Wow, talk about forward looking statements. When companies start making comments like this, it's evidence of a loss of rationality. If MySpace had said this 4 years ago, they would have gotten press too and everyone would have believed it and it <i>could</i> have been possible.<p>But seriously folks, look around. The unpredictability of the internet is just too high to be making statements like this, I don't care how much evidence you have.<p><i>Andreessen told Reuters that the world's most popular online social network could pile up $1 billion in revenue this year if it pushed harder on selling advertising.</i><p>Seriously? Like how much harder? Putting more ads on the site? Charging more for them?<p>This is bubble talk if ever I heard it. He wants to get press for his new investment fund. He has to say big things so that people talk and want to give him money and want him to invest in their companies. So transparent.<p>They say: <i>[Twitter] needs to focus on increasing its number of users and improve the features it offers so that no rival can swoop in.</i><p>Oh boy. Really? So no rival can swoop in? The more Twitter develops its features, the easier it is for a rival to swoop in. Just copy them. It really isn't that hard. Facebook could copy them. Google could copy them. Lots of people think Wave is a more advanced twitter already.<p>And then he says this: <i>MySpace focused too much on selling advertisements</i><p>Isn't that exactly how he said Facebook could be making billions? So really what he is saying is, "If facebook sold more ads, they'd make more money, but then they'd lose their users, so they wouldn't make money, so really, facebook can't make much more money."<p>Read between the lines and you'll see that the whole scheme is faulty.
Well, I'll bet Marc Andreesen $100 that facebook will <i>not</i> make multiple billions of dollars in 5 years.<p>2008: $210 million, 2009: $230 million. Extrapolating wildly maybe 600 million, but they'd have to <i>double</i> their revenue increase for that to work (10% / annum to 20% per annum). I fail to see what magic they're going to pull in order to make that happen.<p>Also, revenue definitely isn't profit, look at youtube.
I somehow believe according to personal value of Facebook (read none) that it's aiming for its peak. It is a time waster in the time where constructivism is a necessity to overcome all present issues. Just take a look at the feeds, it seems to me that it is social gossiping and social gaming rather than anything to do with friends. As (an older) student, I can see the trend that most students are falling in the already mentioned time wasting. Those that graduated though, I don't even see them on Facebook, they are busy doing something, working, building and using their time with physical friends and family.<p>Facebook's crowd will always be difficult to monetize. I am already pissed of by the banners I see around (never ever clicked one), so the only reason I go there is to notify people of something from time to time. It really has taken the functionality of an Address book, and hell it is annoying climbing up that www for a small piece of information. The board of Facebook says that if they placed more ads they could start earning a lot. I say if they do that, I am a goner same moment. Same if they try to sell me something.<p>Valuing Facebook in 5 years? Ridiculous. I doubt it will even exist in 5 years in the form of today. I see a major shift in computing coming up in the next few years, and Facebook and Google and all those disconnected clusters of multiple identities merged.<p>Value of Facebook currently is (-) minus all the money they've spent. I doubt they will ever compensate for that. Investing in Facebook though is a good scheme to launder money.<p>I also see the next bubble. Overestimation and over-expectations of "startups" and websites that will never create value. I see a clear shift to desktop computing again away from the ill-responsive web.
They'll have a serious growth problem with the number of 30+ aged folks jumping on the site right now. In 5 years, when the 8 year olds of the world turn 13 and start looking for social networks to join - I have a feeling they aren't going to use the one old mom and dad are using. They better start now focusing on us older folks so we keep spurring growth.