Some people are so much luckier than others because nobody writes articles about Bob Jones, the failed actor, even though the Bob Joneses outnumber the James Garners by orders of magnitude.<p>I'm now convinced survivor bias needs to be taught in kindergarden and every year thereafter.
I rather like the Techzing guys' take on this, called "luck surface area," because it tracks with my experience and is actually weaponizable in a way that "be more observant" is not.<p><a href="http://www.codusoperandi.com/posts/increasing-your-luck-surface-area" rel="nofollow">http://www.codusoperandi.com/posts/increasing-your-luck-surf...</a><p>If you for some reason want to get into a guild protected by a scouting system, then your priorities should be a) identifying what the scouts are looking for and getting good at it and b) getting in front of as many scouts as possible as often as possible.<p>There exist many opportunities which HNers want which resemble "a guild protected by a scouting system" if you squint at them, by the way.
Perhaps instead of "fortune favors the bold," Virgil should have written "fortune favors the observant." I consider myself extremely lucky in life, but reading this article, I'm recognizing just how much of my luck has been a direct result of my being bold, highly observant, or both. Great piece.
People who believe life is not fair and nothing will go their way, will always find reasons not to act. People who believe good things are going to happen to them will always take action and have more luck.<p>In other words, the more chances you take the luckier you get. Life is a numbers game.
Hero worship + survivor bias + "I did it all myself" autobiographies = "there's no such thing as luck, it's all hard work".<p>Hey, is there anyone here who was born in a first world country, grew up speaking the world's pre-eminent language, was born to parents in the richest 1% of the world population, grew up eating an ample supply of extremely nutritious food, and received a first-rate education while still a child? Anyone here like that?
It turns out that about half of all people are luckier than the median. And ~2.5% are two sigma luckier than that.<p>It's a weighted random number generator. Some people make their own luck, and some have luck thrust upon them. Some people work hard and never get lucky.<p>Obligatory XKCD applies here too: <a href="http://xkcd.com/904" rel="nofollow">http://xkcd.com/904</a>
Sometimes what people call luck may be observation, preparation, positioning or things of this nature....yes, that's true.
These are things that can be controlled. I'm sure we have all met people who believe they have simply gotten unlucky while it's obvious to the outside observer that their actions resulted in the consequence they consider bad luck.<p>But, there is an element of random chance that exists outside our control and always will. This is what I call real luck and there isn't any use in trying to explain "why" because there is no "why" that we can understand. It's just a flip of the dice from our perspective. These kind of articles should really differentiate and stop lumping behavior in with luck. They aren't the same.
> James had a reason to be relaxed. He and his brothers grew up in a home of mental, physical and sexual abuse. ... If that wasn’t terrible enough, James grew up during The Depression in Oklahoma, meaning he, his family, friends and neighbors battled things like the Dust Bowl. ... James didn’t worry about much because nothing could be as bad as the life he had already lived.<p>Considering this is a crucial step in the thesis, I would like to see some evidence that this correlation (between a miserable childhood and lack of anxiety in adulthood) actually exists. It might <i>sound</i> rational to look back over your life, realize that the worst parts are probably over, and thus not worry about the present or future, but I highly doubt this is how most people actually behave.
This is a topic I have been thinking about quite a bit. here are my thoughts:<p>Good and bad things happen to all people. When a good thing happens, you can recognize the opportunity and seize it, or you can ignore it. The article mentions attributes this to attentiveness, and that is surely part of it. I also tend to attribute it to a mixture of intelligence and fortitude. If a person is a go-getter and is intelligent, he will make more out of fortunate situations than their counterparts. On the other hand, when bad things happen, "lucky" people tend not to fixate on them and work on forgetting them.<p>If you agree with me at this point, the next part is just a numbers game. If you are the type of person who always takes the same route to work, always eats at the same restaurant, goes to the same part, and vacations in the same spots, your chances of anything (good or bad) happening to you are limited. If you do diversify, take new roads, discover new places, and meet new people, you increase the number of things happening.<p>So in general, people who are positive, go-getters, and like to vary their routines and people they interact with will be considered luckier than the rest.
Best post on luck, similar to this one, is by Paul Buchheit, "Serendipity finds you" - <a href="http://paulbuchheit.blogspot.com/2010/10/serendipity-finds-you.html" rel="nofollow">http://paulbuchheit.blogspot.com/2010/10/serendipity-finds-y...</a><p>And the best book IMO is by Michael J. Mauboussin, "The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Sports, Business, and Investing" - <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Success-Equation-Untangling-Business-Investing/dp/1422184234" rel="nofollow">http://www.amazon.com/Success-Equation-Untangling-Business-I...</a><p>Way better than Nassim Nicholas Taleb's work, he's got his head up his ass way too much and makes too many hyperbolic remarks.
Isn't there a basic math aspect to this?<p>Everything like looks, basic intelligence, rhythm, musical ability, sportsmanship are
distributed among people according to a (mostly) uniform distribution.<p>I would believe you can say the samething about luck.<p>Now don't get the wrong idea that I advocate people to be bums waiting for the "luck" to happen to them. Not everybody who works their ass off(while being smart) is successful.
We can quote a lot of examples from history to see this isn't the case.<p>And then there are people like Kardashians, who got to where they are, by what?
I remember reading somewhere that the question, 'Why are you lucky?' is used by companies during interviews. The question is supposed to say a lot about a person' attitude, self-confidence, self-worth, etc... The conclusion was why would anyone want to work with someone who perceives themselves as being unlucky. (Does anyone have a link to this article?)<p>Has anyone had to answer this question during an interview? Do you think it's a question worth asking?
Tangential to this article, but chance events which effect an individual's life circumstances tend to be subject to feedback loops, where more of the same become more likely, in the sense that someone in bad circumstances (possibly partly attributable to bad "luck") has an increased range and likelihood of events that could make those circumstances worse. Same story with beneficial events, mutatis mutandis.
I can relate to this somewhat. My grandmother always said I was lucky in life, and joked that if I walked up to a bus stop then three buses would turn up. I do consider myself to be observant to the point of distraction (I am also forgetful, lacking common-sense, and lazy).<p>Of course, I've not measured just how observant I am against anyone else, and it's just a hunch, so I could be talking shit. Enjoyed the article!
See also: last month's discussion of the <i>Commencement address by Bill and Melinda Gates</i> <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7954266" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7954266</a>