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Amazon Wants to Ship Your Package Before You Buy It

135 pointsby canistrover 11 years ago

42 comments

joezydecoover 11 years ago
A friend of mine works for a large battery company. The moment the hurricane forecast shows one headed for a populated area they start packing and dispatching semis of AA/C/D/9V batteries to all the Walmarts, Targets, Grocery Stores, etc in that area. I'm sure the bottled water and plywood manufacturers do the same. How does this differ?
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frogpeltover 11 years ago
Walmart already does this.<p>They keep everything on shelves at the local fulfillment center. I go there maybe once every two weeks and pickup my stuff.<p>It&#x27;s a pretty neat concept called retail.
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wiredfoolover 11 years ago
This is a patent for turning UPS and Fedex distribution centers into warehouses. They&#x27;re preloading the distribution system so that the only latency is the last tens of miles, rather than hundreds or thousands. It could be same day assuming you got your order in before 4am or whenever the trucks roll. Or even later if they have a more courrier oriented partner.
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mpclarkover 11 years ago
We could call these local hubs &quot;shops&quot;
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stiffover 11 years ago
Uhm, operations research is what, at least 75 years old now? And this is exactly classical operations research stuff, at least the idea is nothing new:<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operations_research#History" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Operations_research#History</a><p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_chain_management" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Supply_chain_management</a><p>I guess they just patented a particular way of doing this.
alexeisadeski3over 11 years ago
Satire becomes reality.<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HA_gwzx39LQ" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=HA_gwzx39LQ</a>
wavefunctionover 11 years ago
It&#x27;s almost like Amazon is recreating the local retail experience, except that all the mom and pops are owned a monolithic entity with no ties to your community and you can&#x27;t actually check out the products before you buy.<p>I&#x27;m heavily opposed to winner-take-all and so my boycott of Amazon books must continue. I don&#x27;t really buy anything other than physical books off of Amazon, so it&#x27;s not a huge sacrifice.
jstalinover 11 years ago
Kinda cool. I can imagine a day when, due to &quot;pre-shipping,&quot; one could look at their wishlist and see an alert: &quot;Receive this product today!&quot;
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basseqover 11 years ago
I imagine transportation costs could quickly spiral out of control if you didn&#x27;t have the analytics tuned correctly. But one particular use case comes to mind: you look at a couple items, maybe even add them to you cart, then walk away. A lot of retailers now will send you an email for &quot;abandoned carts&quot;—imagine if that email also included a line that said, &quot;Oh, and if you finish your order, we&#x27;ll have it on your doorstep tomorrow.&quot; Pretty compelling.
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tannercover 11 years ago
Patents != products. Just look at the countless patents Apple has filed over the years. Many never see the light of day.<p>Though I suspect Amazon isn&#x27;t filing this patent as a means to control the concept (isn&#x27;t it even that revolutionary that it needs protecting?).
taybinover 11 years ago
They got a patent for this? &quot;People in this city order this book more often than other cities. Okay, let&#x27;s make a deal with our shipper there to stock some onsite.&quot;<p>Totally obvious.
