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How to Build a Unicorn and Walk Away with Nothing

341 pointsby whbkabout 10 years ago

22 comments

idlewordsabout 10 years ago
I find this article much more interesting as a cultural snapshot than a cautionary tale for founders. $20 million in investment before creating a minimal product, $200 million to find out users won't pay for what you made, and everything propped up by a shell game around online ads. The assumption that the founder of this should have walked away with a fortune is just the cherry on top.
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simi_about 10 years ago
And yet nobody sees a problem in creating stupid crap for stupid users and expecting to ~break even~ get rich selling ads.<p>This reminds me of a recent article [0], where this line stood out:<p>&gt; “We just introduced an emoji feature and comments are there so you can have conversations, and there’s more stuff in collaborative streaming that we’re going to introduce,” he added.<p>&quot;We found a new niche and Twitter is trying to bully us out of it, but look, we&#x27;ll have emoji soon. Comments too, and more social stuff. It&#x27;s going to be great!&quot; Sorry to cherry-pick Meerkat, they&#x27;re actually an OK bunch, but that quote just stuck with me.<p>Add to this silliness how much money&#x2F;interest is garnered by apps like Instagram, Snapchat, WhatsApp (actually, arguably solving a real problem), and it&#x27;s hard to argue we&#x27;re not in a similarly idiotic bubble to the previous one. Of course, this also creates valuable stuff (my favourite recently being Slack), but I&#x27;d be willing to bet that this huge BS-to-usefulness ratio isn&#x27;t sustainable in the long term.<p>0: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;techcrunch.com&#x2F;2015&#x2F;05&#x2F;06&#x2F;meerkat-founder-on-getting-the-kill-call-from-twitter&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;techcrunch.com&#x2F;2015&#x2F;05&#x2F;06&#x2F;meerkat-founder-on-getting-...</a><p>edit: instant downvote - if you don&#x27;t just disagree with my tone, please explain why you think I&#x27;m wrong<p>edit 2: I&#x27;m not saying I have an answer, but at least I tried to pick something that seemed worth doing (I work at Lavaboom, we&#x27;re trying to make encrypted email easy to use - with extra privacy sprinkled on top)
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krampianabout 10 years ago
Of course terms matter, but the example she gives seems somewhat contrived. Particularly this part:<p>&gt;&gt; In the deal, Hooli would invest $200 million for equity while in return the two companies would enter into a business development agreement on the side in which Pied Piper guarantees to spend that money in a massive consumer campaign on Hooli’s ad platform. They float the magic “B” valuation. Richard goes to sleep dreaming of rainbows and unicorns.<p>If you take all that money in with a <i>massive</i> string like that attached (basically no freedom at all to spend it except on one thing), I would think you have only yourself to blame for the result.
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cpercivaabout 10 years ago
Seems to me that the problem here is less one of investment terms and preferences, and more one of <i>wasting $200M on an unsuccessful advertising campaign</i>. If you agree to throw that much money at advertising without having any guarantee that the advertising will yield (enough) results, you deserve to walk away with nothing.
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brianmcconnellabout 10 years ago
There&#x27;s another way to skin this cat. Assume you are not &quot;CEO material&quot;, hire someone who turns out to be a complete fuckup to do it for you because of your self doubt.<p>I saw this happen to a company that basically invented the concept of hosted phone&#x2F;communication services for business, back in the mid 90s. Their competitors are worth billions now. The third rate&#x2F;bully&#x2F;crook CEO the founder hired destroyed, literally, billions in opportunity.<p>(In retrospect the whole company was rotten to the core, so I enjoyed watching their competitor ring the NYSE bell, but if the founder had taken on the task of understanding his own business, this outcome would probably have been avoided).
