TE
TechEcho
Home24h TopNewestBestAskShowJobs
GitHubTwitter
Home

TechEcho

A tech news platform built with Next.js, providing global tech news and discussions.

GitHubTwitter

Home

HomeNewestBestAskShowJobs

Resources

HackerNews APIOriginal HackerNewsNext.js

© 2025 TechEcho. All rights reserved.

The Indie Bubble Is Popping

125 pointsby cjauvinabout 11 years ago

24 comments

mchermabout 11 years ago
Much of what Jeff has to say in this article is true. Especially the part about how the cold, hard-hearted hand of Adam Smith will ensure that when X dollars are divided among Y game developers and Y increases, that the developer income will decrease.<p>That is why the only real hope of the developers is to change X. And that is possible. There are hundreds of thousands of 12-year-olds who are obsessed with Minecraft. (Seriously: last week when my son visited a new school wearing a Minecraft shirt, something like 60% of the male middleschoolers go out of their way to say something about it to him, and several teachers mentioned how obsessed they were.) That market didn&#x27;t exist before Minecraft.<p>In a similar vein, I spend a certain number of hours per week watching shows on Netflix, and I am certain that I could be persuaded to spend a big chunk of that time playing a game (for which I would gladly pay money). But it isn&#x27;t one of my habits -- someone would need to find the sort of game I would enjoy and manage to let me know about it.<p>Here are some hints: since I am not your normal market I don&#x27;t own the latest console nor do I own a fancy controller (but I CAN run Steam). I am not that excited about first-person-shoot-em-ups (if I were then I would already have gotten involved), but I might be interested in something more strategic. I am not willing to pay much up-front (since I don&#x27;t know for sure if I&#x27;ll really be into doing this) but I would be willing to spend money once I know that I like it, so long as I don&#x27;t feel like I am being cheated (mandatory in-game payments or play-to-win often leaves me feeling that way). And most important of all, I do not read the indy gaming press or attend indy gaming conferences (since I am a NOT the existing demographic), so you need to reach me some other way -- probably through my friends, using some form of viral marketing.<p>The market for independent video games is small, but the market for entertainment is astonishingly large. (Plus, maybe your game can be something ELSE... educational perhaps?) The route to profit is to find a new (bigger) niche.
评论 #7781426 未加载
评论 #7781481 未加载
评论 #7781448 未加载
评论 #7781694 未加载
guard-of-terraabout 11 years ago
Discoverability is a huge problem. I would at any time want more turn based strategies in the triangle HoMM-Disciples-MoM, but it seems there aren&#x27;t any? Even if there are, I can&#x27;t discover them! Only thing that still can do is word of mouth.<p>I&#x27;ve scraped Play store for wargames and the best I got was a crappy game I did not run for the second time. I believe I paid for that.<p>Word of mouth is very irregular and app stores&#x27; charts are always full with &quot;safe choices&quot;, i.e. either you know about this title already or it is a knockoff crap.<p>I would like to spend more on good games but I don&#x27;t see much supply.
评论 #7781363 未加载
评论 #7781349 未加载
评论 #7781560 未加载
评论 #7781465 未加载
评论 #7781358 未加载
drewcrawfordabout 11 years ago
I was doing some background research for another essay and this is as good a time as any to produce an actual journal article on point.<p>There&#x27;s a common talking point I&#x27;ve seen both in this comment thread and elsewhere that the number of entrants isn&#x27;t the problem at all and the <i>real</i> problem is game developers aren&#x27;t innovating, and if they just innovated more things would be fine.<p>Kevin Boudreau [1] is one of the earliest researches on this scene, who concludes that &quot;incremental increases in the number of application producers in this context led to a decrease in innovation incentives, on average, as measured by the rate at which new versions of existing titles were generated&quot; and further that &quot;the strength of descriptive patterns alone suggests that marginal entrants curtailed overall innovation&quot;.<p>Kevin&#x27;s research, while it has many limitations, suggests that innovation decline is actually a symptom of an overcrowded market, not an independent factor in its own right. If true, this could mean that the practical way to address an innovation crisis is to first solve the problem of the overcrowded market.<p>The idea that market crowding depresses the innovation of individual independent developers is sort of a surprising result, but once accepted there are many possible feedback mechanisms that may explain the effect. For example, market crowding may drive innovators to go innovate somewhere else. Crowding may also limit available funding which may be disproportionately required by innovative titles rather than non-innovative titles which can be more cheaply manufactured.<p>[1] preprint: <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=%201826702" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;papers.ssrn.com&#x2F;sol3&#x2F;papers.cfm?abstract_id=%20182670...</a><p>jstor: <a href="http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/23252315?searchUri=%2Faction%2FdoBasicSearch%3FQuery%3Diphone%2Bsoftware%2Bengineering%26amp%3Bprq%3Diphone%26amp%3Bhp%3D25%26amp%3Bacc%3Doff%26amp%3Bwc%3Don%26amp%3Bfc%3Doff%26amp%3Bso%3Drel%26amp%3Bracc%3Doff&amp;resultItemClick=true" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.jstor.org&#x2F;discover&#x2F;10.2307&#x2F;23252315?searchUri=%2F...</a>
