Is this survivor bias?<p>I mean, there are thousands of handicappers, or bettors, who employ "scientific methods" and "mathematical models" to try to win at betting. But only a few succeed. And the successful ones will get featured in wsj and news media. Why we should attribute Bob's success to skills, rather then luck?
Stoll's website says he's 56% lifetime record on football "best bets" and 54% accuracy on "strong opinions". (The article omits this and just shows a chart with some unusually strong years.) The article says:<p>> Gamblers wagering against a point spread must win more than half their bets (about 53%) to make a profit and must be closer to 55% to make a comfortable living.<p>So even if we accept everything we're being told, he's only barely ahead.
When I was studying in Zurich, I also met someone who created a similar program:
<a href="http://www.rogerkaufmann.ch/dsa.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.rogerkaufmann.ch/dsa.htm</a><p>He never tried to make any money out of it though, and never shared the informations with anyone.