Ok, you're stuck in an airport and bored. You flip out your 4.7" or 5.5" phone. Can you spend an hour or more playing with it, consuming content, even doing work? Yes you can.<p>Now, you're stuck in an airpot and bored. You keep your phone in your pocket and stare at your watch with a 38mm screen. Can you imagine spending an hour or two interacting with and consuming content on this thing?<p>These watches deliver the information density of WAP feature phones with interactive models that are not much different (scroll wheel), plus panning and zooming on a tiny screen.<p>The people projecting the launch of the 2007 era iPhone as an industry defining moment that's going to kick off whole new app business models I think are extrapolating without thinking about it.<p>These devices are primarily best suited for sensors, and for information radiation tasks: notifying you of information and allowing quick response or dismissal.<p>But a 300Mah "smart" device with a 38mm screen being something you're going to spend a lot of time downloading apps and using "on the device itself" (and not on the iPhone) I think is too far of an extrapolation.<p>Maybe I'm wrong and this will be claim chowder thrown in my face in a few years, but to me, the trend towards bigger screens on phones is a perfectly example of why these watches will always be limited.<p>Humans are visual creatures, and a device that has the screen size and interactivity of a virtual tamagotchi is a fashion accessory toy, not something we will build our whole life around like mobile phones and tablets.
I think the problem is that when you talk to "watch guys", they're all after a very specific aesthetic and functional goal. But that market is extremely small and self selecting.<p>Meanwhile, the mass market watch is something very different (and nearly extinct after the cell phone display accomplished the same goals).<p>So let's learn from two wildly successful watch brands in the 90s:<p>- The information density on the Apple Watch display more comparable to something like the Timex Ironman watches than a mechanical watch. Apple also implies their watch can 'take a lickin' with their sapphire display and completely encased motherboard design.<p>- The ability to customize the bands and face designs is in line with Swatch in the 90s. People will likely buy several band accessories the same way Swatch's customers bought multiple Swatches.<p>The only thing not mass market about the Apple Watch is it's price.<p>I'm guessing the low end of the product line will fill out the same way the iPhone did. They will keep all the tooling and production the same, but gradually reduce the price to $100 while they work out the software kinks.<p>But in the end, the product will be amazingly successful because it has the DNA of amazingly successful predecessors.
The only thing that is "wrong" so far is the price for the average user, but so was the iPod, the iPhone, and my beloved MacBook Air. Give price a few years and it will be a mass market $99 (nano) $199 (standard) $299 (pro/luxury).<p>So far there are 2 smart watches that have nailed the design the Moto 360 and the Apple Watch. The rest have a ways to go.<p>A smart watch has to function pretty well as a nice looking fashion accessory before it ever is going to do anything else useful.
Most of the top shelf watches are going to be fine. It's the Casio, Seiko and Swatches of the world that are going to be in trouble. As is every fitness tracker or health monitor.<p>But the best quote for me is this one:<p>"In the future though I see a risk: a generational fracture. The old people, you and me, sticking to the good old mechanical watches and the young people sticking to digital watches - their comfort zone."
I see this being moderately successful for apple. This is probably one of the first product launches that I saw where I thought all the work they did was cool, but just can't see myself ever wearing one of these. In fact I stopped wearing watches in general because I had a smartphone pocket watch. The less jewelry I can have, the better...
I find the most interesting thing about this article is the writer - Gassee. I am curious what the opinion on him is from current Apple employees and Apple watchers. Has time improved or hurt his reputation?