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An impending black swan for electric cars

39 pointsby egbabout 11 years ago

18 comments

revelationabout 11 years ago
Such a great buildup, only to completely miss the point. The adoption of computers at a large-scale didn&#x27;t happen through some magic invention and science breakthrough right before the &quot;revolution&quot;. The magic part was the invention of the transistor, everything after that was diligent and relentless steady work to morph it into an affordable piece of consumer gear.<p>That&#x27;s exactly what the battery factory will do. That is what Tesla is doing: they are going the long way, not dismissing the technology while waiting for a black swan to appear at the end of a rainbow that will save them. Because there won&#x27;t be one.
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kylecabout 11 years ago
<p><pre><code> A $95K Tesla Model S has plenty of range to qualify as a single car solution but it just costs too darned much money. </code></pre> Even assuming I can get the advertised 265 miles from the Tesla, it&#x27;s still too short, especially considering the long recharge times and the rarity of the supercharging stations. My parents are a 4-hour car drive away, and I probably drive up and visit them a half a dozen times per year. I wouldn&#x27;t want to have to give that up, or to have to arrange alternate transportation. (There are no superchargers along the route, and even if there were I still wouldn&#x27;t want to have to add an additional 30-45 minutes each way)<p>Maybe this is an edge case, but I suspect that a non-trivial number of people have edge cases like these. An electric car might serve well as an everyday vehicle, but it can&#x27;t truly be a single-car solution at the current time.<p>The article does mention a hypothetical battery that&#x27;s twice the capacity and 10x the recharge rate. If that comes out, and if there is a significant buildout in the supercharger network, I could probably switch. However, battery technology has never increased at an exponential rate, and I suspect that it will be a lot longer than 2 years before we see cars that have those properties.
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rdlabout 11 years ago
Right...because we haven&#x27;t wanted better batteries for the past 30+ years, and it&#x27;s just our lack of desire which is keeping it from happening.<p>SpaceX didn&#x27;t do any new <i>science</i> in building their rockets, really. They took functional technology and a lot of great engineering and made it work. I don&#x27;t think it would be responsible to bet Tesla&#x27;s success on a battery technology which doesn&#x27;t exist yet; 50% cheaper Lithium-Ion through Tesla&#x2F;SpaceX style vertical integration and awesomeness is good enough.<p>If better battery chemistries come out, then sure Tesla could use them, but the planning for the next car needs to work even if they don&#x27;t.
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bicknergsengabout 11 years ago
&quot;The better approach would be to abandon lithium-ion for a superior battery technology.&quot;<p>There have been dozens or hundreds or thousands of companies and teams and people working on alternatives to li-ion for 20 years. We&#x27;re arguably not much closer to a &quot;breakthrough&quot; in energy storage. I&#x27;m mildly convinced saying 10x batteries are around the corner is analogous to saying a universal cure for AIDS is coming next week. Maybe it is, maybe it isn&#x27;t, but I can pretty much promise you that no company is going to get that tech, design, produce, scale, and sell enough cars a month from now to be a &quot;black swan&quot; for Tesla.
pkulakabout 11 years ago
I agree. It&#x27;s closer than a lot of people think. It&#x27;s hard to describe an electric car driving experience, but the best way is to say that the accelerator is exactly the opposite of the brake. In that, the more you push it, the more force pushes you into the back of your seat, exactly proportional and instant at all times. There&#x27;s no lurching from downshifts, or waiting for RPMs for climb, then fall off, then downshift.<p>It&#x27;s a neat experience, and everyone I know prefers it, but it&#x27;s too damn expensive to get it. I don&#x27;t think for long, though. And I don&#x27;t think it&#x27;s going to take some great battery breakthrough either. I&#x27;d say you need about 50 kWh in a sedan, minimum, for it to work well for trips (plus a bit of charging infrastructure). If you want to sell a car for $40,000 (which would be $33,000 after rebates, less in California), that means you probably can&#x27;t have a pack that costs more than $20,000 (since you can buy a decent gas car for that, and that&#x27;s before you remove all the gassy bits).<p>So, $20,000 for a 50 kWh pack == $400 per kWh, which is totally doable. I think when the Leaf first came out, the estimates were that it cost Nissan about $500 per kWh, but if they don&#x27;t have it down below $400 by now I&#x27;ll eat my hat. And Tesla probably already has the cost below $300, what with using commodity cells. I think they only reason Tesla doesn&#x27;t put out a $40,000 sedan is because they know the demand would outstrip their battery supply by a factor of 200 (and murder demand for the Model S), so they have to wait until they build their own factory.<p>But! Nissan already has their own battery factory. Their batteries are not nearly as energy-dense as Teslas, so fitting 50 kWh worth in the Leaf may be their biggest issue right now. But there&#x27;s a lot of wasted space in that car. I think they can do it just fine. And when they do, if gas has just tipped north of $4 by then, they are going to make a lot of noise.<p>They sent me a survey a couple months ago, and one of the questions asked how much extra I&#x27;d pay for EPA-rated 150 miles range (instead of the current 75). I was about to drag the little slider up to about $12,000, but it stopped at $5,000 (or $208 per kWh). That may just be a random question with no basis on their current engineering, but I think they&#x27;re up to something.
