a><p>They directly state this is a result of FinCEN's statements. The floodgates may be opening.
I can't help but think of all the people (in the US) who will owe back taxes for 2013 for unreported foreign currency exchange gain...or (in the event Bitcoin crashes again) all the people who won't realize that they have foreign currency exchange losses that could reduce their other taxable income...
After a few weeks ago reading that BTC was at $45/btc and thinking this has to drop drastically soon enough only to see it now at $90... Not saying this growth isn't possible but it's not sustainable this early on, unless I'm wrong?
There's an interesting spike in bitcoin value everyday when Europe wakes up. This does look like a bubble but at the end of the day, as long as the rest of the world currencies keep people nervous, bitcoin will gain wider adoption.