Been oscillating back and forth between these two extremes. (Although any crypto vet has been here in previous cycles.)

I'm just another guy. But I enjoy the debate in this space, and the fact that no other asset class in history has people waking up one day thinking "It's over!" ... only to lay awake in bed, thinking, "I don't own enough! We are SO BACK!"

If anything, even if you're not invested, crypto makes for a fun discussion topic. So let's dance.

Best way to open up the debate for both sides is probably to present my bull and bear case.

BULLISH:

- Lack of negative news (tariffs already priced in/possible resolution with China, Ukraine-Russia war peace talks beginning, inflation under control--for time being)

-Jim Cramer has stopped tweeting about BTC (he's still in love with Palantir -- so my apologies for anyone who has it in their portfolio)

-Sellers running out of coins. ... Been a slow bleed since early-December.

-Funding rates negative for quite awhile.

-Short squeeze/oversold bounce in play -- although this likely only contributes to a short-term gain (5-10% price bump)

-Technical indicators like RSI look good for most major tokens

-Altcoins + Eth immensely oversold. Max pain. Buyer exhaustion.

-Whales manipulating price/accumulating in this range? Charts suggest this is possible, while sellers are keeping the price down (until the next run up). See: Eth shorts.

-Negative sentiment! This goes both ways. In the crypto world, this is part of the game -- exhausting the buyers and shaking them out, weak hands -> strong hands -- and we know price can flip sentiment quickly.

-Institutions/ETFs still major buyers. For now.

BEARISH:

-Lack of positive news (aside from FTX repayments, and even that is debatable ... why would everyone who got dumped on by SBF buy more in the same asset class?)

-MEMECOIN rugs, smh -- Trump. Melania. And the biggest grift we've ever seen in this space, Libra.

-Solana token unlocks (...already priced in, though? Heavy selling recently.)

-Economic data looking a bit more negative recently, suggesting the economy could be cooling off a bit, while inflation remains in the background (with tariffs not helping med/long term).

-Negative sentiment at ATH

-Major tax bill coming due soon. (March often sees a lot of selling bcz of this + end of Q1).

So what do you think, bros? Is this part of the cycle over? Or is it all a smokescreen until the next leg up soon?

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Ask HN: Is crypto making a comeback? Or did memecoins kill this cycle?

Ask HN: Is crypto making a comeback? Or did memecoins kill this cycle?