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Growth Has Been Good for Decades. So Why Hasn’t Poverty Declined?

67 pointsby sinnedalmost 11 years ago

16 comments

spodekalmost 11 years ago
Growth describes the size of the economy. Poverty describes distribution. While size and distribution may correlate long enough that people start to believe they causally relate, they don&#x27;t have to.<p>&quot;A rising tide lifts all boats&quot; is a nice belief and accurate for many boats and tides, but there&#x27;s no reason to believe that what holds for boats holds for economies, any more than the behavior of dominoes held for Southeast Asian countries.<p>For that matter, it doesn&#x27;t hold for all boats. A big enough tide could completely submerge a boat firmly enough anchored to the sea floor, for example.
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paul_falmost 11 years ago
Unless one defines poverty clearly, then I cannot accept this premise. For example, the US census bureau uses 48 different poverty thresholds and does not explain clearly where they came from. <a href="http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/about/overview/measure.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.census.gov&#x2F;hhes&#x2F;www&#x2F;poverty&#x2F;about&#x2F;overview&#x2F;measur...</a><p>Here are some other interesting comments that should throw the entire conversation into doubt: - They are intended for use as a statistical yardstick, not as a complete description of what people and families need to live. - Many government aid programs use a different poverty measure - Poverty thresholds were originally derived in 1963-1964, using: U.S. Department of Agriculture food budgets designed for families under economic stress. and Data about what portion of their income families spent on food.<p>BTW, they also admit that they do not take geography into account. Anybody see a problem with that?
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apialmost 11 years ago
It&#x27;s interesting to me that the stagnating or declining middle class is largely a first world issue, while in the developing world the middle class is exploding.<p>The best explanation I&#x27;ve encountered is Peter Thiel&#x27;s commentary on horizontal vs. vertical development. We&#x27;ve taken an energy and industrial system that absolutely cannot scale to seven billion people and now we&#x27;re trying to make it scale to seven billion people. The result is a kind of low-grade, very slow malthusian event in which people in the developed world are (relatively speaking) impoverished by exploding energy and resource costs. What we need is vertical development -- technological development -- to create systems that actually <i>will</i> scale. Everybody can&#x27;t drive a hydrocarbon powered car. It can&#x27;t be done.<p>I think this also explains why first world poverty rates are not shrinking. The poorer you are the more price sensitive you are to things like energy prices, so the poor are impacted by scarcity exponentially more than the wealthy.<p>Note that if this is true then wealth redistribution might not help. It might just trigger price inflation in scarce resources. Redistribute more and they&#x27;ll inflate more, and more, and more. ... But then again maybe it would help by causing lots of investment money to chase that demand and develop alternatives. It would cause hockey stick price signals across all the rate limiting inputs for the economy.<p>Hmm... well now... maybe we <i>should</i> drop money from helicopters...
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jlaroccoalmost 11 years ago
Looks like they&#x27;re moving the goal posts a little bit here. &quot;Poverty&quot; today is not the same as &quot;poverty&quot; decades ago.<p>The standard of living for people in poverty today is (a lot) higher than the standard of living for people in poverty decades ago.
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malchowalmost 11 years ago
&quot;Growth has been good for decades, so why do we still have 10% of people who are poorer than the remaining 90% of the people?<p>Debating policy based on a chart showing one clean* variable -- growth -- and one that a faceless bureaucracy sets by fiat every year is not a brilliant idea.<p>As ever, Adam Smith, writing in 1776, had the right idea. Here is how he defined poverty: “By [poverty] I understand, not only the [lack of] commodities which are indispensably necessary for the support of life, but whatever the custom of the country renders it indecent for creditable people, even of the lowest order, to be without. A linen shirt, for example, is, strictly speaking, not a necessary of life. . .But in the present times, through the greater part of Europe, a creditable day-labourer would be ashamed to appear in public without a linen shirt. . .Custom, in the same manner, has rendered leather shoes a necessary of life in England. The poorest creditable person of either sex would be ashamed to appear in public without them. . .Under necessaries, therefore, I comprehend, not only those things which nature, but those things which the established rules of decency have rendered necessary to the lowest rank of people.”<p>* The growth variable isn&#x27;t clean, either. Much of the alleged growth is in transfers, government, and credit.
zwiebackalmost 11 years ago
