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Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

90 pointsby OJKoukazabout 11 years ago

16 comments

dangeroabout 11 years ago
I'm pretty skeptical about resale value on the Model S at 5 or more years out just because their newer models will have major technical advances and the cost of a battery replacement. It's hard to speculate on that right now since the car is too new.
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jsnkabout 11 years ago
Repost from 18 hours ago (<a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7583256" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=7583256</a>)
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js2about 11 years ago
Just to throw some maintenance numbers out there since I happen to own a 2003 Odyssey with over 170k miles and I&#x27;ve kept track of the costs in a spreadsheet. So far I&#x27;ve spent just under $10k in maintenance.<p>The big annoying charge was ~ $4200 at 110k miles in 2010. The transmission failed, so this charge was for a Honda remanufactured transmission and PCM, plus the 105k maintenance (new timing belt).<p>The other significant charges are brakes and tires. It&#x27;s almost $1k to replace the tires and brake rotors, which on this vehicle have been around every 50k miles.<p>SWAG at fuel costs: 170k &#x2F; 20 mpg * $3 ~ $25k.
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tasty_freezeabout 11 years ago
First: &quot;I&#x27;d only purchased 3 cars before in my life. A Toyota Camry, that I drove for 12 years. ... A Honda Odyssey, that we had owned for 6 years. And a Nissan Leaf, that we had owned for 3 years. &quot;<p>Then: &quot;The RAV4 EV, which we had just purchased, decimated the pack.&quot;<p>These two statements aren&#x27;t compatible. Or somehow I am repeatedly misreading what he is saying.
not_that_noobabout 11 years ago
As much as I admire Elon and Tesla, Consumer Reports rated Audi clean diesel at a cheaper cost per mile than Tesla. So the comparison I&#x27;d really like to see is Tesla against the Audis.
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josephpmayabout 11 years ago
Not including insurance was a mistake. The Honda Odyssey has some of the cheapest insurance of any car.
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apiabout 11 years ago
In the long run EVs have the potential to be radically cheaper than gasoline cars: fewer moving parts, etc.
lafar6502about 11 years ago
- How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop or can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance costs if you have no alternatives?<p>- What about the &#x27;guaranteed&#x27; buyback option? I&#x27;d be afraid that a buyback will be the only option to sell your old Tesla, because they won&#x27;t be re-sellable on a free market without a costly hw&#x2F;sw upgrade that can be done ONLY by Tesla.<p>- There&#x27;s no way to reduce your costs by using third party replacement parts or batteries.<p>- A single failure can ruin your ROI calculations because the repair costs are hard to predict.<p>- The market for used Teslas is limited to areas where the charging network is available
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pjschlicabout 11 years ago
Am I missing something here? I tried to use his number to run a net present value assessment of a few example cars and came up with wildly different numbers of NPV. I think a Tesla is cool, but if you are trying to save money by buying a 93k Tesla rather than a 50k BMW, you might not be saving all you think you are (assuming a 3% depreciation factor for future money, I didn&#x27;t see what he was using, looking only at the year 8 when the car is sold back):<p>Tesla S85:<p>[year one] 93,970+8222+1170<p>[Tax break] -(10000&#x2F;1.03)<p>[resale] -(30,160&#x2F;(1.03^8))<p>[electricity and maintenance] +(600&#x2F;1.03)+(1900&#x2F;1.03)+(600&#x2F;1.03^2)+(650&#x2F;1.03^3)+(650&#x2F;1.03^4)+(1300&#x2F;1.03^5)+(1300&#x2F;1.03^6)+(1350&#x2F;1.03^7)+(1350&#x2F;1.03^8)<p>= -78383 NPV<p>BMW 382d (ICE with greatest depreciation &#x2F; maintenance):<p>[Year one] 50000+4480+1200<p>[Resale] -(15000&#x2F;(1.03^8))<p>[Gas and maintenance] +(1594&#x2F;1.03)+(1631&#x2F;1.03^2)+(1669&#x2F;1.03^3)+(1706&#x2F;1.03^4)+(2288&#x2F;1.03^5)+(4327&#x2F;1.03^6)+(2365&#x2F;1.03^7)+(2404&#x2F;1.03^8)<p>= -59385 NPV<p>Did I make a mistake here?
