So apparently through age 50 each person is supposed to give the health insurance corporations nearly a quarter million dollars.<p>I consider myself progressive and this is the most asinine solution I've ever seen.<p>Instead of fixing health care costs we are going to make more billionaire CEOs.
As I understand it, the true costs will be when employers potentially drop your heath-care coverage and make you temp worker.<p>Given that most people reading HN are employed in areas with high demand, this will probably not happen to you, but it could happen to those that are employed in jobs where there is a more ample pool of workers to draw from.<p>Sadly, it's hard to calculate the chances of this situation happening - so we'll all probably just have to wait and see.
The most important thing to note about this calculator is that it's based on CBO <i>estimates</i>, not actual insurance plans:<p>"Premiums in the calculator are illustrative examples in 2014 dollars derived from estimates of average premiums for 2016 from the Congressional Budget Office." [1]<p>And apparently, 94% of uninsured Americans will have premiums that are less than projected [2].<p>Even with those caveats, my costs are estimated to go down. This is very good news for me, as someone with individual insurance, because health costs are the dominating factor in my budget.<p>[1] Second paragraph of the "Notes" section under the calculator's results.<p>[2] <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/09/25/obamacare_premiums_will_be_cheaper_than_the_cbo_projected.html?wpisrc=burger_bar" rel="nofollow">http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/09/25/obamacare_pre...</a>
Those in the bay area can try the Covered California calculator, which gives more details on the actual plans that will be available:<p><a href="http://www.coveredca.com/shopandcompare/#calculator" rel="nofollow">http://www.coveredca.com/shopandcompare/#calculator</a><p>As I am currently self-employed, these plans make insurance a LOT more affordable for me.
Obama Care "costs" more than their calculator because the "$100 a month plan for those making under $50k" cost $1,200 but doesn't give the plan holder anything until they incur $10k in expenses.<p>Basically you Lose $1,200 that you could have spent on healthcare. That $1,200 is a lot when you consider that many of the people with out healthcare end up at the Emergency Room for simple things like Strep Throat and end up paying $500 instead of $80 for a doctor's visit.<p>The best analogy I can think is like the Poor who opt to be unbanked. Many of the unbanked do so because the fees in banking are greater than what the fees are at the Check cashing places because a single overdraft charge.<p>Obama care is really just bankruptcy insurance, and that is kind of what bankruptcy is a way to not lose everything if you can't afford it.
Either there's a bug in the calculator or the pricing tier is completely senseless. (sorry for the long link, it has all the parameters included)<p><a href="http://kff.org/interactive/subsidy-calculator/#state=nc&zip=27705&locale=Durham&income-type=dollars&income=5000&employer-coverage=0&people=1&adult-count=2&adults%5B0%5D%5Bage%5D=42&adults%5B0%5D%5Btobacco%5D=0&adults%5B1%5D%5Bage%5D=44&adults%5B1%5D%5Btobacco%5D=0&child-count=0&child-tobacco=0" rel="nofollow">http://kff.org/interactive/subsidy-calculator/#state=nc&zip=...</a><p>Two adults living in NC and making $5,000/yr are expected to pay an annual premium of $6,901, which is 138.02% of their annual income! What!?
This is what I think will happen: 1% of uninsured will jump through all the hoops and apply for a subsidy (which is more complicated and more expensive than just picking up the phone and calling BCBS for a high-deductible plan.) 9% of uninsured will finally get insurance to avoid the $500 IRS fine. 90% will do nothing and get a $500 fine from the IRS. 5% of those people will pay the $500 fine which is cheaper than buying insurance. 45% of them will throw the bill in the trash, assuming the IRS knows where they live/work. The other 50% will raise hell they are not paying $500 to the IRS, Obama will feel like a bully and Obamacare will be history.<p>If I have it totally wrong, don't just downvote, please explain why. I really don't know if the IRS fine will be $500, that's just a number I heard thrown around last year. A $500 fine is less than half the cost a cheap insurance plan for one person, and much cheaper if you have a family. If you're living paycheck to paycheck, a possible $500 fine (that's not even a reality yet) is much less pain than buying insurance right now. My percentage estimates are off the top of my head (not scientific) but I heard 1/3 Americans don't file tax returns so that figured into my estimates. And remember we're talking about uninsured people, I'm thinking a large percentage of them are just getting by.
What legally counts as "tobacco usage"?<p>Sure, if you smoke a pack a day. What if you just have a couple of cigarettes when you go out, a couple nights a week? What about once a month? If you smoke a cigar when your baby's born?<p>Unlike the other categories, "tobacco use" doesn't make a lot of sense... and out of all the dangerous, life-threatening activities you can partake in, why is only this one singled out? Why not change premiums based on BMI too? It's kind of bizarre.
It is interesting that the subsidies are based on your Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI). A nice example of tax code naming conventions: it is both Modified and Adjusted! One of the items you deduct from your income to get your MAGI is self employed insurance premiums.<p>I am curious how this will work in practice for the self employed...it seems a bit recursive. My premiums paid will be influenced by how big of a subsidy I get, and the subsidy calculation depends on MAGI which is influenced by the total of my health insurance premium payments.<p>Is there a class of the donut hole problem where you forecast that you will pay enough in premiums to get your MAGI down to qualify for a subsidy, but that subsidy reduces your actual paid premiums and now you no longer have a MAGI low enough to get the subsidy? Maybe I need to spreadsheet this and it isn't such a trap, or maybe the MAGI deduction is based on the gross premium with the subsidy being a separate credit. Also bear in mind that the whole thing gets trued up when you file your 2014 taxes with your actual (rather than projected) MAGI.
Something I've been wondering: I've got a pretty fair amount of savings. Suppose I go on sabbatical for a year to do a startup, spruce up my github, whatever. For the sake of argument say I don't have COBRA.<p>Everything I've read talks about income, not net worth. If I'm not making income, am I stuck with Medicaid, even though I have a decent net worth? Or if I do a little consulting and make $20K, do I get subsidies on the exchange, even though I really don't need them?
As a European (Dutch to be exact) that has put up with a very similar universal healthcare, the numbers are actually about the same for me - based on income, I get about the same amount of tax credit here. I'm guessing the conditions of said insurance will be different - no deductible is mentioned for example, while the Netherlands has a 350 euro required deductible.
The number that came up is the cheapest health insurance ever, man. Who could possibly complain about that. It is like 5% of my income unless something went wrong in the calculation.