My prediction with nothing but anecdotes!<p>We have drastically overstated the importance of college the last 20 years, sending far too many people deeper into the education system as opposed to encouraging more trade craft. We are going to end up with a shortage of qualified tradespeople in traditionally blue collar industries such as plumbing, welding, and electrical work here in the near future, especially because "people with college degrees don't do those jobs" (which is a tragic way to view such qualified craft.<p>There are massive numbers of older folks in various trades who are getting set to retire, and there is a clear shortage of people ready to replace them. In other words, it's going to be very, very expensive to hire an electrician here in the near future.<p>We just had our house rewired (old 1940s knob and tube), was chatting with our electrician a bit after the job, and he was talking about how absolutely insane it's been for him the past 3-4 years. He's a younger guy and he said there is already a huge shortage of folks trained and certified to handle a lot of the work needed in the city, causing prices to increase sharply. The boom economy (Seattle) certainly has a lot to do with it, but even in general, he commented about how he just doesn't know that many electricians his age.
In high school, I took all the shop classes - wood, metal and auto. The auto shop teacher was angry with me, told me I didn't belong in shop because I was going to college, and that I was taking the place of some other hypothetical student.<p>My view was I like making things, which is why I wanted to go to college to learn engineering. Those shop classes wound up helping me a lot in my engineering work. I've known engineers who've never used a machine tool in their life, and frankly their work is crippled as a result.<p>See the book "Herman the German" by Neuman for a similar viewpoint.
Not everyone can weld.<p>Welding is a difficult skill to do well. Anyone can become a crappy welder in a few hours. Tack welding some sheet metal to a frame is not hard. Being able to weld two pipes into a liquid-tight T-connection stronger than the pipes is a skill beyond most working welders. That level of skill may take years to acquire. The welders who make the big bucks are the ones who can do that.<p>(I've tried TIG welding. I suck.)
I have family who are Union pipe-fitters.<p>Times have been good for the past few years due to fracking and (here in the Midwest) refurbishment of many nuclear powerplants.<p>The fracking boom is probably over though and I believe most of the nuclear powerplant work came as plants built in the 70s reached EOL.<p>I don't see any sort of blossoming of welding in this country. Production welding is robots or offshore and has been for a long time. Same with shipbuilding. There's always architectural work but that's been pretty moribund for some time now. Industrial work is highly cyclical.
If you're interested in welding but don't know where to start, here's a couple of good resource:<p><a href="http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/04/16/unlock-your-inner-mr-t-by-mastering-metal/" rel="nofollow">http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/04/16/unlock-your-inner-...</a><p><a href="http://www.makershed.com/products/make-primer-welding-pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.makershed.com/products/make-primer-welding-pdf</a>
If you happen to be a welder reading this, either in training or in work, I have a small seed to plant: Practice best practices for 5 years and then come to the developing world. Practical, visionable, safety-first, disciplined skills are what moderately developed countries are shouting for, and you can call your price.
Something I posted on Reddit:<p>"I would argue that this is very stupid advice and it enables people that really don't want to study hard.<p>An educated workforce is of crucial importance, be it an educated welder, lawyer or engineer. Educated people find it easier to adapt to new economic needs and it's far easier for an engineer to do a welder's work than a welder to do an engineer's work. And yes, I'm an engineer and wouldn't even blink if I had to get my hands dirty.<p>There's also the part where educated people have a more fulfilling life, grater freedom, more options, broader intellectual horizons.<p>I see a lot of people around me that decry the lack of good tradesmen.On the other hand, my dad is a great electrician and can't get a decent, comfortably paid job. You know why? Because the need isn't there, because brains are more productive than brawn."
I am a developer, but I encouraged one of my sons to sign up for welding school. I am trying to get my other son, who didn't want to go to college and has a crappy call center job, to sign up too. It looks to me like a good way to earn a living for someone who doesn't want to go to college or can't afford it -- not everyone wants to acquire massive debt before launching their career. One or two semesters at a tech school is far easier to pay for than four or more years of college. It's costing me about $6k to pay for my son's classes.
However, NIOSH has concluded that welders can be harmed by welding smoke even when the
concentration
s of the individual
components are well below OSHA permissible exposure
limits.<p><a href="http://www.afscme.org/news/publications/workplace-health-and-safety/fact-sheets/pdf/Welding-Hazards-AFSCME-fact-sheet.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.afscme.org/news/publications/workplace-health-and...</a>
This isn't new; Portland Community College had a welding department back in 2000. Many different buildings across campus had display cases and installations of metal sculptures and signs produced by that welding department.