jstultzabout 11 years ago
I&#x27;m skeptical of his estimated electricity cost; as a Bay Area resident, $0.12&#x2F;kwh seemed low, so at first I thought he might be in an area of the country with lower energy costs, but he states he&#x27;s actually in Silicon Valley.<p>I&#x27;m not sure how his particular usage and rates compare, but the rates for my most recent PG&amp;E bill are as follows:<p>$0.13627 for the first 487.20 kWh $0.15491 for the next 146.6 kWh $0.31949 for the next 340.9 kWh and then up.<p>In my area, according to my bill, average household usage (for the past month) is 400kWh, and 250kWh for &quot;efficient homes.&quot; I&#x27;d imagine average use is higher in the summer months due to air conditioning, etc, and higher in the winter months due to heating and lighting.<p>So, right off the bat, $0.12&#x2F;kWh is low, but perhaps rates were a bit lower when he did this analysis, or he lives in an area with cheaper rates? But let&#x27;s assume that he&#x27;s an efficient user of electricity, and uses 250 kWh&#x2F;month for things aside from the car. He estimated 15k miles per year, at 3 miles&#x2F;kWh, that&#x27;s 416 kWh per month, which works out to roughlly $65.50&#x2F;month, or $785&#x2F;year, not $600.<p>If we instead assume he&#x27;s an average user in a home that&#x27;s not &quot;efficient&quot;, it goes way up to roughly $92&#x2F;month, or about $1100&#x2F;year.<p>Obviously I don&#x27;t know this person&#x27;s exact rates for electricity, or his usage, and it may be the case that there are credits associated with having an electric car that can bring his average rates down or prevent him from going into the higher tiers (as he said, he could often charge for free at work), but regardless an estimate of $0.12&#x2F;kWh seems strikingly low. I&#x27;m sure there are areas of the country where that&#x27;s reasonable, or even high, but I don&#x27;t think the Bay Area is one of them.<p>Of all the cost analyses of Tesla ownership that I&#x27;ve seen (admittedly few), I have yet to see one that attempts to take into account the higher marginal electricity cost associated with using significantly more electricity.
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giarcabout 11 years ago
Why exclude all North American manufacturers? I was hoping the author would address the exclusion.
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justinphabout 11 years ago
I&#x27;m surprised a Prius V was not included in this matrix. It would seem to fit favorably within the range of features the OP was looking for, but also is efficient, low maintenance, and safe.<p>I love Tesla, but they are just not there yet on cost.
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stretchwithmeabout 11 years ago
I plugged some more realistic values into Tesla&#x27;s TCO page and it still is way more expensive than what the 14 year old Toyota I drive :-)<p><pre><code> http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.teslamotors.com&#x2F;true-cost-of-ownership</code></pre>
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anxmanabout 11 years ago
As a 2013 Model S owner, even I am skeptical of the OP&#x27;s calculation. The big &quot;what if&quot;, as mentioned by other posters, is the depreciation value of the vehicle. EV vehicles typically depreciate more quickly than ICE vehicles and we don&#x27;t have enough trailing sales data to know appropriate numbers yet.<p>That being said, I love everything about Tesla and even if the car depreciates more quickly than a Mercedes or BMW, I&#x27;d still be happy with it.
analyst74about 11 years ago
I&#x27;ve also been very interested in true ownership cost of cars, and what I noticed is that for new cars, cost of depreciation overshadows all other costs combined for the first 2~3 years, longer for luxury brands.<p>So there is no point calculating the TCO of new car over more than 3 years, because if you are OK driving an old car, it&#x27;s always much cheaper to buy used.
skywhopperabout 11 years ago
What&#x27;s up with the font on this site? In Google Chrome on Windows 7 it&#x27;s nearly unreadable. Most of the internal horizontal strokes are just missing from the letters.
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