I did something very much like this for a few years. Ultimately though it's only as good as your inputs and your inputs aren't very good (as noted in the article).<p>On top of that the cumulative probability gets really bad because the predicted spread is never very high. The best you'll see is around 60-70%. .7 ^ 10 = .028, so while your expected value may well be positive if everyone else is using a poor strategy, your overall probability of winning is still low. At least in leagues with a lot of players (the one I was in had over 10,000).