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sukuriantabout 11 years ago
I have to concur with this article. I was musing about what kind of electric car I would want if I had tons and tons of money. It wasn&#x27;t a Tesla S, sadly. As much as I love Teslas and think they&#x27;re amazing and awesome cars, they also say &quot;I have money&quot; quite loudly. No, I want similar range and performance, except in a sleeper car. There&#x27;s 2 alternatives: the Leaf and the Chevy Volt, from my research.<p>The Leaf is a very ugly car, to me, for a young man (though I do know people who pull it off perfectly).<p>The Volt is almost there, except that its range on battery is about 40 miles (afterward it switches to gas, which defeats my idea). I want a car that can go 140+ (preferably 300+) on a single charge (or have super-fast, and still infrequent, charges) that I can charge at night, and has the prestige of anything less than or equal to a BMW.<p>There is a particular beauty, to me, in the idea of plugging in my vehicle at night and, the next day, having a new 300ish mile range to be able to use. It&#x27;s has a beautiful feel to it. The inconvenience of getting gas, gone forever, and replaced by a considerable reduction in price. I love it.<p>The day that comes, be it in a Tesla family sedan or in a Leaf or BMW electric car or whatever other company ends up making the &gt;= 50k, I will seriously consider and even actively decide that I no longer need a gasoline powered car as my everyday commuter and city and nearby attraction car.
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ksecabout 11 years ago
Oh, God.... 1. Telsa isn&#x27;t building the Factory themselves. It actually Panasonic, which is currently the sole producer for Telsa Motor&#x27;s battery, are PLANNING to build a Giant factory in partnership with Telsa.<p>2.Mass Manufacturing will bring down battery cost? No, Batteries are ALREADY being mass manufactured, and the margin on batteries are thin. very thin.<p>3.As much as everyone like Telsa and likes to fantasize the idea. Telsa are NO expect in battery technology. Panasonic, Sony are.<p>4. Batteries, due to the possible explosive nature, require a hell a lot of safety testing before it could be put to use. So basically any new battery invention you read now wont come into consumers hand for at least about 3-4 years. And that is already a unrealistic assumption of everything going straight forward and smoothly.<p>5. So no new battery tech coming. How about Lithium-ion? Well i can assure you Panasonic has been pushing this tech and incremental improvement are still on the roadmap. Just not the big 2 - 3 x improvement you would expect.<p>6. Lithium, as it stands today, isn&#x27;t (yet) a variable solution to EV. A lot of articles will claim it is abundance, but that is the same as Hydrogen. It is the process is getting it. The largest Lithium reserve in the world, in Bolivia, while enough to sustain the EV uses, isn&#x27;t producing any Lithium simply because the cost of extraction is multiple times higher.<p>That is why many producers like Toyota, and Nissan, or even GM say EV isn&#x27;t a variable alternative yet. Not because they are paid by Oil Salesman as much as you want to believe. They love alternative energy as well, be it Hydrogen or Battery Powered Cars. It is the current battery isn&#x27;t up to it. And even the expert in the battery field dont have anything in sight they could look forward to.
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magic_hazeabout 11 years ago
What happened to the Hydrogen option? A few years ago, everybody was talking about how it would be the best possible fuel and how much better than batteries it is, but I haven&#x27;t heard much about it after.<p>From a distribution point of view, it seems like both batteries and hydrogen are pretty much equally bad. Is there something holding back the powertrain technology with hydrogen?
