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Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

322 点作者 superfx将近 10 年前

33 条评论

grellas超过 9 年前
People&#x27;s investment philosophy will vary and tolerance for risk will play a major role in it all.<p>My own view is this, and it is based on a lifetime of having made all the typical mistakes.<p>Steady is the best way to go for your investable funds. That means, go with stocks for a decent segment of your investments but temper this with investments that will help preserve capital when things get rocky. Keep a ratio between the two that is age-appropriate. There is a rule of thumb floating about among advisors that your stock percentage should be 110 minus your age. This may or may not be a good ratio for you but some method that helps discipline you in these decisions will help you and this is not a bad one for many people. The other major factor is to avoid impulse buying or selling and to keep transaction costs at a very low level - and this usually means going with broad-based no-load index funds for much of the ride.<p>Doing the above will not make anyone rich. It will, however, ensure that you have the best chances of getting decent, normal returns on average over time while helping to preserve your capital as you go. If you want extraordinary returns, get them through your startup or by doing extraordinary things in your work. For your investments, the rule is different. You do not &quot;underperform&quot; by hitting averages with your investments. You simply meet the goal that should be the defining goal for most people in that area.
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code4tee将近 10 年前
Broadly speaking the US economy is quite healthy and people were expecting a correction in the stock market for some time. Within tech, it will have some negative impact on the plans of some companies as it will be harder to get lofty valuations based on &#x27;fluff&#x27;... during such times investors want to see hard facts and real results to back-up value--but that&#x27;s a broader trend thats been slowly developing for some time.<p>Internationally, China is clearly having a hard time dealing with the realities of &#x27;the market.&#x27; People have long since suspected a lot of the figures coming out of China were not accurate and everyone knows the place is rampant with corruption and such. Things are going to get a lot uglier there before it gets better.
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acjohnson55超过 9 年前
A whole lot of aphorisms in this commentary about falling knives and dead cats, but very little actual information.<p>If you&#x27;re trying to time the bottom you may as well take your money to the blackjack table. The quants are probably going to make a bunch of money, but if you&#x27;re just a regular person, you should probably just continue making your regularly scheduled 401k contributions and diversified investments. Historically speaking, all the movement is going to average out in the long run to modest gains.
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Cshelton将近 10 年前
I think it&#x27;s a bad sign when they can write an article and get it out in under 25 minutes...but by the time they release the article, the market has gone up by half the amount it fell on opening. This market is severely flawed.
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plg超过 9 年前
Unless you need to take your money out in the next couple of months (or unless you are facing a margin call) why not consider this as a fire sale? Your favourite stocks and mutual funds, ON SALE!
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kailuowang将近 10 年前
The global panic might have a good reason, this is probably the first time China goes through a true financial crisis. Their ability to deal with such situation is by and large unknown to anyone.
