I agree that tablets lend themselves to more graceful interaction in <i>some scenarios</i>, and that the cognitive delight of the interface is itself a feature that may spark new kinds of uses.<p>However, I have to place bets that the future of touch is going to be 99% consumption. And the production that's done on it will be "production-lite". Can anyone who currently produces multimedia at a professional level -- e.g. video, photos, music -- imagine that a sophisticated touch interface will replace their keystrokes and mouse?<p>In other words: is it possible for touch-gestures to replicate even just a handful of the keyboard commands (nevermind the keyboard + mouse combos) that we take for granted? And if so, would this new set of physical interactions be more intuitive to learn than Ctrl-A, Ctrl-Z, Ctrl-C, Alt-Tab, etc. etc.?<p>I don't think so. Sure, "Alt-Tab" and "Alt-tilde" don't map to natural human experience the same way that swiping four-fingers (or is it 3?)...but maybe that's the point. The function provided by Alt-Tab is very computer-dependent...multi-tasking between running programs. If "Alt-Tab" seems too non-natural of a "gesture", it's because it's handling a non-natural concept.<p>Already, we can see the problem with how Apple has tried to map iOS features to multifinger swipe. Does anyone else have problems remembering what 3 fingers in one direction does versus four fingers horizontally? And that's not even getting to the imprecision of detection, which I'll concede is something that will improve vastly in the near future.<p>But it's been about 6 years since Apple made the touch interface ubiquitous. And it's still cuss-word-excruciating to do something as simple as highlight a select few words out of a line (especially if they're in a overflow input field), copy and then paste them.<p>And 5 years later, Apple still hasn't come up with a better way to "Undo" something than by shaking your device. I wonder how many production professionals here could retain their sanity with Cmd-Z?
People who want touch to not replace traditional keyboards are the same people who still like terminals. I like terminals, but I also see two year olds able to pick up touch interfaces while I see adults struggle with a mouse and keyboard.<p>That's a huge shift.
I don't see any reason to believe that a switch to "Android first" is imminent for most developers, particularly those in the U.S.<p>Not only are iOS users much better sources of revenue, but the iPhone continues to be the best-selling phone in the U.S. <i>plus</i> the iPad is growing 3x as fast as the iPhone did <i>plus</i> the iPod touch has sold 100 million units. It's not a small market.<p>On top of that is the diversity issue. Android may have greater total marketshare, but to access that full marketshare, developers must target and test a huge variety of hardware specs and OS versions.
I think there is a strong future in touch - and I think it'll enable a lot of the things the mouse should have (and did, sort of). I think (hope) we'll see real styluses become an integrated part of the touch experience, probably with a couple of buttons (and possibly the use of both "ends" - eg: one for draw, one for erase).<p>(This is just as we don't finger paint as much as we use brushes, pens, crayons and pencils). Maybe just "finger tip"-like styluses.<p>I also thing basic multi-touch will go further, with more "snap-to", select-and/or-do-what-I-mean-like behaviour will become the norm (eg: double-tap > select sentence).<p>I hope we'll see some development in the line of smalltalk and similar meaningful GUI environments.<p>When I first saw the intro to the ACME-editor[1] for plan 9, I thought: Wow, that might get me off vim -- when I get around to buying a stylus -- there's no way I can work like that with a mouse - my RSI is far to troublesome for that. But for something like a high-precision windows 8/GNU/Linux tablet -- why not?<p>[1] <a href="http://research.swtch.com/acme" rel="nofollow">http://research.swtch.com/acme</a>
The article is right about a lack of vision regarding what kind of software you can run on mobile devices. Android is a subtle and expressive OS. It has yet to see the best software written for it.<p>Enterprise software for mobile devices is not going to be distributed through a retail app store. So the app store model really has little influence on the development of enterprise software for tablets.<p>Enterprise IT, and software vendors, will soon start targeting big-budget development projects at tablets. But that's only part of a big change that's coming. The whole idea of being tethered to a cubicle so you have a work surface on which to put a computer is going to go away. Tablet software is going to be a key element in making that workplace change work. But it will start slowing and experimentally.
Interesting post!<p>Tablets are definitely a new and a separate category. FWIW, there must have been reasons why Steve dismissed smaller tablets (or phablets) earlier... and that seems to be the new type of content that could come by with larger surfaces.<p>Handwriting and doodles?<p>iPad introduces doodles and handwriting very nicely with its immersive experience and ample space to express that way. Mind you it is not about HW recognition, but only real handwriting. Such content wasn't possible or easy enough on pre-PC devices like desktops or even smartphones.<p>Well, that's what we hustlers at Bubbles (<a href="https://bubbleideas.com" rel="nofollow">https://bubbleideas.com</a>) think and are betting on - we're trying to reinvent mails with doodles and handwriting. Also another pointer to share here is that lately note-taking and note-sharing has already moved doodles, so what would be next? :-)<p>[Edits: Additions/subtractions etc.]