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Not a Luddite fallacy (2011)

40 点作者 cwb将近 10 年前

11 条评论

larsiusprime将近 10 年前
Required reading anytime someone invokes the word &quot;Luddite&quot;: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;Rebels-Against-The-Future-Industrial&#x2F;dp&#x2F;0201407183" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;Rebels-Against-The-Future-Industrial&#x2F;d...</a><p>Enclosure (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Enclosure" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Enclosure</a>) is suspiciously never mentioned whenever the Luddites are invoked. It&#x27;s not as simple as &quot;technology took muh job, rar!&quot; -- it&#x27;s more like &quot;hey, this common land that used to belong to all of us has been forcibly taken away and given to this guy with a factory who now gets to be super productive and take away our livelihoods, but he doesn&#x27;t have to share any of the increased wealth he now enjoys.&quot;<p>Technology undoubtedly increases productivity and wealth. The question is, WHO gets to own that wealth and what gives them a right to it.
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arrrg将近 10 年前
The generalized version of the fallacy (“Labour-saving technologies increase unemployment <i>in general</i> by reducing demand for labour <i>in general</i>.”) may be wrong or not. That’s kind of hard to figure out.<p>However, the micro level version of the fallacy is, I think, not a fallacy at all, but very much true and can be disastrous for a great many individuals: “Labour-saving technologies increase unemployment <i>among people with my qualifications</i> by reducing demand for labour <i>for people with my qualifications</i>.” (The consequence may not be unemployment. The affected people more or less only qualify for jobs where no qualifications are necessary, probably leading to unemployment for some, a reduction in income for others.)<p>Put another way, while the labour market in general may be left intact, the effect on specific individuals may be disastrous. In that context luddites smashing up machines may be entirely rational for them personally, because even though the industrial revolution lifted large swathes of humanity out of poverty (eventually), along the way many individuals had to suffer greatly and it didn’t get better for them personally until they died. Maybe it got better for their kids or grandkids.<p>That’s one reason why thinking about macro level effects is not enough (but there may also be better solutions than smashing up machines, i.e. it may well be possible to get the positive macro level effects over longer time scales while also, through other means, reducing or eliminating poverty or suffering on a micro level).
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mcv将近 10 年前
It&#x27;s not clear why the author thinks it&#x27;s not a fallacy.<p>What bothers me about this sort of discussion, though, is the assumption that we need to work. I want technology to do my job for me, so I can focus on fun stuff. But for that to work, we should change our economic system so we don&#x27;t need to work, or at least not as much.<p>What technology has really done, is not so much take away people&#x27;s jobs, but make capital investment an increasingly large part of productivity, leading all the profits of this increased productivity to end up with the small elite that controls the capital. Look at how much wealth inequality has grown over the past 100 years, particularly in the US.<p>Keynes predicted in the 1930s that due to increased productivity, we&#x27;d all have to work a lot less than we&#x27;re currently doing. He&#x27;s wrong because the benefits of our increased productivity are not distributed equally.<p>In short: we need a basic income. Or something else to ensure that everybody benefits from this.
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mcguire将近 10 年前
&quot;<i>I hope I have been able to convince you that the Luddite fallacy is not a fallacy and that this will have significant economic and social implications.</i>&quot;<p>I&#x27;m sorry, did you actually make an argument? All I could find was some un-supported assertions.
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fredkbloggs将近 10 年前
Let&#x27;s suppose for a moment that we accept the thesis that due to automation, there won&#x27;t be much work for humans in the future.<p>Instead of taking wealth from the smaller number of humans who are creating that wealth and giving it to those who are not, why don&#x27;t we just accept that we don&#x27;t need so many of us any more? Let the extras die off naturally (note to angry skimmers: I SAID NATURALLY) and migrate to a new lower-population equilibrium. There have been a lot of explanations offered for why the world&#x27;s more advanced economies have been seeing lower birth rates for decades, but one rarely reads the most obvious one: people are having fewer children because fewer humans are needed. This isn&#x27;t a problem to be solved, it&#x27;s a boon to future generations.