suprjamiabout 11 years ago
I have been playing Jeff Vogel&#x27;s games since Exile 1 in 1995, and I&#x27;m still playing them today with the Avadon series. He&#x27;s a fantastic author and fantasy world architect, however I strongly disagree with his opinions on the game industry.<p>This is a guy who was selling a 20+ yearold game as a downloadable installer from his ancient website for $30 while new indie authors were pumping out new games on sale for $10, $5, or less. Who was making more sales, and ultimately more profit from this? Evidence it wasn&#x27;t him: <a href="http://www.shacknews.com/article/57308/valve-left-4-dead-half" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.shacknews.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;57308&#x2F;valve-left-4-dead-hal...</a><p>I think Jeff is a dinosaur, stuck in the 90s shareware era, and bitter that people can make more money by selling games for $3 than he can by selling games for $30.
评论 #7781561 未加载
评论 #7781551 未加载
archagonabout 11 years ago
Frankly, I&#x27;ve yet to see a truly stunning game pass me by, either in the indie space or on the App Store (where this problem has existed for a little while now). Market saturation causes mediocre games to become buried. The obvious solution is to not make mediocre games. I&#x27;m still convinced the cream will rise to the top.
评论 #7781310 未加载
评论 #7781282 未加载
评论 #7781439 未加载
评论 #7781428 未加载
评论 #7781345 未加载
mxfhabout 11 years ago
But still there are more new indie games than AAA titles out there I care about, it&#x27;s not a tragedy if there only 2 to 6 outstanding games per year that reach me through the noise, mostly by direct recommendation.<p>The best thing about Greenlight is that pre-2005 games get some new exposure and even patches, like in the case of <i>Jets&#x27;n&#x27;Guns</i>. So if you want to stretch the music industry analogy as others did, you currently not only competing with the ever increasing amount of new releases but also with back catalogs on the same platform.<p>Another problem with an awful lot of indie games (especially those 40% unplayed fillers games from bundles, which are not even always strictly speaking Indie) is that you can see that there was little to no user testing, so they are just not fun or even impossible to play on specific not too exotic configurations.<p>Just to name a few (each of these happened in at least two games):<p><pre><code> - no way to remap keys - no way to remap mouse buttons or game ignores windows swapped buttons - fixed resolutions - optimized for small resolution, resulting in insane mouse travel on today&#x27;s native screen resolutions (just drop that retro stick if you just cant effort a proper artist please.) - no way to run a game windowed - touch optimized ports from Android don&#x27;t even register windows touch events. - Content is cropped off screen with wider aspect radios with no way to change resolution.</code></pre>
评论 #7781648 未加载
jjjeffreyabout 11 years ago
I&#x27;ve been thinking recently about what makes a good video game experience for me, and it&#x27;s slightly relevant.<p>I can place the games I&#x27;ve highly enjoyed into two basic categories:<p>-Short and sweet, having one or more of 1. interesting play mechanics 2. great story&#x2F;theme 3. interesting art direction.<p>-Solid all around, with addictive elements (e.g. leveling, collecting things) that make repetitive tasks seem fun and extend the time I play the game to beyond a few evenings.<p>Many indie games I&#x27;ve played fit into the former category, and most non-indie games fit into the latter.<p>I&#x27;ve been realizing that these &quot;short and sweet&quot; games that I&#x27;ve been getting more and more of a chance to play have provided more lasting and fulfilling experiences than longer games. The feeling I get from sinking an evening into a short and sweet game is kind of similar to reading a good book or playing a good chess match. Likewise, the feeling I get from sinking an evening into a longer game is some artificial feeling of making progress.<p>I&#x27;m overgeneralizing a little, but the point is I&#x27;ve started skipping AAA titles in favor of trying out lots of indie games. Most aren&#x27;t great, but the cost of a few dollars or less and a half hour to find out isn&#x27;t bad. For me, it&#x27;s worth it to find the gems. And not having several-week-long addictions to games with low quality:time ratios is great too.<p>I really hope there&#x27;s no indie bubble.
评论 #7781862 未加载
评论 #7781540 未加载
benologistabout 11 years ago
