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Driving in Circles: The autonomous Google car may never actually happen

4 pointsby trevordixonover 10 years ago

1 comment

ryan_j_naughtonover 10 years ago
I absolutely agree that autonomous vehicles are not at all ready for primetime right now, but this article doesn&#x27;t understand the implications of Moore&#x27;s Law and the rate that AI is improving as a result of this exponentially increasing computing power.<p>Specifically, this quote: &quot;To be able to handle the everyday stresses and strains of the real driving world, the Google car will require a computer with a level of intelligence that machines won&#x27;t have for many years, if ever.&quot;<p>If processing power is doubling every 18 months (which is has consistently for the past 100 years and looks poised to continue), then this statement is nonsense.<p>This article about computer vision gives a good understanding of progress in AI: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;bits.blogs.nytimes.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;08&#x2F;18&#x2F;computer-eyesight-gets-a-lot-more-accurate" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;bits.blogs.nytimes.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;08&#x2F;18&#x2F;computer-eyesight-g...</a><p>Computer vision is doubling in accuracy almost every years (due in large part to exponentially increasing computing power). Similar trends are occurring in natural language processing, robotics, etc.<p>I would trust Sergey Brin&#x27;s ability to forecast how advances in computing power will enable such technologies far more than some non-technical journalist. I think Amara&#x27;s Law sums this up nicely: &quot;We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run&quot;<p>Thus, driverless cars may not be ready in the next couple years. But to then conclude they will never be ready is ridiculous.