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Benford's law

56 pointsby vhfalmost 11 years ago

10 comments

lukasmalmost 11 years ago
&quot;Benford&#x27;s Law can be used to show that binary is the best base for doing floating point math.&quot;<p><a href="http://blogs.msdn.com/b/ericlippert/archive/2005/01/13/floating-point-and-benford-s-law-part-two.aspx" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;blogs.msdn.com&#x2F;b&#x2F;ericlippert&#x2F;archive&#x2F;2005&#x2F;01&#x2F;13&#x2F;float...</a>
eudoxalmost 11 years ago
&gt;In the United States, evidence based on Benford&#x27;s Law has been admitted in criminal cases at the federal, state, and local levels.<p>This, to me, is the most interesting part of the article.
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jds375almost 11 years ago
It is very surprising that distributions such as Fibonacci and the powers of two follow this law. Some number sequences that don&#x27;t are numbers like pi and e. These numbers are said to be normal numbers, meaning they have an equal distribution amongst all digits. However, this hasn&#x27;t been rigorously proven and is still an open problem.[1]<p><a href="http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_number" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Normal_number</a>
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tbrockalmost 11 years ago
I worked at a hedge fund and we used this to figure out whether other funds were falsifying their returns or not. The most notable deviation was Bernie Madoff&#x27;s.
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bayesianhorsealmost 11 years ago
Benford&#x27;s law is so well known today, that many a &quot;forger&quot; will evade it easily. One way is to create random numbers and find a solution that fits both your goal and Benford&#x27;s law.<p>I think this is what the German ADAC did when they falsified test results around a general &quot;idea&quot; what they wanted to see.
ajtullochalmost 11 years ago
Terry Tao has written an excellent (if mathematically advanced) post on Benford&#x27;s law that is worth looking at for a more rigorous presentation.<p><a href="http://terrytao.wordpress.com/2009/07/03/benfords-law-zipfs-law-and-the-pareto-distribution/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;terrytao.wordpress.com&#x2F;2009&#x2F;07&#x2F;03&#x2F;benfords-law-zipfs-...</a>
ericchiangalmost 11 years ago
Probably the best explanation of the intuition behind Benford&#x27;s law. Worth a watch if you&#x27;ve got the time:<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXjlR2OK1kM" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=XXjlR2OK1kM</a>
Terr_almost 11 years ago
To reuse an old post:<p>&gt; [I]t has to do with relative growth&#x2F;shrinkage and the base of the positional-numbering system you&#x27;re using. If you have a random starting value (X) multiplied by a second random factor (Y), most of the time the result will start with a one.<p>&gt; You&#x27;re basically throwing darts at logarithmic graph paper! The area covered by squares which &quot;start with 1&quot; is larger than the area covered by square which &quot;start with 9&quot;.
brycethorntonalmost 11 years ago
Here&#x27;s a site a friend and I built a while back to test some open datasets against Benford&#x27;s Law:<p><a href="http://www.testingbenfordslaw.com/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.testingbenfordslaw.com&#x2F;</a><p>Most seem to match fairly closely. We accept pull requests with new datasets if anyone wants to contribute.
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jcralmost 11 years ago
Here&#x27;s a fairly recent link about using Benford&#x27;s law to detect fraud.<p><a href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/Print/2014/05/14/theorums_1_benford/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theregister.co.uk&#x2F;Print&#x2F;2014&#x2F;05&#x2F;14&#x2F;theorums_1_ben...</a>