Some #s.<p>39-45:<p>- US, pop 130m, 40m Gross Tons. ~0.05m GT/m<p>2023:<p>- JP, 125m, 10m GT, ~0.08m GT/m (kind of in decline)<p>- SKR, 51m, 18m GT, ~0.35m GT/m (increasing in value)<p>- PRC, 1400m, 33 GT, ~0.02m GT/m (increasing++ in GT and value)<p>If modern US was serious as efficient as JP or SKR, it can do 30-120m GT per year. Meanwhile PRC casually building about entire 6 year US WW2 ship building program per year (2024 puts it close to 37m GT). But it's not out of question for US to be competitive in a few generations. But also kind of lulz that SKR peacetime ship building is like 7x more efficient than US during WW2.
Other things built quickly: <a href="https://patrickcollison.com/fast" rel="nofollow">https://patrickcollison.com/fast</a><p>I'm surprised this isn't on the list.
The U.S. seems to think it can out manufacture a country like China, or another peer competitor, during a potential war. This does not seem to be the case anymore... That level of American wartime manufacturing just is not possible anymore.<p>Maybe robotics and AI can be combined to close the gap... Its just that all competitors will be able to do that too.<p>Then consider that much of the U.S. aligned shipbuilding happens in places like South Korea. There is no guarantee the U.S. will be able to purchase ships from South Korea during a war in Asia.<p>Then again, surface ships are quickly becoming obsolete with drones and hypersonic missiles.<p>If the U.S. wants to get ahead, they need to build submarine drone carriers as quickly as possible.
The interesting claim in the article is that US ship production was <i>less</i> efficient in terms of man-hours as quantity went up. That's unexpected.
Radical goals, obedient workers, a peaceful environment on the continental, and the necessary industrialization capabilities all worked together to make this seemingly great thing happen.
When I first read, years ago, about how many aircraft carriers the US Navy had during WW2, I was gobsmacked. But then I read how most of them were escort carriers, slow converted merchant ships with just a few planes. The US military currently has a lot of exquisite platforms; what it [mostly] lacks today is mass from cheaper systems.<p>It’d be good if we built more submarines, faster…
Fortunately, these days with environmental law and historical protection the horrors of these shipyards will never again return. Give thanks. Our children won't have to suffer its results.
A friend and I were at the WW2 museum in New Orleans a couple years ago and he said something that really stuck with me. Amazed at an exhibit on wartime manufacturing, he turned to me and said, "This is so unbelievable to me. To think what we accomplished when everyone in the country was pulling in the same direction. There's no way that could happen anymore." I hardly want to glorify warfare, but he has a point. As a young person in our chaotic and ambiguous present day looking back into the haze of the past, there really is something incredibly romantic about the era of war mobilization. Ordinary people had a purpose simply assigned to them, and if nothing else I think it's still the case that people in all eras crave purpose.
The context is that WWIII is basically a foregone conclusion? If there is a hot war between the US and China, that proves that humans aren't fit to control the planet.<p>The only way this makes sense for people is if they are racists deep down and think that humans should compete like ant colonies.<p>Warfare is a total failure of management and society.<p>The human zoos of the future are not going to allow warfare or build up to it.<p>We have instantaneous global communication and translation.