<p>While some resources are created through economic activity driven by humans, others (most notably land, in the form of space between neighbors who desire it, frontiers, the economic viability of wilderness conservation, and of course land for economic purposes) are fixed. If fewer humans can create just as much of the variable stuff while leaving more of the fixed stuff for each one, how is that not better for all? The vast majority of humans, if not literally every last one, will be much wealthier. And that&#x27;s even before we consider the fundamental unfairness of redistribution, or the waste associated with the political and bureaucratic machines it entails.<p>Instead of thinking about how to redistribute the dividends from automation, we should be making sure we won&#x27;t have to. In a given environment, every species has an optimal population. If we alter our environment such that fewer humans can produce the same amount of wealth as more humans, that optimal population has decreased. We need to accept that and adjust to it, not fight it with gimmickry and theft. If (and it&#x27;s a big if) automation is really going to put billions of people out of productive work, then the only sustainable answer to that is fewer people. Embrace it.
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klez将近 10 年前
On the same tone: &quot;Humans need not apply&quot;<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU</a>
brightball将近 10 年前
What I always wonder about with this formula is how many human jobs from the US have been shipped overseas to other humans who cost less? Those jobs are still being done by people, we just aren&#x27;t cost competitive in labor for the mass of unskilled job opportunities.<p>It seems like something like the Fair Tax, where legal citizens get a stipend every month to offset the sales tax against basic needs, that came with a slightly higher stipend to make it more like a basic income, would have the net effect of make low cost labor more affordable and those jobs more viable. It would basically have the effect of doubling minimum wage WITHOUT passing the costs along to the businesses and making labor more expensive.<p>Just makes you wonder if we wouldn&#x27;t be better off finding ways to repatriate the jobs that exist than to worry about the ones that are continually more automated.
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AnimalMuppet将近 10 年前
I think the whole question shows that people are thinking wrong.<p>Think of a society&#x2F;civilization <i>spending</i> people. Oh, we can automate much of agriculture? Great; we don&#x27;t have to spend 90% of our people on growing food. Now we can spend them on factory jobs, and our society becomes better off. Now we don&#x27;t have to spend so many people in factories? That&#x27;s a good thing, too - we can spend those people on more productive things. Again, our society will become better off.<p>There are a couple of ways this could not work out, though. First, there is the social unrest that can happen in the time of transition. Second, we can lose one kind of jobs before we figure out what the new kind is, and so leave a lot of people idle. Third, we could eventually create jobs that are beyond our ability to train the bulk of people to be able to do them.
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joshuaheard将近 10 年前
If automation is providing all your needs, you won&#x27;t need a job.<p>[Edit] Spotted this after reading the article:<p>&quot;Technology has created more jobs than it has destroyed, says 140 years of data&quot;<p>(<a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theguardian.com&#x2F;business&#x2F;2015&#x2F;aug&#x2F;17&#x2F;technology-created-more-jobs-than-destroyed-140-years-data-census" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theguardian.com&#x2F;business&#x2F;2015&#x2F;aug&#x2F;17&#x2F;technology-c...</a>
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Mithaldu将近 10 年前
Oh no, the singularity is coming!
api将近 10 年前
It&#x27;s not here <i>yet</i>, but automation able to fully replace human beings for a huge number of jobs will eventually come. At that point a universal basic income will be the only option other than walling off the majority of humanity in ghettoes. Totalitarian &quot;poverty state&quot; or post-scarcity socialism, take your pick.<p>I say this as a somewhat-former libertarian, and partly out of libertarian sentiment. The totalitarian state that would have to be put in place to enforce widespread poverty in a post-employment era would be significantly less libertarian than the alternative. I imagine something that looks like a cyberpunk noir horror film with drones and scanners and gates everywhere. Since humans do possess empathy, the (few) rich would have to be surveilled and policed as much as the poor; your wealth would be absolutely conditional upon your support of the system. Ultimately the situation is unsustainable and would collapse and probably lead to something even more totalitarian.
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