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How real US economy collapse is?

11 pointsby knivetsover 10 years ago
I see a lot of articles and interviews from economists who are constantly repeating that the US collapse is inevitably coming in the next years. So the question is pretty simple, what is your thought about all this hype?

4 comments

seanccoxover 10 years ago
I&#x27;m taking your use of &quot;collapse&quot; too literally, probably. I do expect a decline and possible deflation.<p>Several troubling indicators exist: - US employment rates are only now on par with pre-2008 crisis levels - Current new job creation tends to be in low-income employment - Margin debt in equities has been touching historic highs - Household debt, particularly among new graduates, is also at or approaching historic highs - Oil and other commodities prices are falling, representing declining demand for goods created with such resources - Political risk is rising and US capacity to deal with it effectively is, in my estimation, limited<p>Taken alone, these are all concerning indicators. Taken together, they have prompted economists and, recently, the IMF to issue strong warnings about exposure to equities and the upcoming US economic climate.<p>However, I wouldn&#x27;t say this constitutes a near-term &quot;collapse&quot;. The US will likely go into recession, or stagnate for the coming two or three years. Much of the growth in the past six years has been on the back of Federal Reserve management, so when the support ends, the economic cycle will continue a downward course. This in turn will make it cheaper to resume manufacturing in the US, compared to other countries, and production of a number of new technologies and components being developed now (solar energy, semiconductors, autonomous vehicles) may grow in the US, leading to wider growth and recovery. US infrastructure is also due for a makeover, so programs investing in the restoration of roads and bridges will also lead to improved employment and growth.<p>Of course, several of these factors require government action, rather than trust in market actors, so it&#x27;s really a matter of personal politics whether you expect collapse, decline, or growth. Still, as I pointed out, the indicators are difficult to ignore. I personally pulled a lot of cash out of equities and decided to build a cash base to insulate me from a stock market correction and provide liquidity for either buying after a correction, or investing in real estate. Or maybe I&#x27;ll be able to get a boat on the cheap... always wanted a boat. All of this is to say, you can&#x27;t predict the future, but I&#x27;m expecting a decline and I&#x27;ve created options for myself to deal with what I expect.
sbtover 10 years ago
(1) Check whether the economist peddling this view incidentally has a lot of gold he needs to unload, or is running a shop or fund for gold.<p>(2) Check whether the economist peddling this view incidentally is funded by the Russian government (e.g. works for RT) or a similar entity interested in pushing up US treasury yields.<p>(3) Check whether the economist peddling this view has been repeating the call for a collapse bi-weekly since the Carter administration. A clock is right twice a day after all.
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JSeymourATLover 10 years ago
Confirmation Bias Overload from Forbes...23 Charts Prove That Stocks Are Heading For A Devastating Crash<p><a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/07/01/these-23-charts-prove-that-stocks-are-heading-for-a-devastating-crash/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.forbes.com&#x2F;sites&#x2F;jessecolombo&#x2F;2014&#x2F;07&#x2F;01&#x2F;these-23...</a>
hectyover 10 years ago
pertly short but it quiet off .will be having big decline in job.s car house. those 3 plus some small tech bubbles. plus are us wary monger trying go to syrea ny nip lie he been trying work up noting that plus some ethic probems with sheech and veiws of some event like how some conopery kown some wastin realy live to fund warlord prop them a big bogy man sadly in cases as I seen over yr i don&#x27;t personaly care for the Birgs banks ecmoicaly can&#x27;t be ingoerd in realy. to ware big amto infsine an hit as end restal but bobbles be pushed . that wa i&#x27;m personaly saying out risky assist right now. one housing go back down my think about buy but the buyrs probemly won&#x27;t thare for long bit of time.
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