What I don't get is all the companies actually setting up shop <i>in</i> San Francisco. If I were a tech startup, I'd actually setup shop in a nice area relative to cost of living, then attempt to draw people out.<p>If you can get someone already in SF out to say Boise, Denver, or Phoenix they can make 80% of what they made in SF and have a better lifestyle. If you cover the cost of moving that should make it a very attractive offer. Sell their home in SF (if they own), and buy a nicer/roomier place in the new location.<p>Phoenix in particular has a pretty thriving tech community, and a far better cost of living. The main reason I stay here is the job market is great, and the cost of living is far better, relative to programming pay than most other areas. Of course there is the down side (June, July and August).
In my opinion, this is what will eventually spur a braindrain in SF in 5-10 years.<p>My theory, if it holds, says that a bunch of 20-somethings flooded into SF in the past 2-3 years. When they reach their early/mid-30s, they will begin their nesting phase.<p>They'll want to find/will have found their mate and will want a house with some space.... The chance to finally to get out of their dumpy studio/3-bedroom-with-roommates... Some well-deserved adult digs, after years of hard work in this industry.<p>However, they'll look around at house prices, look back at their bank accounts, and realize such dreams could never be fulfilled here.<p>At that point, they'll pick one of four paths:<p>-Buy property in a remote, suburban sprawl-y part of the Bay Area (an unattractive option to anyone who's lived in SF for many years)<p>-Buy some depressingly expensive one bedroom condo and stay here<p>-Become a lifetime renter<p>-Move away from the Bay Area ('back home', or elsewhere)<p>In my opinion, a 30-something, on the verge of midlife crisis anyways, will take one more shot at the great unknown and set out for a new region, outside the Bay Area.<p>Unless, of course, they sold their startup for 8-figures and escaped with a big chunk of compensation.<p>Thoughts?
Like others have mentioned, the possibility of a brain-drain from SF is a very likely scenario in a few years (if the cost of living stays this shitty). It would be more beneficial if startup land would decide on one of the secondary tech hubs as opposed to everyone going wherever. Having 2 people move to Seattle, 4 of them to Boulder and 3 to Phoenix isn't gonna establish much in either of those. But having 10 people all move to Austin seems like a bigger impact.
Why do people want to live in a foggy, high priced city?
1. Nerdy guys are hit on by women.(Yes--they are that desperate--remember the lack of available guys?) 2. It's
a strict union city--meaning if you get into a union you have a decent living. There's a ton a jobs, but if it's not union expect around 10/hr. If you look good--a chick will take you into her rent controlled apartment. Money/intellect doesn't mater in your 20-30's though--you have to be a Fonzie--in order to get rent controlled girl.<p>Owning a car is like shooting yourself in the foot to stop a robbery, except in a handful of neighborhoods.<p>It's a great town for young men(some of you), but it's horrid for straight women. If you make your fortune
with your start-up, you will move to Marin, and live like
a hermit. Although, your neighbors won't steal from you.<p>Home is really a state of mind. I've seen successful Flat Landers arrive in the Bay Area, and realize they might
have been the popular kid in there town, but in reality
there just a C student--on all levels. They become depressed within a year.<p>If you do decide to live if San Francisco most people assume
you have an advanced degree. They are not impressed by
where you went to school. They are impressed with what
you built in your garage though. If you enjoy working
with you hands, and back, look into local 6 apprenticeship
program. If you become a book 1 dude, you will make $100/hr. If you become book 1, don't turn into an asshole
though. Remember, the only reason you make that money is
because of a liberal Union.
Always worth noting that "this time may be different." Specifically, this trend may or not be the beginnings of a long-term structural move of the world's wealthy from suburbs to urban areas, with world cities like San Francisco, New York, and London becoming luxury dwellings for the 1%. If so, then prices will continue to rise substantially.
This is a tech-heavy community, but the interest of foreign buyers cannot be overlooked in this current market. San Francisco is a world-class city and if you look at overall macro trends of comparable cities (London, New York, Paris, Tokyo, etc), SF is still downright cheap. There will always be a wave or renters in great locations, so if you have the cash SF real estate is a good place to park it.
It seems hard to extrapolate a long-term boom-bust cycle from those graphs. SF may be more sensitive to national trends, but I only see two clear busts, and one was 2008, during which housing markets collapsed almost everywhere. The earlier one coincides with the 2001 downturn and dot-com bust. You'd probably see echoes of those busts in plenty of other housing markets.
When I see more significant venture capitalists in Portland (or SF VCs willing to invest in Portland based startups), I'd move within days.<p>-- Software Engineer in SF