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normlomanover 11 years ago
Amazon Wants to Suck Money Out Of Your Pocket Through a Hose (wsj.com)
excellence24over 11 years ago
&quot;anticipatory shipping&quot;, this is pretty much just saying that local warehouses&#x2F;stores should anticipate demand by using as much data as possible. For Amazon that means wishlists, viewing history, shopping carts, emails etc. This is good Jeff Bezos, but not good enough. I could do this better.<p>In order to best anticipate demand, they should be trying to make deals with manufactures instead. This system would initially work best with subscription based products. And then we could figure out how to turn everything into a type of subscription.<p>Manufactures have a release cycle that is important to them staying &#x27;competitive&#x27;. So they have to constantly make new models and &#x27;retire&#x27; the old ones by planned obsolescence forcing us to buy the new slightly improved model that has a time bomb built in it to go off when the next model comes out.<p>So basically Amazon needs to place their customers in a &#x27;release preference&#x27; category. With names like, &#x27;bleeding-edge&#x27;,&#x27;beta&#x27;,&#x27;stable&#x27;,&#x27;2 generations back&#x27;, or &#x27;annually&#x2F;biannually&#x27;. This could make manufactures more responsible and get the latest designs out of secret labs and into consumers hands quicker.<p>Customers can choose which category they want to be included in for different product families. So for example, I might choose the &#x27;bleeding-edge&#x27; release cycle for my phone, but prefer a biannual subscription for a refrigerator or car.<p>And unless someone has a brand preference, the best products can be automatically chosen based on reviews from amazon and social networks and blogs and benchmarks on hardware&#x2F;battery life&#x2F;speed&#x2F;etc<p>Discounts will be given for recycling your previous models, and as our 3d printing becomes better and closer to home, eventually we might just get &#x27;ink&#x27; credits to print out phones, computers, cars, furniture, TV&#x27;s etc.<p>On a side note, this kind of system would be the system of all systems and it would be hard for competitors to start (without the data owned by Amazon). So I don&#x27;t think &#x27;Amazon&#x27; should get to boast and claim this system as their own and keep the profits. I would like to see this type of system organized at the national level at first (until we fully embrace globalization) and we could vote on an open source &#x27;shopping and distribution&#x27; system whose profits go back directly to the people in the countries they operate. Then people could join and accept a national system to be proud of, one whose contributors, ideas,transactions,money,etc are all open and viewable by anyone to encourage accountability.
smackfuover 11 years ago
Wait, this is just a patent, and Amazon didn&#x27;t even respond when asked for comments. This is a junk invented story. Bravo WSJ.
r0h1nover 11 years ago
&gt;&gt; The patent exemplifies a growing trend among technology and consumer firms to anticipate consumers’ needs, even before consumers do.<p>Wrong. The patent exemplifies a growing trend among technology and consumer firms to think their business processes ought to be protected by patents when in fact, no such need exists. Certainly there is no wider (public, society, industry) good from allowing rich companies to patent something many others may have easily figured out independently.
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shittyanalogyover 11 years ago
Here&#x27;s the abstract:<p><i>A method and system for anticipatory package shipping are disclosed. According to one embodiment, a method may include packaging one or more items as a package for eventual shipment to a delivery address, selecting a destination geographical area to which to ship the package, shipping the package to the destination geographical area without completely specifying the delivery address at time of shipment, and while the package is in transit, completely specifying the delivery address for the package.</i><p>As long as you consider being at the store &quot;in transit&quot; they&#x27;ve effectively &quot;invented&quot; physical stores with a digital only interface. The patent even describes a method of giving customers in the region discounts on products that don&#x27;t sell and are sitting in the &quot;store&quot;.<p>There is nothing novel or new about this and the patent system is broken for more than just software. The entire rest of the patent is a bunch of filler to make it seem like there&#x27;s something important going on when there in fact is not.
falsestprophetover 11 years ago
Building warehouses closer to customers isn&#x27;t that far off &quot;anticipatory shipping.&quot; Could &quot;anticipatory shipping&quot; be a clever scheme to reduce shipping times while also avoiding establishing tax nexuses (and therefore avoiding the requirement to collect sales taxes) in additional states?
Johnieover 11 years ago
This is effectively a CDN for real physical products. Push the product to the edge nodes for shorter delivery time.
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thejteamover 11 years ago
Perhaps I&#x27;m wrong, but I thought Netflix already did this with their DVDs. They would see that certain DVDs were near the top of the queue in certain areas and move the DVDs closer. Works especially well with more rare items.
lovemenotover 11 years ago
It may pressure consumers to decide to buy now, if they get visibility on a desirable product approaching closer to them in delivery time. Especially if they are also aware that the approaching product may be snapped up by a rival local consumer with similar tastes. Game theory applies. And this will also be gamed by customers who understand Amazon&#x27;s cost and incentive economics. Smart move though, as it can focus customer awareness into their distribution chain which is locked-in. Attention shifts from logical: ProductX() to instantiated: new ProductX(Amazon_supply_chain).
fnordfnordfnordover 11 years ago
This will work great for things that people &quot;subscribe&quot; to like toilet paper and dog food, which, I kid you not, is cheaper via Amazon than locally, and, someone else lugs it to my house for me.
