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Housing markets: The spectre haunting San Francisco

155 pointsby mblakeleabout 10 years ago

16 comments

wozniackiabout 10 years ago
The top-voted comment for the same piece in the Economist explores the rent-seeking behavior of SF landlords, the origins and the conditions that gave rise to Prop 13 in the first place and proposes a set of (albeit, I admit, a bit far-fetched) solutions:<p><pre><code> I am one of these SF oligarchs, and I benefit from high rents of both types. Nevertheless, I have long called for an end to the rent-seeking. To me, the problem started when the boomers of old voted themselves two enormous market distortions over 30 years ago. Proposition 13 was sold as a means of keeping granny in her home, but it does not particularly benefit the elderly, the sick, or the needy. It benefits land owning incumbents (like me) at the expense of everyone else. Kill it. Start with the grotesque subsidy for commercial property, and then phase out the residential subsidy. Not to be outdone, SF renters voted themselves a rent control ordinance. This also does not particularly benefit the elderly, the sick, or the needy. Like Prop 13, it benefits one thing only - incumbency. I know fairly wealthy 50-somethings who have rented apartments for decades, and now pay a third or a quarter of market rates thanks to rent control. They keep these now as pied-a-terres, while they own comfortable homes in Marin or the wine country. For each one of these old renters, there are ten smart ambitious young people desperate to contribute new creativity and energy into the community if they could just find a room. Only the wealthiest of these can compete for the few remaining market rate units, and they must pay plenty of both kinds of rent, to people like me. This may be seem like daydreaming, but I hope Governor Brown and SF can someday create a grand bargain. Kill Prop 13 AND rent control with the stroke of a pen. As for overall supply and demand, I would support a state law that creates 1 - an estimate of statewide population growth 2 - a requirement that every municipality periodically rezone to accommodate a portion of that growth proportional to its current size; or 3 - pay another municipality to take its share This would create something like a reverse cap and trade system to manage the supposed externalities of growth. This way, NIMBY cities would have to pay growth-friendly cities, and NIMBY voters would have to pay for their selfish rent-seeking behavior. Who knows? There might even be less of it. [1] </code></pre> [1] <a href="http://www.economist.com/comment/2358176#comment-2358176" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.economist.com&#x2F;comment&#x2F;2358176#comment-2358176</a>
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avn2109about 10 years ago
&gt;&gt; &quot;Maybe we simply come up with better ways to build and design cities...&quot;<p>Reading that, I can&#x27;t help but think that the canonically best methods for how to &quot;build and design cities&quot; have been pretty well understood for decades [0], if not much longer [1]. We in America have just been doing it wrong on purpose for quite a while (perhaps in order to goose suburban construction and automobile sales?) So the problem isn&#x27;t lack of knowledge-how, but rather one of political organization to wrest control of the built environment from the groups and organizations that presently control it.<p>[0] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Death_and_Life_of_Great_American_Cities" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;The_Death_and_Life_of_Great_Ame...</a> [1] <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8090190" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=8090190</a>
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grundprinzipabout 10 years ago
Something that is (typically) left out in these articles about how expensive rent in SF is, is that even for tech folks with rather high income the city becomes too expensive as soon as you have family. It might be ok to pay 2.5k per bedroom when you&#x27;re single, but when you pay an additional 1.5k per child in daycare perspective changes.<p>In my opinion, if the trans-bay (e.g. Oakland to San Mateo) and around-the-bay (Berkeley - SJ) public transport would be reasonable in terms of time, things could normalize easier. It could take some pressure of the rent market as more opportunities could be found in other places.
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mc32about 10 years ago
By San Francisco, I suspect they mean the San Francisco Bay area. While building in SF proper would decrease rents there, we can&#x27;t have everyone who wants to move to the Bay Area live in San Francisco proper.<p>Keeping this in mind, SF proper has a natural and inherent economic rent. So there is only so much pressure more building could relieve in SF proper. That said, I don&#x27;t think many people would have much issue with being able to afford a place in San Mateo, Mountain View or San Jose, even Fremont. The problem is the whole bay area is averse to build up. So the only current option for those not able to afford the housing, is to commute two hours each way --South from Gilroy, East from Livermore&#x2F;Tracy, northeast Coco county, etc. or doubling, tripling up and sharing rent. But that&#x27;s not an option for many families.<p>It&#x27;d be physically difficult to have more than 6 million people living in San Francisco, no matter what density we built. So there would be some limit, just not the current approximate 800 odd thousand. The solution is to have an integrated Bay Area plan to accommodate as many people as the area can support. We must also keep in mind the ecological impact of sustaining more people in a semi arid region so perhaps desalination plants to offset water demand. Most of all, a regional government capable of making hard decisions rather than one which gives in to boisterous interest groups (rent control, height &amp; shade restrictions, prop 13, and the adversity to pubic transit.
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epicureanidealabout 10 years ago
