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Hunter Becomes the Prey - shopping is broken

70 pointsby dan_simover 15 years ago

17 comments

SwellJoeover 15 years ago
In the enterprise world, this is known as "lead generation", and these queries for specific items would be "qualified leads" (meaning the buyer has specifically expressed interest in the type of product you're selling). It is a very profitable segment of the industry. That said, there are an awful lot of problems bringing the model to consumer goods.<p>The instant gratification problem that naval pointed out in the comments...Most folks have a buying process something like: Want, shop around for a few minutes to a few hours, buy, have it within a week. Sometimes it includes going to see it in person at a brick and mortar. Waiting for a bunch of people (most of whom will be spammers) to submit proposals, is tedious and boring...like being at work. A lot of enterprise product buyers even try to avoid that process. I have a Dell small business sales rep, who usually gets me better prices than the website, but I rarely go through him because the process is tedious. It wastes more of my time than the money I save. I imagine if I were buying dozens or hundreds of machines, it would begin to be worth it.<p>The spam problem is always underestimated by people who don't deal with it professionally. By the time Scott Adams sees the spam problem in his own life, it has already made it through several anti-spam preventative systems. This is a new way to spam, and will require new ways to fight it. I suspect one of the lead generation models would have to be used...as dpatru suggested, vendors paying a small amount to be displayed to the user would be a good path. A vendor would probably happily pay a few pennies, or even dollars, to reach someone that they honestly believe would be a good fit for their product. In the enterprise world, you only need a few vendors, a few buyers, and very expensive products, to make the model profitable. In the consumer space, you need <i>all</i> the vendors to make consumers really happy, and an awful lot of consumers to make it worthwhile for vendors to monitor and respond to leads.<p>It's an interesting take on how vendors in this highly distributed world can find out what people really want. Chinese manufacturers make almost everything we buy these days...but what items people need and want, fashion, trends, perception of quality and beauty, are different across cultures.<p>But, I don't think it will win out over automated recommendation and search engines. Automated tools will get better (and have gotten dramatically better in the past ten years) at helping folks find the right items. Amazon is already pretty darned good at it...I <i>usually</i> know which of a handful of items in a genre I want within a few minutes of beginning my search. At worst I read a few reviews, and then know. The Amazon model has the benefit of having <i>other customers</i> telling me about the products...I have a deep mistrust of companies telling me about their products. Some are honest and tell you exactly what you need to know, but most are hyperbolic to the point of being nonsensical.<p>In other words, this is one of those ideas that sounds neat, and is a really interesting thought exercise, but I really doubt I would <i>ever</i> use such a service, as a buyer or a seller.
Hoffover 15 years ago
Adams is describing how marketing (tries to) work. Marketing seeks to identify customers.<p>In a manner of consideration, Adams is seeking to acquire better and more targeted search results, or skills in searching for products or services. Google Adwords tries to offers something close. But the Googlers are not very good at this level of targeting. (Yet?)<p>As for specifically contacting buyers, that's expensive for commodity gear. And what happens when you find and proffer a product to a customer, and the customer turns around and purchases that product from the lowest bidder; if you can't automate this and keep the customer acquisition costs (very) low, a business ends up a variant of the Brick-and-Mortar cost differential.<p>The middle ground - some form of a trusted concierge or consulting service or search service - seems to be one of the few potentially approaches from both directions; back to what amounts to a (trusted) middleman in the purchasing process.<p>And a concierge service has inherent costs.
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andrewljohnsonover 15 years ago
The only problem with broadcasting my info to a vendor for some patio furniture is that next week they are going to call me about some nice tiki torches. Then, I'm going to get some snail mail from their buddy the BBQ salesman, and his buddy the meat vendor will come a knockin' too.<p>Then, one of those guys is going to sell my information to totally unrelated businesses, so I'll start get calls from people trying to sell me auto warranties. I'll get endless catalogs from all their combined efforts, and I'll never be able to read email again, because there will be too much spam in it.<p>Finally, I will end up subscribed to some porno websites I never heard of, and since I don't want to explain that to my girlfriend, I guess I'll just keep using the canvas folding chairs that I have.