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ChuckMcM超过 9 年前
I find it fascinating how this discussion goes, Do we differentiate between &quot;healthy&quot; and &quot;strong&quot; ?<p>The US economy is, as far as I can tell, tethered in a macroeconomic sense, to the bill of the very expensive land wars it recently fought. The cost to the economy both in terms of government spending and workforce depletion as national guard troops were mobilized for duty in Iraq and Afghanistan.<p>American worker productivity has remained high, which has kept real wage growth low, as employers leverage they &quot;be thankful you even have a job&quot; meme over the heads of employees who perhaps just scraped by in the great recession or spent months or even years unemployed.<p>America&#x27;s largest trading partner, China, is running a partially managed economy with a fiat currency that is priced more on government policy than market realities. That pricing has lead to some unsustainable conditions in the Chinese economy which are being &quot;addressed&quot; by some pretty big moves (currency devaluation is not something you do lightly in the worlds second largest economy).<p>So the interesting question is how does the world see it? And how will it play out? Everyone has their bets, but and you can read about some of them in Barron&#x27;s or the Economist or the WSJ.<p>The current disaster is Chinese. By devaluing their currency they are effectively &quot;taking value&quot; from people who were trading with them relative to the partner&#x27;s home currency. So lets say someone like Apple contracts to buy 10 million iPhone 6 baseboards, in Rmb at an exchange rate of $100 per board, and now when it comes time to actually take delivery and buy the boards they cost Apple the equivalent of $150 each. Apple needs to pony up an additional half billion dollars for their phones. This then will hit their bottom line in terms of revenue, which means their stock price will go down (they won&#x27;t be as profitable a company) and so funds holding Apple will lose their value in proportion to their Apple stock. And China has done this by devaluing its currency.<p>It doesn&#x27;t change how strong Apple&#x27;s market presence is, or that they can sell a phone for a ton of money, but it changes the cost&#x2F;value equation faster than Apple can respond and so there is a disruption in their earnings. That will ripple across a lot of companies.<p>But is that a &#x27;health&#x27; issue for the American economy? Not really. Rather it puts pressure to restructure the costs of the economy into a different place. People still buy iPhones and will for the forseeable future. So the economy is still strong, but if the price of those iPhones doubles their volume will likely fall and so Apple&#x27;s earnings might be &#x27;weak&#x27;.<p>The stock market is responding to the adjustments in China, internalizing the lack of fiscal oversight in that economy, and pricing it into the value of companies that do a lot of business there. I expect a hell of a correction and some interesting new markets opening up (like India, Vietnam or Thailand if the Thai can get their governance under control) as the cost of doing business in China begins to more accurately reflect the real costs of doing business there.<p>EDIT: As folks have pointed out the currency hit is reversed, Apple would get its parts for less if they priced them in RMB vs Dollars. Any RMB they were holding in their cash pile would have lost value, so to the extent that their sales in China have not been moved into Euros (we know they aren&#x27;t repatriated into Dollars for tax reasons) are going to buy less than they did before.
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kazinator超过 9 年前
It&#x27;s only 10:21 Eastern Time on a Monday as I read this at 7:21 a.m. in the Pacific time zone. Like, wait for the trading to close, <i>then</i> tally up the damage.
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piratebroadcast超过 9 年前
I&#x27;m a Web Developer with a few years of experience on the East Coast. I do OK, salary wise. I missed the first bubble and am not on the East Coast. What should I expect from this? Layoffs mean more developer supply? Just trying to be cautious and prepared for worst case.
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kchoudhu超过 9 年前
Oh look, an opportunity to buy.
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geff82将近 10 年前
Nothing to be surprised here.<p>Anyway, finally this might be the perfect time to consider a market entry again after a lost year so far. Lost if you were refusing to buy at much too high prices. Let it go down some more days and invest then.
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dataker超过 9 年前
I&#x27;m assuming the Fed will not raise interest rates now.
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rdudek超过 9 年前
Stocks are rebounding. Someone made it off like a bandit this morning.
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ceejayoz将近 10 年前
Seesawing pretty heavily at this point. It was back up to -500ish a few minutes ago, then back to -800ish.
joezydeco将近 10 年前
How do oil prices factor into this? The price has already been diving in this last quarter. Oil stocks also make up a huge portion of the Dow formula.
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swalsh超过 9 年前
Best time to buy is when there&#x27;s blood in the streets :D
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vasilipupkin超过 9 年前
I just want to offer everyone a professional piece of advice. Large down moves in equity markets is exactly when you should buy equities because that&#x27;s when expected returns are at their highest.
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carsongross超过 9 年前
<i>&quot;There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.&quot;</i><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mises.org&#x2F;library&#x2F;human-action-0&#x2F;html&#x2F;pp&#x2F;818" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mises.org&#x2F;library&#x2F;human-action-0&#x2F;html&#x2F;pp&#x2F;818</a>
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jayess超过 9 年前
Maybe the failure of central banking bubble-blowing will finally be realized... I&#x27;m guessing not though.
