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The Worst Startup Idea

48 pointsby joeemisonalmost 12 years ago

17 comments

saosebastiaoalmost 12 years ago
Some ideas are legitimately terrible. But most ideas that are deemed bad are usually ideas that have a bad track record of poor execution.<p>FedEx, up until the point that they succeeded, was a phenomenally bad idea...one that received heaps of ridicule from academics to VCs. Now their hairbrained competitors are the ones that receive the ridicule.<p>Logistics is hard (I work in it), but it has a track record of crazy innovations that sweep the entire world in a matter of years. Think about it: Canals, Railroads, Containerization, The Automobile, Air Parcel Delivery. While I don&#x27;t think an AirBnB for Packages would go anywhere, the idea has at least a semblance of merit: It is a new approach to sortation (probably the biggest problem facing logistics today). A <i>completely distributed sortation system</i>. If this company came packed with a few OpsResearch professionals and a few good lawyers, I would hold off on my ridicule.
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pgalmost 12 years ago
&quot;we skip entirely over the value of working for large, established companies before you create your own.&quot;<p>When I first started writing about startups, I believed this. I suggested that would-be founders work for a couple years for existing companies before trying to start their own. But the empirical evidence changed my opinion. You can learn things from working at an existing company, certainly, but you learn more from trying to start a startup.
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ironic_alialmost 12 years ago
It&#x27;s a while ago now, but I said the million dollar website (the first of many) selling 10 pixels of advertising was a stupid idea and wouldn&#x27;t go anywhere.<p>It&#x27;d sold about $600 when I said this. Unfortunately I said to my flat mate at the time I&#x27;d run round the block naked if it made a million bucks.<p>It was cold that night.
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lancewiggsalmost 12 years ago
I&#x27;ve also been a Start-up weekend judge, and have seen this idea (P2P package transport) in various incarnations. I have three responses:<p>1: For me Startup Weekend is not about creating businesses, rather it is about helping groups of people understand and experience a compressed version of what it is like to start a company. The ideas are often very similar across events (it&#x27;s rare to get anything truly new), but learning about connecting with customers, changing in response to feedback, building something (anything), working as a team and so on and on are valuable lessons. The group is invariably exhausted at the end, but in a good way, and many go on to build or help build something else.<p>2: As a judge I&#x27;ve made it a point for us to give positive feedback to every participant, not just the winners. It&#x27;s an exhausting process being a judge, with back to back pitches and no time between to mull, but we owe it to the participants to understand as much as we can, ask hard questions and also to keep it fun and positive. In the sessions I&#x27;ve been a part of the panel has retired for 20-30 minutes or so, come back and given overall group feedback, positive feedback and key questions to answer for each team and then the winners in reverse order. Plenty for each judge to do in there.<p>3: I agree the idea is flawed as it stands. But then a lot of people thought the FedEx idea was flawed, and we all know countless other stories about crazy ideas that worked. In every crazy idea is often an element of a business, and as a judge or coach or advisor or founder our job is to help identify the bit of the idea that is doable and can be built into a valuable business.
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ginkgotreealmost 12 years ago
I agree with the first conclusion, that this is a bad idea. Yes, AirBNB is able to compete because it is as convenient and provides a similar level of service to regular hotels. However, even as an outsider to the shipping industry, it&#x27;s clear that UPS and FedEX have extremely complex systems to get a package across the country quickly, and reliably. And yes, it is very likely that crowd sourcing ride shares would never be as efficient. Additionally, my experience with receiving packages gives me very little exposure to how the system works. All I know is that I click buy on Amazon, and a box is at my door 3 days later.<p>However, I disagree with the second point, that one NEEDS to work in an industry to understand product&#x2F;market fit. There are plenty of industries that can be studied from a distance. Perfect example being the AirBNB founders. (as far as I know) They did not work in the hotel industry - they merely participated as a customer, hated it, and spent enough time studying to understand it. In addition, staying at a hotel as a customer gives me much more exposure to the system than receiving a package. I check in, I see the maids, I see the food prepared, the room keys, the furniture, etc. Yes, working in an industry will give you an edge, and it may be nearly necessary in some industries (such as shipping, semi-conductors, most physical products), but plenty of founders have built&#x2F;exited successful businesses without working in their market first.