The indie bubble isn&#x27;t popping. It&#x27;s an amazing time to be an indie developer, with massive audiences sitting around just itching to create millionaires.<p>The developers who are suffering are the ones who can&#x27;t figure out how to get on top of markets, and especially the ones armed with obsolete &quot;strategies&quot; like being the only new game on Steam this month.
incisionabout 11 years ago
Odd article.<p>It feels to me like the author is trying hard not to offend his community and ending up a ways off the point.<p>There can&#x27;t be &#x27;too many&#x27; games any more than there can be &#x27;too many&#x27; websites or whatever else.<p>Too many is only relevant here because the indie segment has effectively been propped up on the good will of the community, not the quality of those games - with obvious exceptions.<p>This is a charity pie being sliced thin, not one made of value.<p>High-value products will always have a place in any market.<p>Second rate games have been skating by with issues or omissions that would see any major label release crucified simply because they were sporting the indie armband of immunity. Expecting to turn a profit, much less get rich with anything less than <i>&quot;an utterly flawless, ground-breaking title and utterly blow everyone’s minds.&quot;</i> is the problem.<p>Forget the indie label and there&#x27;s absolutely nothing new to see here.
评论 #7781393 未加载
评论 #7781420 未加载
评论 #7781405 未加载
评论 #7781593 未加载
shmerlabout 11 years ago
I disagree with the general sentiment.<p><i>&gt; The problem is too many games.</i><p>That&#x27;s not the problem. It&#x27;s like saying that music industry is in crisis because there are tons of junk records around. Good music is always a minority and one has to sift through noise to get to it. Gaming isn&#x27;t any different. Good games are a form of art, and they are always a minority, whether we are talking about indie and low budget or big budget &#x2F; publisher funded games. That&#x27;s why Steam may be a bad example, because filtering games there isn&#x27;t easy. Services like GOG concentrate on <i>good</i> games. That&#x27;s of course subjective (according to the distributor), but they do a lot of pre-filtering for you.<p><i>&gt; It&#x27;s not sustainable.</i><p>It is, like any other art. Make something unique, make something good and you&#x27;ll find your audience. Crowdfunding also helps to increase visibility.
评论 #7781338 未加载
评论 #7781339 未加载
pachydermicabout 11 years ago
tl;dr the indie space is more competitive than it was a few years ago and it&#x27;s hard to get noticed<p>Well maybe that&#x27;s not fair, but that&#x27;s the impression I got from this.<p>That is very different from a &quot;bubble&quot; popping. The problem of discoverability will be solved by <i>someone</i> - there&#x27;s just too much money on the table for that to not happen. Whether it&#x27;s Valve or not no-one knows (obviously they&#x27;re the front runners now), but someone will get it done.<p>Sure. It&#x27;s probably a lot harder for the indie devs out there in a lot of ways (in terms of trying to stand out - or only getting a smaller and smaller slice of the market). On the other hand, there are tools like Kickstarter, Unity and now Unreal which make it much, much easier to make games - often for a wider array of platforms.<p>Harder to stand out, but lower barrier to entry - that makes sense and does not mean that any bubble is about to burst. In fact, it probably means that games will just continue to get better!
评论 #7781656 未加载
评论 #7781500 未加载
overgardabout 11 years ago
You know, what really got me into indie games was that most of them had something unique and interesting to offer. They weren&#x27;t all auteur works (although a lot of them were), but they generally felt like they weren&#x27;t just made &quot;to make a game&quot;, they were made because they had a reason to exist. There were definitely a lot of rough edges, but they were interesting. There wasn&#x27;t the hegemony you&#x27;d see in AAA titles.<p>But... you don&#x27;t see that so much in the indie scene now. Many of those games feel like they just exist because someone thought &quot;I should make a game&quot;. There&#x27;s nothing inherently wrong with that, but it&#x27;s somewhat counter to the spirit that made the scene interesting in the first place.<p>I feel like a lot of indie games now capture the form but not the function. They look indie, but they don&#x27;t really feel indie. I don&#x27;t think there&#x27;s an indie &quot;bubble&quot;, I feel like the scene that had those values has moved somewhere else. Or if it hasn&#x27;t, it will. We&#x27;ve always had a glut of mediocre games that didn&#x27;t really make anyone much money (see: flash games in the mid oughts.) Same thing, its just the platform has expanded and the branding has changed.
评论 #7781906 未加载
mindstababout 11 years ago
One of the assumed axioms of this argument is the the game industry is a zero-sum game, which it isn&#x27;t at all in anyway. Now maybe it&#x27;s not the flexibilist market and the low hanging fruit and easy stuff is much more saturated then it was a few years ago so it&#x27;s certainly harder, but a bit the argument has some more give in it than it might be admitting.
