I feel like I don't really know enough about this to speculate. I think both articles (this one and the one it links to which argues the opposite) both have some good points. But I get the impression that, like me, neither author really knows this space well enough to draw good conclusions.<p>I like the data point (from the baptiste piece) that offline commerce is still 95% of spending, thus it is a 19x larger market than e-commerce. I think the point in the shah piece about "I didn't even want a pastry" is also good. But to me it doesn't really argue that this is a failure. To me, it argues that this is a first step which, like all first steps, will need to be followed up with refinement of their monetization strategy.<p>I have a certificate in GIS. I live without a car and have some other issues. I have been thinking here lately about my frustrations with using the internet to try to find stuff in the real world. In many ways, the internet has been a godsend in that regard. But in other ways it has been pretty crazymaking. I asked a bit about this elsewhere recently. It didn't really result in some huge epiphany that I am just doing it wrong. It resulted in me concluding that this intersection of the web and the real world is just not that well done yet.<p>So I think Four Square is breaking new ground. Yes, that's always risky. But I am guessing they understand this space better than the hn equivalent of a few "armchair politicians" looking on from the outside. (My dad had a brilliant solution for every social ill ever. And was happy to share his wisdom while watching game shows and eating peanuts and doing not a damn thing about any of them. So, erm, I learned long ago that "talk is cheap.")
I largely agree with the OP. This reminds me of Loopt.<p>If I were Foursquare, I would use the metadata (reviews, checkins, etc) to build a Yellow Pages site that's powered by 4sq users gestures. But I'd leave monitization out of the consumer app entirely, and just focus on making it great and popular.<p>Internet yellow pages is crazy boring, stupidly profitable, and waiting for disruption. Google Places and Yelp are currently passing for disruption in that space. 4sq is in a unique position to do better.<p>Ditto for the Better Business Bureau.<p>Just my $.02.
I think 4sq will have an exit at a multiple that breaks even for the VCs, gives the founder a small sum of cash and leaves many employees high and dry.<p>My personal opinion is that they raised too much, didn't built right Facebook integration and have never really figured out their market. They sure do have a lot of users<p>Hell, if yahoo is willing to pay 30M for summly, who knows what they might shell out for a company that actually has users and technology!
Not a heavy foursquare user, but have used it occasionally mostly to check out recommended places to eat nearby, not so much for the social aspect of checking-in.<p>In this case, seeing some discounts around me when I search might not be such a bad thing. As long as I don't doubt the integrity or priority of real user recommendations over paid ones. If they strike a good balance, I can see this becoming a good direction for all involved: foursquare, me as a customer and (perhaps also very importantly) local businesses...<p>On the last front however, I can see how big businesses take over the advertised space, being able to pay more for it, and in turn perhaps pushing small local businesses out of focus. This could be the biggest risk I imagine.
I'm curious what others think about this. I'm a fan of Foursquare and their team and hope I am wrong about this. I'm also confident they will still have a large exit.<p>That being said, without a product hook that's very engaging, I think it's hard to build a local ads business, which is what I think Foursquare sees as its revenue stream. Do people see Foursquare differently, as say, an ecommerce company? Do they even need a growing product hook to build a good local ads business?
The pastry example is really important. You can't just serve ads to people, they have to be targeted toward the users' interests. Perhaps they're based on your check-in history, but this won't convert well to sporadic users.<p>I don't know how the majority of Foursquare users use the service, but my friends and I pretty much only use it to check-in - at a place that we had pre-determined. There is no discovery or opportunity for an ad to capture my attention or push me toward a promoted business. If I'm going to get a burger I don't care about your pastry ad. But there's no way for Foursquare to get this information. Not without disrupting the check-in experience.<p>As has been suggested, I don't see how Foursquare can grow their ad network with this kind of usage. How can they convince businesses to sign on?
> Check-ins are moving to Facebook, Path, etc., so now Foursquare is left with local promotions but no core utility for the user.<p>Is this anecdotal or based on data?
I always thought that Foursquare was going to monetize like BellyCard, by using it for a rewards program. Letting business reward their frequent customers and sending them coupons, etc, seems like something that local businesses would pay for.