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tptacekalmost 12 years ago
If you squint at it just right, this is exactly the advice Patrick McKenzie has been giving people looking for business ideas on HN for the last several years.
coopdogalmost 12 years ago
I&#x27;ve always thought spreadsheets were a great indicator of B2B startup ideas. Just find a spreadsheet that&#x27;s key to a process that now involves multiple people, hasn&#x27;t changed in a while and is relatively important and you probably have a SAAS right there.<p>The only problem is having the business agree to store data on your servers, something that&#x27;s getting harder and harder these days thanks to the greed of some agencies
robryanalmost 12 years ago
I haven&#x27;t participated in a startup weekend but from following what has come out of our local one &quot;AirBnB for x&quot; does seem the be the most popular starting point.<p>I would agree with the author that the idea is unlikely to hit on something that will actually work, given the way it goes against economies of scale for what essentially be a commodity service.<p>At the same time though, I think it is good that people are exploring these ideas. Sure after a month or 2 (or even just the weekend) they might realise that the idea isn&#x27;t going to fly. In doing that though they may have learned something and stumbled on an even better related opportunity.
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colemorrisonalmost 12 years ago
I&#x27;m not really sure what&#x27;s more prevalent now days... posts that are overtly idealistic and herald a &quot;follow your dreams&quot; mentality or posts that are ridiculously pessimistic and taut the &quot;your idea sucks so give up&quot; dogma.<p>I would never tell a graduate to just go &quot;get a job.&quot; The cultural mindset to build something independently (interdependently might be better wording) is extremely important. The payment and reward of starting a start up transcends that of funding and exit - the god damned fucking journey, experience, relationships, and lessons are rewarding.
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kripyalmost 12 years ago
Reminds me of the underground mail-delivery system, W.A.S.T.E., in Thomas Pynchon&#x27;s &quot;The Crying of Lot 49&quot; (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;The_Crying_of_Lot_49" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;The_Crying_of_Lot_49</a>), which was also the name of a peer-to-peer app developed by Justin Frankel (the original developer of Winamp) while he was at AOL (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;WASTE" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;WASTE</a>).
woahalmost 12 years ago
Is this actually a bad idea? We won&#x27;t know until someone tries it, and deals with the issues. The author&#x27;s attempts at prognostication cloud what is otherwise a well written and perceptive post.
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sharemywinalmost 12 years ago
It&#x27;s funny because Walmart just started offering a service where customers can drop off packages to online customers on the way home.<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.forbes.com&#x2F;sites&#x2F;erikamorphy&#x2F;2013&#x2F;03&#x2F;28&#x2F;about-walmarts-idea-to-crowdsource-its-same-day-delivery-service&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.forbes.com&#x2F;sites&#x2F;erikamorphy&#x2F;2013&#x2F;03&#x2F;28&#x2F;about-wal...</a><p>So some form of it may not be as bad as it sounds. As with every solution it&#x27;s usually about figuring out where it fits in.
the_watcheralmost 12 years ago
Isn&#x27;t this idea just uShip.com? They raised $18mm recently from Kleiner Perkins, although they are pivoting towards competing directly with UHAUL, from what I hear.
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projectileboyalmost 12 years ago
First, I have to echo PG&#x27;s sentiment - the value gained from the experience starting a company will almost always trump the experience gained working for [insert company name here]. Second, it&#x27;s not such an obviously hare-brained scheme, in my opinion - it&#x27;s a packet-switched network, an idea which has had some success in the past.
lostloginalmost 12 years ago
I&#x27;ve never seen any other forum (and very few publications) where members are so up front about potential conflicts of interest or biases. I see it daily, and I like it.
kevingibbonalmost 12 years ago
&quot;This is an awesome service…for transporting drugs&quot; - There can be safeguards put in and doesn&#x27;t seem like this service would even benefit drug dealers. I&#x27;m mr. drug dealer and for some reason I want to trust a chain of 3rd party delivery people with my illegal substances. Not gonna happen.