IceColdCoder超过 9 年前
I&#x27;m just injecting some alternative thought here but I think one major question that needs to be asked about the health of the economy is:<p>&quot;How much of the weighted average person&#x27;s day is that person spending on survival&quot;.<p>I don&#x27;t see how slow shift to a 60-hour instead of a 40-hour work week is indicative of a healthy economy but I could be wrong. To me it seems that survival is taking more and more time when it should be taking less and less if the economy were actually growing. This is probably just a &quot;correction&quot; but I think we will be seeing more and more of these here soon. I&#x27;ve been looking at the robotics industry and I can see them going into full public view within the next decade. The results will be interesting.
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randomname2超过 9 年前
Markets are green again thanks in part to move in AAPL worth over 80B in market cap.<p>This happened after Tim Cook&#x27;s email to Jim Cramer, which may have violated Fair Disclosure regulations: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mobile.twitter.com&#x2F;carlquintanilla&#x2F;status&#x2F;635799629947404288" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mobile.twitter.com&#x2F;carlquintanilla&#x2F;status&#x2F;6357996299...</a>
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alistproducer2超过 9 年前
It&#x27;s easy to get out, hard to get back in. I moved 401k money out June 30th. Planned to get back in at SP 1900. If we close down &lt; 2% I&#x27;ll call bottom and get back in at close prices today. &gt; 2% loss and it signals real fear that is probably not over yet. Either way we&#x27;ll get a bounce tomorrow.
tzm超过 9 年前
From what I&#x27;ve heard from locals.. the recent chemical explosion triggered general fear of wide-spread corruption and an impending economic coup d&#x27;état from nationalists who want to disrupt the current power.
ultramancool将近 10 年前
How about a more useful index than the Dow, which fails to account for basic stuff like market cap? S&amp;P 500 % drop or something would be more meaningful.<p>EDIT: The page in question lists it actually, S&amp;P 500 down 4.1%.
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sbt超过 9 年前
I would recommend an article by George Magnus called &quot;The Chinese model is nearing its end&quot;, which was printed in the FT on Friday. You can bypass the paywall if you Google for it.
icedchai超过 9 年前
In the grand scheme (meaning, 5+ years), this is a small blip. Buy more.
williesleg超过 9 年前
Usually happens before a big political shift. Buy the viix.
meapix超过 9 年前
yeah, scratch your head, that&#x27;s the best you could do.
ojbyrne超过 9 年前
That graph has become significantly less panic-inducing.
mylons超过 9 年前
and now this headline isn&#x27;t relevant. stocks are UNCH or ^. <i>white knuckling it</i>
jebblue超过 9 年前
I wonder if any of this could be related to recent tensions in Korea?<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cnn.com&#x2F;2015&#x2F;08&#x2F;21&#x2F;asia&#x2F;koreas-tensions&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cnn.com&#x2F;2015&#x2F;08&#x2F;21&#x2F;asia&#x2F;koreas-tensions&#x2F;</a>
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cryoshon超过 9 年前
It&#x27;s hard for me to tell whether this is just a &quot;correction&quot; (massive deflation after exuberance) or an actual meltdown. I had predicted the actual meltdown for September of 2015, but I guess this is pretty close. I wonder how this will affect my life, if at all.<p>&quot;The New York Stock Exchange said it will halt trading for 15 minutes if the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 Index drops 7 percent.&quot; [0]<p>How is it fair that the markets get put on pause if they&#x27;re failing? I really don&#x27;t understand.<p>[0]:<a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2015-08-24&#x2F;nyse-will-suspend-stock-trading-if-s-p-500-index-plunges-7-" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2015-08-24&#x2F;nyse-will-...</a>
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jsf666超过 9 年前
Just fuck my shit up fam, jesus... and I was thinking about shorting it friday. Oh well, gotta wait it out. Just hope it won&#x27;t take 5 years not counting inflation