BoppreHabout 11 years ago
I think the model of X dollars &#x2F; Y developers is wrong.<p>When I see a good game being sold by a good price I buy it. I only stop myself if I&#x27;ve spent a large amount recently, which so far only happened during some Steam sales.<p>This means my &quot;gaming money pool&quot; is not a pool at all because I may spend no money for months at a time, or spend a significant fraction of my salary in a week. If my behavior is as common as I believe it is, this completely invalidates the model of X dollars &#x2F; Y developers and paints a much less bleaker picture of the future.
hyperion2010about 11 years ago
I think others have mentioned this already, but this is a problem that faces almost every industry these days. How do you get your product noticed? Why is advertising the fuel of the web? Competition. There are 10 versions of exactly the thing the buyer is looking for and 10,000 other things that are almost what they are looking for. Those 10,010 different sellers are all trying to capture that sale.<p>There are many different information channels that companies can try to use to get the word out. Without having done an actual study myself (though I&#x27;m sure someone has) I would guess that if you can trigger a word of mouth or viral campaign they end up being extremely effective. Furthermore if I had to guess if you can get the attention of one of the &#x27;hubs&#x27; (a respected member of a community) in a social network to endorse or mention you, there is also a huge payoff.<p>Search and algorithms is one way to approach the problem, probably &#x27;the new way.&#x27; Maybe some day we will have AI agents that know us so well that they can search through the morass of content and products and find things that will actually enrich our lives, but for now we&#x27;re still monkeys that respond strongly to social cues and our algorithms suck and are easily gamed (star ratings) or are extremely time consuming (reading tons of reviews). So we go find an expert or someone we trust.
pkambabout 11 years ago
&gt; How many times last year did we see the article, &quot;Another 100 Greenlight games OK&#x27;ed for publishing!&quot;?<p>Why are console games still being &quot;OK&#x27;ed for publishing&quot;? Why haven&#x27;t any of the big names (Steam&#x2F;Xbox&#x2F;PlayStation&#x2F;Nintendo&#x2F;Apple) released a true &quot;app store&quot; where <i>anyone</i> can get a game into the store for maybe $100 and after going through a light content review process?
评论 #7781503 未加载
评论 #7781473 未加载
Taekabout 11 years ago
Video games are joining the same ranks as books and music. The barrier to entry for creating a video game is dropping. Libraries are getting better and programming is getting more ubiquitous.<p>Video games are on track to be as difficult to publish successfully as books and music (and perhaps movies). If you aren&#x27;t a big budget, it&#x27;s very rare that you&#x27;ll enter mainstream. The expectation is going to stop being that video games are a vehicle for profit (just like being an author is not typically considered a vehicle for profit).
xsmasherabout 11 years ago
&gt; X dollars, Y developers. That&#x27;s all that matters.<p>That assumes the indie market is a only feeding on its existing audience. Minecraft&#x27;s money didn&#x27;t come at the expense of indie developers; it came from EA and Sony and the other big publishers.<p>I don&#x27;t dispute the rest of his thesis, but that &quot;X&quot; is big enough for all &quot;Y&quot; of the indies to pay their rents for a long time if divided evenly.<p>I think the quality problem, the discovery problem, and &quot;alpha fatigue&quot; from games that are never finished are bigger issues.
damian2000about 11 years ago
Totally unrelated, but how does this post rank so low on the HN front page? 84 points in 2 hours is huge ... but its at number 22 right now. Has something happened to the HN rank algorithm?
islonalmost 11 years ago
I don’t think the problem is money vs games (the X and Y) the problem is time vs games. I have enough money to buy all the games I want and don’t want to play, most of them are very cheap in bundles and promotions, I just don’t have time to play all of them (I’m talking more about pc&#x2F;console games, not mobile ones). There’s only so much games you can buy and not play before you start thinking about not buying anymore and focus on the ones you really want to play.
ps4fanboyabout 11 years ago
Steam is currently being flooded with &quot;Casual&quot; mobile app ports it remains to be seen if they actually sell, I have yet to see one on the top sellers list after release. I would hardly call that a bubble. Good indie games will continue to make money.
jaunkstabout 11 years ago
The state of gaming blows. Today&#x27;s platforms pigeonhole the consumer and developer to being unhappy. Casual gaming is flooded, but there is always money for core gamers to spend on a quality product especially original and innovative indie games.
james33about 11 years ago
The good news is that these things always go in cycles. The ones that can weather the downturn will be the big winners on the other side.