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methodoverabout 10 years ago
Hm. As an engineer relatively new to the world of entrepreneurship, I find myself not really understanding much of the jargon. (Actually, I think I might understand some - but my confidence in my understanding is low.)<p>It would be cool if there was like, an annotated version of this explaining some of the accounting&#x2F;investing jargon.<p>For example, this passage:<p>Richard attracts Peter, a newly-wealthy budding angel investor, who agrees to put in $1 million as a note with a $5 million cap and a 20% discount.<p>I think this means that Peter is buying part of Richard&#x27;s company for 1 million bucks. He&#x27;s valuing it at 5 million, so that&#x27;s 20% of the company. However, there&#x27;s a discount of 20%... Which is where I get confused. Does this mean that Peter is paying only 800,000, but getting 20%? Probably not, given the context. It probably means he gets 24% of the company, right? (He&#x27;s getting 1.2M worth of shares for the cost of 1M.)
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hackaflockaabout 10 years ago
Great article. Would love a simple, colloquial explanation of the following phrases:<p>* $1 million as a note with a $5 million cap and a 20% discount.<p>* senior liquidity preference of 1x to protect their downside since they feel the valuation is rich<p>* Peter, is stoked that he is getting his $1 million investment converted into roughly 20%<p>* senior 1x liquidation preference<p>* the preference overhang of $211 million<p>* They ask prior investors to recap<p>* the ‘overhang math’.<p>* senior preference and a 2x guarantee.<p>* waterfall spreadsheet
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myth_busterabout 10 years ago
I was wondering whether the<p><pre><code> build a waterfall spreadsheet </code></pre> could be opensourced by this community given that there are lot people here with varied experiences.<p>PS: I found this blog quite informative and the meta meta ref amuses me.
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kensabout 10 years ago
The article says that Richard would have personal liability if the sale didn&#x27;t go through. That doesn&#x27;t make sense to me - can someone explain?<p>Edit: the article says both Richard and the investors would have personal liability, but isn&#x27;t a purpose of a corporation to avoid personal liability?
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poweraabout 10 years ago
If you get $240 million in investments, and then sell the company for $250 million, I fail to see how it was successful (or &quot;building a unicorn&quot;) at all.
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walshemjabout 10 years ago
Why would the CEO Richard be liable for the wages surely that is the company&#x27;s liabilities not his personal one
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sharemywinabout 10 years ago
Not sure the last deal would have even been up to the CEO. a deal like that would probably be a board vote, I would think and you may only have 40% of the vote. also, what if it was the only deal on the table and the trial campaign preformed well. Btw, Forbes called they heard about the deal and your going to be on the cover. And let&#x27;s talk about poor Richard I don&#x27;t he&#x27;s managing an Arby&#x27;s after he ran a billion dolllar company. Probably some kind of senior executive somewhere. Curious if VC would take his calls?
datakerabout 10 years ago
Makes me wonder if building a company still is financially wise.<p>Even if you&#x27;re successful, a prominent well-established career path will probably balance out an average startup exit(assuming there&#x27;s one).
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hmate9about 10 years ago
An interesting exercise is to think about what would have happened if that $200 million spent on advertisement on Hooli campaign gave a positive ROI.<p>Than Richard would be really happy right now.<p>What Richard should have done, is before accepting that $200 million, spend some of his own money on Hooli&#x27;s ad platform to see what it was like, what kind of return they&#x27;re looking at. If its good, take the money. If not, walk away.<p>But of course, it&#x27;s very easy to make the right decision after already knowing the outcome...
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jcofflandabout 10 years ago
Great to see a VC being honest about the business. Richard should have never agreeded to the $200m deal with ad spending strings but I&#x27;m sure deals like this happen all the time. The pressure on an entrepreneur in such situations must be immense. I imagine others with much more experience giving advice but with their own motivations in mind. I could easily see founders such as Richard making decisions in the moment which are obviously bad looking back.
AndrewKemendoabout 10 years ago
So what is the reasonable repeatable way to determine or gauge valuation?<p>From what we have seen it is &quot;Investor A wants X% of B and is willing to pay Z for it&quot; therefore value is the multiple of Z that equals 100%. AkA Whatever someone will pay for it, AkA market prices. Except it&#x27;s rarely a market in the traditional sense as it&#x27;s really ever only a handful of buyers and they value it based on god knows what metrics.<p>Seems flimsy and based on whatever the most recent investor thinks - due diligence best practices aside.<p>We need a standard way to determine valuation so that founders and investors alike can point to something that is based in reality and can&#x27;t be gamed as easily.