Why doesn&#x27;t someone raise a VC fund to build another Silicon Valley somewhere else? I personally don&#x27;t think it involves that much magic. Just build a brand new giant university in a relatively cheap place where you&#x27;ve bought up a ridiculous amount of land. Hire a bunch of Ivy League professors to teach there and establish departments. Market heavily. Around the university, build tons of housing for students. Further out, mixed office parks and all the goodies that people like about SF... lots of selection of food, drink, culture, etc. and pay up front so that a reasonable percentage of this is there before anybody shows up. Throw in some partnerships with big name companies and some VC firms to locate some startups there.<p>Expensive, yes. Profitable, I would think so. Sign me up to live there when it&#x27;s built. I&#x27;d love to work for a similar salary and save a good 30% of it per year (while still leaving healthy profit margins for the investors).<p>Note to downvoters: You do realize that the US government essentially provided this sort of start to Silicon Valley right, and that after that there were a couple now-billionaire real estate investors who provided a lot of the office space?
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gdubsabout 10 years ago
A lot of focus on zoning and new construction limits when the housing crises comes up -- but what about foreign investment? I&#x27;d be curious to hear an argument over residency requirements. It&#x27;s very appealing for a foreign investor to park their cash in real estate. The more that gets bought up and remains unoccupied, the tighter the market, and the more that prices continue to rise...
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caseyf7about 10 years ago
SF has felt unbearably constrained before. Then 2001 happened and there were tumbleweeds on 101. The people that were left had dozens of friends that left. Tech is fundamentally stronger this time around, but not by that much. Everyone is talking about the supply and demand of housing, but we also need to consider the supply and demand of six figure jobs.
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jmckibabout 10 years ago
This is one of the most interesting parts of the article to me, but it&#x27;s not mentioned until the very end.<p><i>On the other hand, if San Francisco zoning mostly deflects away non-techies who add to San Francisco congestion without adding much to its tech-centre synergies, then San Francisco&#x27;s regulations may be reinforcing its status as technological leader.<p>That leaves technology as the saving grace. Maybe we invent really good holodecks, which make it much less critical to actually be in San Francisco. Maybe we invent teleportation, laws of physics be damned. Maybe we simply come up with better ways to build and design cities, which minimise the real or perceived downsides to residents of new building.</i>
ubasuabout 10 years ago
Previous discussion:<p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7602740" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=7602740</a><p>Article is from 2014
iolothebardabout 10 years ago
If they&#x27;d get rid of the ridiculous rent control, that would help a lot on both sides.<p>When I moved out there I considered buying a 3 story home out by Ocean Beach. Then to afford it renting out 2 of the 3 floors. After doing some risk analysis (researching the legal aspects) there was no way I could do that and expect to not get burned in a multitude of ways.<p>So it creates this really shady market for illegal rentals (you have to drive around to find them) and an adversarial way of living in this supposed liberal utopia.<p>Not my cup of tea, but I have many friends that love living in the city.
ThrustVectoringabout 10 years ago
Land-value taxes would be a good part of the solution. Part of the unaffordability of the area is because the network effect of having lots of tech people in one area is extracted twice: once by income taxes on the extra productivity, and again by landlords on the money spent chasing the right to live in a high-productivity area.
Tunecrewabout 10 years ago
To me the huge problem in the Bay Area was (is?) public transportation more than housing prices. This may have changed as I have not lived there in a while, but I just remember the Caltraink, BART, Muny, etc. being horribly disconnected - to live in the city and work in the Valley or vice versa was impossible if you had to rely on public transport, unless you just happened to live or work near the Caltrain on the southeast side of the city.<p>The East Bay, etc. of course was worse to impossible.<p>I could never understand this, given the otherwise progressive nature of the whole area.
matt_morganabout 10 years ago
&quot;You see this in London, for instance, where &#x2F;literally&#x2F; [my emphasis] every house in the city is now being rehabilitated, including those that were rehabilitated last year.&quot;<p>Et tu, The Economist?
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aaronchallabout 10 years ago
Really well written. How do you tell the NIMBY&#x27;s that they&#x27;re the problem? How do we get more construction and improve the lot of everyone, not just the monopolist incumbents?
remarkEonabout 10 years ago
That chart from Thomas Piketty&#x27;s &quot;Capital&quot; has an odd scale at the bottom. The breaks are 40-40-30-30-10-10-20-20-20-20 years, with no adjustment in the scaling.
unclesaammabout 10 years ago
&gt; &quot;If local regulations did not do much to discourage creation of new housing supply [...] Costs would rise [...] And the value to the marginal resident would fall for two reasons. First, the marginal resident will definitionally be someone who is relatively indifferent between living in San Francisco and living somewhere else. Everyone more eager to live there would already have moved in.&quot;<p>That seems wrong. How much someone is willing to pay to live in San Fransisco isn&#x27;t a measure of their &quot;eagerness&quot;, but also a function of wealth. Marginal people in San Fransisco are also poor people who love the city, and are barely able to live there because they spend such a high proportion of their income on costs of living. Relative to their household income, they spend _more_ than someone not marginal to live in the city, but that wouldn&#x27;t be reflected by their migration patterns. They&#x27;re not less eager, just less rich.
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