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bigbossmanabout 11 years ago
This isn&#x27;t a black swan. Cringely is using the term incorrectly.
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beatabout 11 years ago
The biggest problem imho is the supercharging stations required for fast charging turnarounds. Charging a 50kwh battery in an hour requires more than 50kw of power. That&#x27;s a very dangerous level of voltage and current (roughly the power of a good-sized radio station&#x27;s antenna), enough to kill from a distance if the slightest thing goes wrong.<p>Maybe we&#x27;ll have really safe, highly standardized supercharging stations. I hope so. But it&#x27;s a Hard Problem.<p>edit: The next-gen Tesla supercharger stations will be 120kw. I don&#x27;t think those can be free forever, although they&#x27;re free to premium-paying Tesla customers now.
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arjnabout 11 years ago
Silly article, I wish I hadn&#x27;t wasted time reading it.<p>Strangely, the author thinks it&#x27;s an incredible prediction that electric cars and their associated energy-storage technologies will eventually get better, easier to manufacture and cheaper to own. That a point will be reached where the economics make sense for the middle class to start buying such vehicles.<p>&quot;Black Swan&quot;. Really ?!
SixSigmaabout 11 years ago
Impending ? My local ASDA (Wal-Mart) has had electric car charging points for a year now. There are about 50 such equipped ASDA stores throughout the UK. Looking at the map, they are less than 50 miles apart and many of them open 24hrs.<p><a href="http://your.asda.com/news-and-blogs/electric-car-drivers-can-now-charge-up-at-asda" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;your.asda.com&#x2F;news-and-blogs&#x2F;electric-car-drivers-can...</a><p>Formula 1 is quite popular in the UK and that sport now has hybrid engine technology with 160 horse power of electric motor waiting at the press of a button, charged by the kinetic harvesting of the vehicle and the turbo powered 1.6 litre petrol engine. They complete the 200 mile race with only 130 litres of fuel.<p>Electric cars are here and in the public eye.<p><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/25158104" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bbc.co.uk&#x2F;sport&#x2F;0&#x2F;formula1&#x2F;25158104</a>
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Mzabout 11 years ago
I wonder what role rising oil prices play in this. I mean, it isn&#x27;t just a matter of &quot;electric needs to be cheaper.&quot; It needs to be cheaper&#x2F;more viable in some way than the widely available alternative which is currently gasoline. As gas goes up, shouldn&#x27;t those lines cross sooner rather than later?
derekp7about 11 years ago
If battery tech doesn&#x27;t improve on the price any time soon, I&#x27;d like to see a slightly different financing option. I&#x27;d like to buy (or lease) the car, and then lease the battery pack separately, so you pay for it by the charge. Currently, it cost about $6 to &quot;fill up&quot; a 300-mile range battery, vs. $50-$70 for gas. So as long as the electric cost plus battery lease per charge costs than the cost of a tank of gas, I believe that would go a long way to solving the up-front vehicle cost issues.
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ZenoArrowabout 11 years ago
This is such a lazy article. The central premise is we&#x27;re due a big breakthrough in battery technology in the next few years because there are many groups working on it. Using the same logic you could say we can expect a big breakthrough in cancer treatment in a similar time frame.<p>There are promising battery technologies being worked on, but there tends to be a big difference between lab research and what makes it as a viable product. Let&#x27;s make the most of what we have now instead of waiting for a magic bullet.
trhwayabout 11 years ago
the way for electric cars to get higher range and lower cost is obviously battery improvement. The metal-air (specifically zinc&#x2F;air and Al&#x2F;air) batteries sound like a natural way of doing so. These batteries can be thought as fuel cells &quot;burning&quot; zinc(or Al) instead of gasoline. Having lower cost and size than Li-ion they would be also good candidates for battery swapping stations. If only we as society were able to build such an infrastructure...
poweraabout 11 years ago
&quot;With dozens of groups working on the problem and an eventual market worth probably $1 trillion I have no doubt there will be a solution within the next couple of years.&quot; - people have been saying effectively the same thing about fusion for 50 years, and it still hasn&#x27;t happened. Just because something would be nice doesn&#x27;t make it possible or likely it will happen soon.
jbattleabout 11 years ago
If i were to place a bet on how the game gets changed for EV it is a battery swapping model like that explored by Better Place. <a href="http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Better_Place</a><p>They went belly up but there is something intuitive and compelling about the model.