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michaelochurchalmost 12 years ago
Don&#x27;t get me wrong, I always love VC-istan bashing, but I think the OP has some critical misses in it and, ultimately, comes out with some bad advice.<p><i>If you want to come up with awesome, fundable ideas, go work for large companies with deep pockets that have old and archaic processes and few highly-technical and dynamic problem solvers. Identify the inefficiencies, make friends with decision makers, and then leave, build your solution, and sell it back to them.</i><p>That doesn&#x27;t work. The theory is that these deep-pocketed dinosaurs are just waiting to get some top-1% talent to tackle their hardest problems. It&#x27;s like they&#x27;re sitting on their hands just waiting for smart, energetic people to solve their problems.<p>There are a few issues there. First, the captains of those behemoths think they already <i>have</i> top talent, because they can&#x27;t recognize it, and therefore end up giving their ears to salesmen. Saying, &quot;you should listen to me instead of that idiot, even though I&#x27;m 23, because I am an <i>actual</i> 3-sigma talent&quot; doesn&#x27;t just work that way. Trust me. I&#x27;ve tried it. In an ideal world it would work, but that&#x27;s not where we live.<p>You know how people hate &quot;politicians&quot; in the abstract (recognizing the incompetence of the class) but tend to be favorable toward <i>their</i> local representatives, on account of interpersonal charm? That&#x27;s why investors and owners get robbed blind by idiots and scumbags. <i>We</i> think they just can&#x27;t find people like us; in fact, those owners and investors think they already have people like us (even if they share our skepticism of management&#x2F;executives in the abstract).<p>&quot;Make friends with decision makers&quot;? As if it were that easy. Smart people love to think that the people in power are just waiting for top talent to come and help them; in reality, the people in power think (usually incorrectly, but good luck convincing them of that) that they have more enough access to top talent as it is.<p>Genuine smart people have a hard enough time getting along in the Googles of world, which are still more tolerant of true top talent&#x27;s idiosyncrasies than a typical MegaCorp. Just being smarter than the competition doesn&#x27;t mean you automatically get put on some magical protege track and &quot;make friends with the decision makers&quot; and will be able to &quot;better yet, get the company to invest in your new startup&quot;. Ha! If only it were that easy.<p>What built Silicon Valley back when it was great was a tolerance of people (true top talent, with the career-disrupting idiosyncrasy that implies) whom the current crop of VCs wouldn&#x27;t give the time of day. Silicon Valley was built by people too talented and creative to survive a single year in the corporate culture that now dominates.<p>Okay... so that&#x27;s the critical miss of the OP.<p>Now, onto why shitty ideas get funding, it comes down to this...<p>The clear good ideas (such as nutrition planning for bodybuilders) have two issues. First, they aren&#x27;t that good. They&#x27;re things that obviously add value; that doesn&#x27;t mean they&#x27;re worthwhile businesses. They might not add value in a way that can make sufficient money to cover the costs. Many great ideas don&#x27;t; that&#x27;s why philanthropy and non-profits exist. Second and more importantly, they require some domain expertise (the &quot;golden child&quot; protege of some chicken-hawking VC can&#x27;t run it; you actually need to know something to run the business-- one of the appeals of social media is that, because any idiot can run it, VC funding as a personal favor <i>works</i> in that space, whereas it wouldn&#x27;t in biotech). This also means that those businesses <i>have</i> a well-defined domain, which VCs would denigrate as a &quot;sandbox&quot;. In other words, lifestyle businesses. It will never be a billion-dollar concern, so why fund it? VCs aren&#x27;t really trying to maximize their portfolio returns but their <i>career</i> returns which are tied to visible tokens of social access. Those career-making extreme black swans come once in a decade. It&#x27;s not making a return for investors. It&#x27;s about getting &quot;in on&quot; those once-in-ten-years deals. That&#x27;s why the disgusting culture of co-funding and (almost certainly illegal, and clearly unethical) collusive note-sharing exists.<p>Consequently, VC-istan ends up funding the &quot;who knows?&quot; projects-- not the obvious good ideas (whose maximum yields are usually below beeelll-i-ons) and not the obvious bad ones-- but those that are so vague as to have no obvious maximum. This means they end up funding based on personality cults and &quot;track record&quot; (read: how well someone as peddled influence and credibility in the past) because no one under the sun is capable of assessing these red-ocean gambits.<p>It&#x27;s not that VCs are drawn to terrible startup ideas. It&#x27;s that they&#x27;re drawn for variance for variance&#x27;s sake because the only thing that actually matters to a VC&#x27;s career (i.e. making Partner, then lateral hops all the way to Sequoia) is getting in on those extreme black swans (as I call them, black albatrosses). Funding a good idea that will reliably 5x is useless from a VC&#x27;s career perspective.
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