Like many commenters I have the same question about what &quot;poverty&quot; really means. I asked an economist doing social policy, and the response was basically that the definition of poverty is not an economic question but a political one. Which would explain why we are talking about this issue so much without any real progress.<p>Without a doubt, today&#x27;s definition of poverty would be very different from the one used in the 1950s but the fundamental question is whether we should have an absolute metric or a relative one.
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fragsworthalmost 11 years ago
We are building incredible new technologies at an astounding rate, resulting in less demand for work that can be automated. So people who do &quot;automatable&quot; work can&#x27;t make much money anymore.<p>Growth appears to be good, but all the profits are going to the owners and employees of these relatively small technology companies.<p>This is also probably a major part of the reason why the wealth disparity is increasing.
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nilknalmost 11 years ago
Isn&#x27;t it simply possible that what constitutes poverty has changed over time? If poverty is defined as, say, the bottom tenth of the population income-wise, then poverty will <i>never</i> decrease, by definition.
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AnimalMuppetalmost 11 years ago
Somewhere around a <i>billion</i> people have been lifted out of poverty in the past 30 years or so. (Citing from memory, don&#x27;t have a source handy, but it&#x27;s about that number). It&#x27;s amazing how good that is.<p>But they weren&#x27;t in the US.<p>So why hasn&#x27;t US poverty declined? The same reason it <i>has</i> declined other places: globalization.
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opendaisalmost 11 years ago
I think the underlying problem is the bottom end of the US labor market only has two ladders up and they pulled out from under them:<p>Manufacturing<p>Education to get a better job [I don&#x27;t mean college. I mean something like a trade school to become a plumber or the like].<p>The kind of blue collar manufacturing jobs they could get is largely done in other countries and imported to the US. There simply aren&#x27;t enough of these in the US to employ a larger percentage of the population.<p>Education has gotten too expensive and given these are likely people who could never graduate college...it is very high risk for them as well, even at a trade school.<p>I think we really need to get people to go from High School to a Trade School to a Job. Because otherwise, I don&#x27;t see a way to really shrink the poverty level without raising the minimum wage which is politically unreliable [e.g. We might raise it for 2-3 years, but in 6-8 we will ignore it for a decade again]
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lifeofanalysisalmost 11 years ago
This analysis is an opinion without proper analysis. There could be many other structural reasons. For instance, my gut says that the poverty is increasing even though the growth is good because the balance of trade for the USA has worsened significantly ever since the global trade took off [1] right around 1975, just at the beginning of the &quot;decline&quot; that this article talks about. So if someone in China is willing to do your job for $2&#x2F;day, your wages are going to go down even as the investors benefit from increases in profits of the businesses manufacturing more in China. I wish the author had done at least a tiny bit of analysis, rather than spouting opinions based on inanities like &quot;the tide lifts all boats&quot;. In this case, the boats of the poor are slowly sinking to the level of global wages for any given job.<p>[1] <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/united-states-balance-of-trade.png?s=ustbtot&amp;d1=19500101&amp;d2=20141231" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.tradingeconomics.com&#x2F;charts&#x2F;united-states-balance...</a>
JohnDoe365almost 11 years ago
Simple answer: Growth was primarily for the already rich, leaving those in poverty behind.<p>It&#x27;s not necessarily that the underprivileged got poorer, it&#x27;s more that they didn&#x27;t grow, which results in a virtual gap still widening.
outside1234almost 11 years ago
A rising boat in the economy also raises the bar in terms of costs. Just think of what has happened in San Francisco - huge increase in wealth also has lead to a huge increase in costs.
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NoPiecealmost 11 years ago
Growth is only one of hundreds of factors that affect poverty. Looking at only one factor without considering others is misleading. Poverty rates have been steady in the face of the disintegration of the family unit - perhaps growth is what is keeping it from skyrocketing? Unless you know what poverty would have been with no growth or negative growth, you can&#x27;t measure and make the assumption that growth isn&#x27;t positively impacting poverty.
sharemywinalmost 11 years ago
This article is comparing apples to orgies(it was in my spell check so I went with it). Since most of the growth in the US economy over the last few decades has been from globalization you would need to look a poverty levels for the areas we outsourced most of the manufacturing jobs to.
wnevetsalmost 11 years ago
Just have to wait longer for the trickle down to reach everyone else.