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Predicted market correct last 13 days in row

3 pointsby dynofuzover 11 years ago

3 comments

joezydecoover 11 years ago
It&#x27;s the old stock scam! Someone needs to create 2048 twitter accounts (AAPL0001, AAPL0002, etc), then make half say &quot;AAPL closes UP today!&quot;, the other half say &quot;Down&quot;.<p>Delete the incorrect accounts the next day and repeat for the next 7 days... You&#x27;ll have one account left at the end, but it&#x27;ll be exactly right.
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hannibal5over 11 years ago
One way to put things in perspective is to compare against predictor that always chooses the most frequent label (higher in this case).<p>dynofuz made 14 predictions, 13 correct (at least they claim so) and their predictor agrees with majority label predictor 10&#x2F;14 = 71% of the time. The difference is just 3 correct predictions.<p>correction: 13 predictions, 10&#x2F;13 = 77% same as majority label predictor.
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jeanjqover 11 years ago
What&#x27;s the probability of correctly predicting HIGHER&#x2F;LOWER 13 days in a row?<p>(1&#x2F;2)^13 = 1&#x2F;8192