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mrshoeover 15 years ago
I imagine the founders of Readbeacon (<a href="http://www.redbeacon.com/" rel="nofollow">http://www.redbeacon.com/</a>) will be happy to read this post.<p>The first challenge I can think of for someone creating a service like this is spam. If I put out a request for patio furniture, how does your service prevent all sorts of other vendors from replying to my request and trying to sell me something other than patio furniture?
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SandB0xover 15 years ago
So users want a list of items, without massive duplication (many shops selling the same toaster), while at the same time knowing the best price for each item. Seems Amazon have this nailed with their multiple retailer options.<p>Maybe I'm being cynical, but for the site he describes you'd get a whole ecosystem of "recommendation experts" or similar who will auto-spam replies on ToasterCo's behalf, and you'd also end up with standard keywords emerging, once people start to find words that correlate well with good replies.<p>It would probably work best in areas where companies sell their products direct, and are small enough to give personalised replies. Large corporations would surely give their sales people a set of model answers and you would end up with replies indistinguishable from spam.
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techiferousover 15 years ago
"www.answers.yahoo.com is a step in the right direction"<p>I never, ever expected to come across this phrase spoken seriously.
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frankusover 15 years ago
Google cache link, as it's down for me right now:<p><a href="http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache:http://dilbert.com/blog/entry/hunter_becomes_the_prey/" rel="nofollow">http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache:http://dilbert.com/blog...</a>
nzmsvover 15 years ago
The point about too many choices is just not true. I have a few online stores I purchase from. And eBay. Sometimes Amazon, but me living in Canada means that it's mostly restricted to books.<p>The average online store is so badly put together that it is the equivalent of shopping in a dirty dark alley in terms of confidence :) So, I don't. I find I keep going back to the same stores over and over. eBay wins because there is a buyer protection scheme in place.<p>The the point about thousands of stores to purchase from only holds for items costing less than I'd care about losing.
jordanfover 15 years ago
The problem of too many product offerings (the paradox of choice / analysis paralysis) is something I'm trying to address with my startup Kallow.<p>The issue with Adams' solution (which may work for some) is that customers sometimes don't know exactly what they want, and have a hard time describing it, especially when it comes to things like personal electronics. You are essentially asking them to design a product for themselves, which sounds kind of cool, but will leave a lot of people confused.
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ianferrelover 15 years ago
I respect Adams' opinion generally, but I don't understand why he thinks the buyer would get the sorts of responses the buyer wants. Why wouldn't the buyer just get spam (or, at best, directed advertising of the sort that Google already has)?<p>If advertisers were able to respond well to the important keywords in his description "easy to clean", "Mediterranean", "amber", "budget", they'd already be doing so with Google ads.
smallblacksunover 15 years ago
Do people really have trouble finding the things they want to buy online? Whenever I do a search for information on any kind of product, I get a ton of ads offering to sell it to me. This seems like a solution in search of a problem.
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heedover 15 years ago
So he's proposing a recommendation system for any/all consumer products.
davidmathersover 15 years ago
Shorter Scott Adams:<p><i>Business idea: beat Google at its own game.</i><p>It's just not going to happen. My approach would be to start with the expensive ad-hoc shopping services that already work for rich people and figure out how to standardize, commoditize and mass market them.<p>Any idea that has an element of "replace humans with ai" to it is ultimately in direct competition with Google. Which means both that your service will not be more useful than Google and that they will crush you whenever they want to.<p>The path to value, for everyone other than Google and Amazon, is to not replace humans but instead make them more powerful.
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n-namedover 15 years ago
I don't think his proposed solution is logical, he incorrectly assumes people know what they want.
nicoover 15 years ago
That blog post pretty much describes what Needish wants to be: www.needish.com
megamark16over 15 years ago
Darn, BroadcastShopping.com is already taken ;-)
gojomoover 15 years ago
I expect Hunch could easily grow this way: a mixture of introductory questions to assess your purchase interests and priorities, leading to an increasing proportion of sponsored 'questions' that are offers/pitches tuned to your revealed preferences.