An interesting viewpoint on what it takes to "predict" such influential events (including the adoption of a particular product/service) is the <i>black swan theory</i>. Nassim Nicholas Taleb seems to be very closely associated with it.<p>Basically, Taleb says the event must be:<p>1. Quite difficult to predict<p>2. Have an significant impact<p>3. Be able to be explained rationally, after the fact<p>Examples include September 11th attacks, the personal computer, Google and others.<p>-----------------<p>Read more about at your desired level of interest:<p>wiki: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory</a><p>video: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDbuJtAiABA" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDbuJtAiABA</a><p>pdf: <a href="http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ARTE.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ARTE.pdf</a><p>book: <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515" rel="nofollow">http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp...</a><p>-----------------<p>Note: I found the writing style of the author to be a little quirky. You may want to read a sample chapter at local bookstore before going all in.