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rsp1984about 10 years ago
All the right things have been said in other comments already, however I&#x27;d like to point out that the outcome for Peter, the angel investor is a little unclear from the article. It says:<p>&gt; Peter, while sad about the outcome, has developed a huge syndication following on AngelList and has recently benefitted from an early acquisition that netted him $3 million on a $250k investment. Can’t win them all, but he’s at peace.<p>Assuming the investment was in convertible notes, surely the debt would have converted into shares at the same terms that the VC investment happened, including the liquidation preference. So if the VC gets to take chips off the table so would Peter, I assume?
apiabout 10 years ago
It seems obvious to me that giant valuation means insanely high bar before you see upside. I am a bit skeptical of the idea that it should be as high as possible, since if it&#x27;s fundamentally ridiculous and there&#x27;s no way you will ever live up to it I fail to see how this is in anyone&#x27;s interest.
bshanksabout 10 years ago
Hypothetically, assume a company whose valuation increases roughly geometrically at first, but then levels off at an asymptote, and assume that during the geometric phase the valuation fluctuates by 50% around its trend. Assume that no one knows where the asymptote is. Periodically, there are funding events, during which the company sells stock at a 1x liquidation preference; assume it sells enough stock so that at each funding event, the sum of the liquidation preferences is greater than 50% of its valuation. Consider a funding event that occurs when the valuation happens to be 25% above trend; therefore the liquidation preferences will be greater than 0.625 of the on-trend valuation, and then the next time that the valuation falls to 50% below trend, the sum of those preferences will be greater than the company&#x27;s current valuation. At this point, many of those with liquidation preferences (some of whom may have a short time horizon; or may be risk-averse; or may believe that the current valuation will not rise very much in the future) may strongly prefer selling or liquidating the company immediately, which is at odds with common-stock-holders, who would get nothing in such a liquidation and who would prefer to keep going.<p>Note that in this model, this result occurred not because of mismanagement, but due to the natural and expected fluctuation in market prices, combined with unavoidable uncertainty about which price changes are fluctuations and which are simply &#x27;the new normal&#x27;, combined with the sum of liquidation preferences being comparable in magnitude to the fluctuations in prices, combined with the bad luck of a funding event happening to occur when the valuation was above trend.<p>Is this model reasonable? If so, how should management of such a company approach fundraising? It seems to me that fluctuations are inevitable and that the only thing management could control is how much money they raise at once; if fluctuations are 50% around trend, then management needs to keep the amount of money raised small enough so as to keep the sum of liqudiation preferences well under 1&#x2F;3 of the current valuation (because in that case even if the valuation falls from 50% over trend to 50% under trend, the valuation will still be strictly greater than the sum of liquidation preferences). More realistically, the size of fluctuations would not be known in advance to be 50% but must be estimated. In the article, the valuation fluctuated from $1bil to $250mil, so the fluctuation parameter would be at least (1-x)&#x2F;(1+x) = 250&#x2F;1000 = 4 -&gt; x = 3&#x2F;5 = 60%, and the sum of liquidation prefs &quot;should have&quot; been kept well less than 250&#x2F;1000 = 1&#x2F;4 of the current valuation.
DonGateleyabout 10 years ago
Is there a good text which would make the meaning of all this clear?
nphyteabout 10 years ago
It&#x27;s good to know that the she watched the episode. Has anyone in the valley gone through this or?
jim_grecoabout 10 years ago
Talking your book much? This story is so contrived that it hinges on a comically inept founder taking $200M to solely spend on an advertising campaign on the platform of the person investing it. If this is the best example a VC can offer to cram down valuations then I&#x27;m pretty sure founders are going to keep reaching toward those unicorn valuations.
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