Let's not reinvent the wheel and use a framework that has been developed since the seventies. Anderson's ACT-R framework is based on cognitive theories and models, and can deliver pretty accurate results.<p>For a more user-friendly tool, take a look at CogTool. You can build or import a prototype UI, create tasks (sets of actions: click this, type that), and let the software evaluate or automatically optimize the interface. Last time I checked they used ACT-R as the cognitive engine, so the results should be accurate.
A neat idea, AI rules applied to UI design. But some the suggested costs are a bit harsh. Of course these are just suggestions.
I'm looking for this to be applied on our daily UI's and compare them.