existentialmuttover 11 years ago
&quot;So Amazon says it may box and ship products it expects customers in a specific area will want – based on previous orders and other factors — but haven’t yet ordered. According to the patent, the packages could wait at the shippers’ hubs or on trucks until an order arrives.&quot;<p>Here&#x27;s an idea. Pre-ship merchandise to local independent retail locations, waive the shipping fee but let the retailer mark it up a bit, and offer in-store pickup.<p>It&#x27;s a proven business model, since that&#x27;s how people bought stuff before catalogs and the internet.
alok-gover 11 years ago
This is not shipping before you buy. This is online interface for a brick-and-mortar store (such that many overheads of traditional stores are gone). Call it a distributed warehouse if you like.<p>Patents Office got fooled into seeing this as an invention. The violation could happen only if they could predict what I specifically want to buy and ship it for me specifically. If all they do is optimise distribution, well that&#x27;s happening since the dawn of trade may I guess.
kyydover 11 years ago
Why do they need a patent for this?
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narfquatover 11 years ago
So does that mean someday I will be able to call in a same-day airdrop of semi-uncommon product x that has been sitting in my amazon shopping cart or wishlist?
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mnordhoffover 11 years ago
&#x27;“It appears Amazon is taking advantage of their copious data,” said Sucharita Mulpuru, a Forrester Research [FORR -2.03%] analyst. “Based on all the things they know about their customers they could predict demand based on a variety of factors.”&#x27;<p>Something about seeing a big red box next to the analyst highlighting their company&#x27;s negative stock performance makes me a wee bit less confident in their analysis.
jhwhiteover 11 years ago
This definitely makes sense for their subscribe and save items. If they&#x27;re not doing it already for them. But I don&#x27;t think they are. I&#x27;ve got quite a few things on subscribe and save, I get charged the last day of the month and it still takes about a week to get my items.
jiggy2011over 11 years ago
This makes sense, especially if combined with a local retail channel. It would be neat to be able to travel somewhere and get hooked on some obscure local food&#x2F;drink and come back home to find that you&#x27;re local shop now has it in stock automatically.
raverbashingover 11 years ago
I could see this working.<p>For example, the 7th Harry Potter book, especially if you ordered previous books with Amazon.<p>Or some videogame series, or something similar. Still, for these there&#x27;s a &quot;pre-order&quot; period, so preshiping without a preorder is kind of moot
frandroidover 11 years ago
So Amazon would basically fill an actual shopping cart with your current order at a hub close to you, and when you&#x27;re done paying, would just come out of the neighbour&#x27;s driveway and wheel the cart to your door...
mhbover 11 years ago
Think of the millions who will succumb to akinetic mutism[1]. Oh the humanity.<p>1. <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7067573" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=7067573</a>
mlashcorpover 11 years ago
I actually find this clever and patentable. It&#x27;s machine learning assisted caching for physical packages. Now it all comes down to the predictive performance of their algorithms.
Aqueousover 11 years ago
So if you ship something you thought I was going to buy but don&#x27;t, do I still have to pay for it when it arrives? Because I&#x27;m fucking keeping it.
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mooover 11 years ago
I&#x27;ve never bought the same thing twice from Amazon. I think this is publicity&#x2F;advertising like the helicopter drone story.
ryanmcbrideover 11 years ago
If this means that they would start fronting the cost of importing all my weird Japanese SFC games then I&#x27;m all for it.
mrbillover 11 years ago
Surely I&#x27;m not the only one that kept checking to see that the date on this article wasn&#x27;t April 1st.
sturmehover 11 years ago
Better yet, send packages by drone and return them if the user hasn&#x27;t purchased it yet. D:
rawsover 11 years ago
&quot;... in your garden&#x2F;on your balcony, while you&#x27;re away at work.&quot;
Zikesover 11 years ago
&gt; Of course, Amazon’s algorithms might sometimes err, prompting costly returns.<p>If I keep getting boxes on my doorstep that I didn&#x27;t order, I don&#x27;t think Amazon should expect me to keep sending them back.<p>I&#x27;m not turning my front porch into an Amazon micro-warehouse.
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optymizer1over 11 years ago
So.. it&#x27;s like prefetching.
Toucheover 11 years ago
AOT delivery, excellent.
coldcodeover 11 years ago
Kind of like pre-crime.
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