I've <i>felt</i> this way since I built my last desktop in 2008. I was sort-of waiting for the "gee its time to upgrade" mark to roll around in 3 or 4 years, but it hasn't happened yet. Any games I want to play it still runs very well, and it still <i>feels</i> very fast to me even compared to modern systems.<p>When my friends ask for advice I tell them if they like the keyboard and screen, then its just plain hard to be disappointed with anything new.<p>I think I can pinpoint when this happened. It was the SSD. Getting an SSD was the last upgrade I ever needed.<p>~~~<p>Something does worry me slightly about the large shift to tablets, which are great devices in their own right. It's hard(er) to create new content on a tablet, and I don't really want that becoming the default computer for any generation.<p>I think its extremely healthy to have the lowest bar possible to go from "Hey I like that" to "Can I do that? Can I make it myself?"<p>I think its something hackers, especially those with children should ask themselves: <i>Would I still be me,</i> if I had grown up around primarily content consumption computing devices instead of more general purpose laptops and desktops?
There was an article posted yesterday in which IDC blames Microsoft and Windows 8 in their report for the decline in PC sales but it's refreshing to see proper journalism acknowledging that isn't solely the case and in-fact Apple are selling fewer Mac's as well. The world is moving toward mobile devices. PC's will always serve a purpose, but for some people a PC isn't needed at all. As a developer and a bit of a designer, I couldn't picture myself coding on a tablet nor designing on one (prototyping a design maybe). It's a changing landscape, the likes of Google Glass give us a glimpse what a future without desktop computer domination looks like.<p>The real issue here as touched upon in the article is the fact that new computers don't really offer an advantage over older computers. Upgrading from a 386 to a 486 back in the day was a reason to upgrade but my current machine which is a spec'd out Core i7 will last me until it stops working in 4 to 5 years time. The only sector of computing probably still thriving is storage, people probably upgrade their hard drives more than they do their computers. Computing has reached a point where a CPU will last 4 years but a hard drive only lasts as long as it has space left.
The sad thing about this is that tablets and phones aren't nearly as good at content creation. A physical keyboard is still the fastest brain --> computer interface in town. Also, tablets and phones aren't self-hosting. You can't develop iOS apps on an iOS device. This makes it much harder for inexperienced people to get into programming. Taking the plunge into programming will be like deciding to buy an instrument and learning to play it.<p>While most people are never going to write software, those who do will be hurt by the drop in PC sales. In the past, PC R&D costs were borne by the general public. Now the public is moving to mobile devices, but developers still need to buy full-fledged computers. Lower PC sales means costs will go up (since R&D can't be spread across as many units) or manufacturers won't develop new features as quickly.<p>There's some silver lining: the technologies used in tablets overlap quite a bit with those used in laptops. Developers won't be stuck completely in the past, but future PCs might be a little too tablet-y for their tastes. (This is already happening with Windows 8).
Last year I bought a new motherboard with an eight-core processor when my old one died. Just a couple of day ago I realized that my experience with that set up is exactly the same as the previous one I bought in 2008. The 1TB hard drive I bought in 2009 is only half full. 16GB of RAM runs no better than 4. Two cores humming along at 3000 mHz can handle everything I throw at them. The others sit idle.<p>It's a huge change from ten years ago when I would anxiously await the day when I could afford a new rig because I was already pushing my three-year old one to its limit. Desktop PC technology has clearly reached the point where its capabilities far exceed the needs of ordinary users.
I still think the problem is the complete lack of innovation with desktop displays for the past twelve years [1]. I very badly want a home computing environment that features a ~50 inch high-DPI screen that I view at a distance of approximately 2 to 3 feet.<p>I feel high resolution, high density displays would reinvigorate what we currently call "desktop" computing.<p>[1] <a href="http://tiamat.tsotech.com/displays-are-the-key" rel="nofollow">http://tiamat.tsotech.com/displays-are-the-key</a>
On my dev computer at work i used to be able to integrate the whole application environment. No more. To get a bigger and bigger machine,for me that is not affordable. Not to forget the taken space, the produced heat and the noise from this clumsy pc box.<p>So we started to build our own infrastructure, enabled virtualization and giving everyone, what he needs. Growing as needed. It feels like a natural development to me.<p>The modularization of racks becomes better: separate hot-swappable and inter-connected cpu, fast ram, slower storage units. Feels like a pc itself again. Maybe that shrinks and we get it at home again.<p>I like the idea of owning my own pc. But i think, it gets more and more difficult to have everything on it. I will end up with a lot of servers anyways.<p>On the other hand, a lot of people develop web applications. For that i dont need much power.<p>-> i need more power
-> some people dont need much power
=> maybe thats one reason why the pc market shrinks<p>:)
Are they taking into account global economic crisis?<p>Because I'm pretty sure that businesses were the main buyers of new computers, and that they're not going to buy new computers unless they really need to in this climate.<p>I agree that Vista, when launched, put a lot of people off.
The PC (or the Mac) is, of course, a long way from perfect, but you can count me as another data point for the theory that hardware pretty much reached "good enough for just about anything" a few years back, and I'm saying that as someone who is a programmer and a gamer, so for Joe Q. Public running Office and Chrome this point was reached even sooner.<p>Core 2 Duo w/ 4 gigs of RAM was, I'd guess, basically the tipping point for normal users, Nehalem w/ 8 gigs of RAM, GeForce 4xx and an SSD for the system disk was the tipping point for people like me.<p>I used to upgrade my system yearly (buying parts off Newegg, reusing existing bits where they made sense to do so) but now it is more like every three years and growing each time.<p>There are, of course, lots of ways PC manufacturers can turn this around with increased novel input methods, more hybrid devices and especially an increased focus on higher resolution screens (which has a multiplier effect because if you truly boost your on-screen resolution, you'll soon start feeling cramped by your CPU, GPU and memory again), but the days of tossing out more powerful CPUs, GPUs and a bit more RAM (and then calling it a day as far as new features are concerned) are over.
I must say, despite the gloomy outlook, isn't the fact that most of the market is running on old machines not a bad one?<p>Why do you buy a new pc? Why, of course, to do something your old one couldn't. Now, you have six year old consoles so your standard port won't be incredibly pretty or taxing.<p>Give it a months after the launch of the next-gen consoles and PC sales should see an uptake as people start buying the awesome looking ports that are being crapped out in the dozens by the big AAA devshops.<p>While it won't fix the market, it should have a serious effect upon the profitability of a pc business. Combined with the fact that your tablet, which was nearing the current console power, is now looking pretty bad that is even more reason for the market to keep on chugging with consumers realizing their all in one isn't the beauty they thought it was.<p>You guys say you haven't upgraded in years because you can run the new games on a very decent level? Just you wait.
I used to decry notebooks/laptops as a way to get "real work" done, but nowadays they are commonplace.<p>Beyond work, everything else is easier/better on a tablet/phone.<p>At this point the only reason I have a windows PC any more is for "HD" gaming and the occasional windows only software.
I would guess that Windows Blue is another data point to support the thesis. Windows sales have traditionally been tied to hardware sales. With declining hardware sales it seems like a way to try to keep milking the cash cow.<p>And . . . when I Googled for a link to info about Blue for context, lo and behold, I found this:
<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323741004578416902650278178.html" rel="nofollow">http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732374100457841...</a>
Basically, PCs are dumb, boring work terminals for old people.<p>Children coming of computing age when the iPhone was released are now 9 years old, perhaps on their second or third portable gaming device, and lobbying their parents for an iPhone.<p>What on Earth would they possibly want a slow, dirty, heavy keyboard computer for? You can't even take a picture with it unless it's an Apple.