kevingaddabout 11 years ago
This comment thread is filled to the brim with arguments that either demonstrate a lack of familiarity with video games (excusable, but...) or regular old weak thinking.<p>A few variations on this core theme:<p>&quot;The cream will rise to the top&quot;<p>&quot;Good games will find an audience&quot;<p>&quot;Create something truly special and you will be successful&quot;<p>These lines of thinking are all COMPLETE AND UTTER NONSENSE. I would love to live in a world where those statements were true, but they are not. They have <i>never</i> been true in video games, even if they are perhaps true in other industries. Anyone with any experience observing games development, sales and marketing knows that these statements are false.<p>The vast majority of successful game titles are successful as a result of a finely-tuned marketing and sales pipeline.<p>The big studios have their own pipeline for this: Paying staff to contact the news outlets and YouTubers, paying to run television advertisements or put up billboards, doing co-promotional deals (like bundling the Battlefield 4 beta in with another game, etc), advertising their new games via popups in older games, buying installs to climb the app store rankings, etc.<p>Smaller developers can&#x27;t use the big studios&#x27; bag of tricks, so they use their own: Forming industry connections, so that developers and other people with big audiences promote the game to their audiences. Building name recognition and dedicated fanbases by shipping lots of games (Jeff Vogel is a textbook example of this - decades of releases!). Building dozens of cheap games and releasing them to try and find something that fans like. Cashing in on the latest trends and buzzwords in order to get good returns. Slaving away for no pay for months or years, killing yourself to make a &#x27;masterpiece&#x27;.<p>Note that many of the above tricks are <i>not</i> guaranteed to work. Some of the highest-profile &#x27;indie successes&#x27; in the past few years have actually had poor sales or poor revenues, when you examine their budget. In some cases this is due to actively being undermined by the storefront. Microsoft has a track record of undermining big releases on XBLA by scheduling them at poor times, dropping them from the front page, and otherwise leaving them to die. Some of the other big publishers do this too - Electronic Arts sank a ton of money into Starbreeze&#x27;s new Syndicate reboot, then spent nearly nothing marketing it and it languished in a pit along with all the other FPSes - even though it&#x27;s actually a quite solid game from a studio with a great pedigree (reviewers agree).<p>Here&#x27;s the reality of building and selling video games:<p>Building video games is expensive. It probably costs more time &amp; money than you realistically have.<p>Selling video games is difficult... and expensive. You often have to sink as much time&#x2F;money into selling your game as you do in building it - lots of contract reviews&#x2F;negotiation, along with lawyers&#x27; fees, time spent prepping builds for each storefront and building storefront&#x2F;platform-exclusive content (steam workshop, achievements, etc).<p>Making it possible for players to find your video game is difficult... and expensive. You sink tons of time&#x2F;money (often over the whole duration of development) reaching out to journalists, youtubers, genre fans, previous customers, and random strangers. You spend money on booths at conventions like PAX, buy banner ads on game-focused websites, build a mailing list, etc.<p>Even after all this, factors entirely outside your control <i>will</i> fuck you. Your game will get pirated, Steam&#x27;s checkout flow will break during your launch week, a crippling bug found on launch day will undermine your sales, or market forces will simply shift and leave your game stranded in a market players aren&#x27;t interested in anymore. Sometimes another developer literally swoops in under you, clones your game outright (based on all that marketing and outreach you&#x27;ve been doing), and steals a huge chunk of your market. This has happened to Vlambeer <i>multiple times</i> and has happened to other big-name indies (Spry Fox, for example).<p>People interested in dropping some lazy truisms like &#x27;just work hard and build something awesome&#x27; are doing themselves a disservice and lowering the level of discourse. There are hard problems here, and many of them are not actively being solved. Some of the problems are <i>within</i> the industry, and mean developers need to make better choices. Some of them are the industry&#x27;s machinery, with storefronts providing inadequate discovery and unreliable sales pipelines. Some of them are playerbase issues, where players tend to chase after novelty and hot trends (I want a minecraft clone! I want a zombie game!) and don&#x27;t have discerning tastes.<p>Many of these problems aren&#x27;t any one person&#x27;s fault, they&#x27;re just problems we have to fix. But nobody is going to fix anything if we keep plugging our ears and yelling &quot;EVERYTHING IS FINE!&quot;
评论 #7782027 未加载